Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Purga]

That's interesting in that the London ecm ens show big spread for fri/sat/sun and not that many cold runs. Perhaps they feel 5/6 c with overnight frosts will be subjectively cold this winter!

METO do hint at a brief colder possibility at the end of the week but any 'action' likely to be short lived and mostly confined to the north.

 

Extract below

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Jan 2014 to Sunday 2 Feb 2014:

A cold start at first, especially in central and eastern areas, with a risk of fog, frost and ice. Rain spreading southeast over much of the UK through Friday however, bringing milder conditions for most, but possibly preceded by snow for a time, mainly in the north. Temperatures initially cold, returning to around normal from the northwest.

 

As I posted yesterday the best to be hoped for for most folk in the UK would be a brief sleety mix perhaps?

Hopefully more but I really doubt it.

[IDO]

That met update ties in with IF update, colder at the end of next week and as a front crosses the UK introducing a milder flow there may be some temporary snow for the normal suspects on its leading edge, turning to rain as it moves through. None of the models hint at anything more substantial than that, and for most, like myself at sea level in surbubian London, cold rain, probably.

That could upgrade or downgrade at this range, but again neither GFS or ECM have this as a stalling uk battleground event, with the block holding its ground.

Positive in that some May get their first snow of this Winter.

Edited January 19, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Timbo]

METO do hint at a brief colder possibility at the end of the week but any 'action' likely to be short lived and mostly confined to the north.

 

Extract below

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Jan 2014 to Sunday 2 Feb 2014:

A cold start at first, especially in central and eastern areas, with a risk of fog, frost and ice. Rain spreading southeast over much of the UK through Friday however, bringing milder conditions for most, but possibly preceded by snow for a time, mainly in the north. Temperatures initially cold, returning to around normal from the northwest.

 

As I posted yesterday the best to be hoped for for most folk in the UK would be a brief sleety mix perhaps?

Hