scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 07/01/14

[cscrim]

Miserable morning in Perth. We really need a change to this current set up.

[November13]

Yep if we don't get a change by the end of January we have had 2/3 of our winter written off. It's just awful. Could be a record no lying snow in December or January for me. I am not counting the 3 hours of slush as lying snow! Just a forgettable winter I am afraid. Even the BBC weather man last night looked depressed stating :"The wait for winter continues".

[NUT]

Started awful but sun's came out although the mild persists

[Zenarcher]

I think this winter has been okay so far, sure December didn't give anything great but I think in it's own way it was impressive with the Atlantic storms it was just constant for the whole month with parts of the UK recording some of the highest wind speeds for a long time. Some of the storms did miss the UK though and were very extreme out in the Atlantic some had over 70mph average wind speeds for a short time as they bombed out. If your into extreme weather December was very impressive. Also I remember the end of the first week of December brought snowfall to a few places in Scotland as well. Overall it was a mild month but I remember long range forecasts always hinted that December was going to be above average so I never expected it to be cold.

 

January so far has been more settled and I would say slightly colder, I've recorded my lowest temperatures of the winter this week. The first half of January was forecast to be average or mild but the very end of January into February is the time period where I think we may be heading into a colder weather pattern. You just never know what's around the corner. The models have been disagreeing with each other earlier than usual and keep changing about in the longer term.

[101_North]

Yep if we don't get a change by the end of January we have had 2/3 of our winter written off. It's just awful. Could be a record no lying snow in December or January for me. I am not counting the 3 hours of slush as lying snow! Just a forgettable winter I am afraid. Even the BBC weather man last night looked depressed stating :"The wait for winter continues".

 

You got 3hrs of slush????

 

B*s*ard!!!!

[skifreak]

To put this winter into a bit of perspective, here's three photos looking up Ski Tow Gully and the upper tows at Glencoe, the first two are from April 2012 and give a feel of what the ground looks like and the second was taken on Monday just gone.

A bit of measuring up the photos show there is around 4-4.5m of snow in Ski Tow Gully, the lift towers in the first photo are the closet to the camera in the third - notice how the two bars coming down nearest the camera are touching the snow in places and contrast to how high above the ground they are in the first.

Edited January 15, 2014 by skifreak

[howham]

Horrible wet grey day today. December was mild here but January hasn't. Lack of snow and frosts certainly but my max this month up to yesterday was 7.5C. Hardly exceptional.

[November13]

You got 3hrs of slush????

 

B*s*ard!!!!

Aye but I was at work! I only have the wife's evidence of that!LOL

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Don't know if this has been posted.

 

Could be of interest.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25743338

 

New maps show flooding risk in Scotland

 

New detailed maps showing which areas of Scotland are at risk of flooding have been made available to the public.

 

The online maps show different types of flooding, the likelihood of it happening and the likely impact.

 

 

Link to SEPA maps site:

 

http://www.sepa.org.uk/flooding/flood_maps.aspx

Edited January 15, 2014 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

A'noon. Couldn't face looking at charts today as I'm already square eyed.( I rarely get them right anyway)   After the crash and burn over the last couple of days I lost the thread so I have just been reading comments. What do you know, UKMO now appears to be drawing something out of the hat. Think I will just continue to read for a while now though.

Sun made an appearance around lunch today for about half an hour. The rest of the day has been horrible and damp, the kind that makes you feel cold even if it isn't that bad.

Still, onwards with the chase eh?

[Hairy Celt]

You got 3hrs of slush????

 

B*s*ard!!!!

We had a full day of thin snow cover. What you gonna call me?

[101_North]

We had a full day of thin snow cover. What you gonna call me?

 

I'd certainly like to test the capability of the site filters

[snow1975]

 

I think this winter has been okay so far, sure December didn't give anything great but I think in it's own way it was impressive with the Atlantic storms it was just constant for the whole month with parts of the UK recording some of the highest wind speeds for a long time. Some of the storms did miss the UK though and were very extreme out in the Atlantic some had over 70mph average wind speeds for a short time as they bombed out. If your into extreme weather December was very impressive. Also I remember the end of the first week of December brought snowfall to a few places in Scotland as well. Overall it was a mild month but I remember long range forecasts always hinted that December was going to be above average so I never expected it to be cold.

 

January so far has been more settled and I would say slightly colder, I've recorded my lowest temperatures of the winter this week. The first half of January was forecast to be average or mild but the very end of January into February is the time period where I think we may be heading into a colder weather pattern. You just never know what's around the corner. The models have been disagreeing with each other earlier than usual and keep changing about in the longer term.

 

Here's the GFS 12Z chart for 31st Jan, which shows a very cold westerly heading our way, if the Scandi block can bugger aff east and let it in. Potentially a snowy 1st Feb! That has a Jan 84 look about it!

Edited January 15, 2014 by snow1975

[Hairy Celt]

I'd certainly like to test the capability of the site filters

Give it s shot. There's a few tasty ones that get through.

 

A crap* day up here, cold, wet, cloudy, windy. Total contrast to yesterday.

 

*that's just for starters. We could play a silly game here seeing as the weather's so rubbish

[November13]

I can't believe the amount of mild air floating around north west Europe.Just seems an endless supply of the guff.

[Hairy Celt]

Not looking good when this happens in the middle of January in here... 

[November13]

Yes not good.I wonder if we will end up getting a cold spring .Surely there has to be some sort of natural counter balance .Big Innes was right.It's almost like we have two seasons now instead of four.It's summer May to October and Autumn November to April in terms of actual weather type.Very weird year.Frankly I am bored with non descript Autumn weather this winter.

[Northernlights]

Yes not good.I wonder if we will end up getting a cold spring .Surely there has to be some sort of natural counter balance .Big Innes was right.It's almost like we have two seasons now instead of four.It's summer May to October and Autumn November to April in terms of actual weather type.Very weird year.Frankly I am bored with non descript Autumn weather this winter.

 My thoughts exactly. I think a cold spring which is very common here in the north of Scotland because of the increased frequency of N and E winds in spring off a cold North Sea has  a very high chance of happening. Fodder stocks on farms are also very low because of last springs lack of growth and this be would the last thing livestock farmers in Scotland want this spring so it will probably will. Currently 5.9c and wet.

[GraemeB]

You know it's bad when there's no updates from BUS

 

[Blizzardo]

Looking at the model suite this morning I feel there are more positives. The UKMO and ECM are on the same page for a gradual slide towards colder conditions with snow chances for parts of Scotland next week and the GFS gets there in the end. The PV is still strong and situated where it makes it difficult for sustained cold but where East meets West snowfall is possible.

Edited January 16, 2014 by Blizzardo

[101_North]

People shuffling round town in heavy winter jackets, thick gloves, hats, scarves, ear muffs etc. - what are they going to do if (when - stay positive) it actually gets cold?

[Ravelin]

Today started off as a dark and misty 3.3C at 8am in Kemnay with light winds and a few drops of rain in the air. Now outside work in Dyce it's sunny with very little cloud that I can see and currently 5.2C.

 

From what I could make out from the models yesterday, and the model thread, they are trending in generally the right direction. Certainly cooler and less stormy than what we had at the end of 2013, but little real evidence of what most of us are desperately wanting i.e. a good cold, snowy spell.

[LomondSnowstorm]

First signs of the strat warming having a major tropospheric impact today? GFS 0Z gives proper blocking setup, albeit without deep cold uppers, in FI. Model consensus is trending colder with cooler uppers from the southeast, at the moment a no man's land for us between deep cold easterlies and an east/west battleground but if the heights continue to edge west on the modelling so too will the deep cold.

[over_the_rainbow]

Super foggy here this morning - and still is!

 

Glad to here above that there is something better in the charts for at some point! I have to say I agree with the kilted crew that the longer this goes on the more likely Spring will be chilly. x

[Hairy Celt]

Stunning sunrise this morning with lenticular clouds drifting and glowing. Guess who left their camera at home.

First signs of the strat warming having a major tropospheric impact today? GFS 0Z gives proper blocking setup, albeit without deep cold uppers, in FI. Model consensus is trending colder with cooler uppers from the southeast, at the moment a no man's land for us between deep cold easterlies and an east/west battleground but if the heights continue to edge west on the modelling so too will the deep cold.

Nice. I'll put the acid and sharps away for now.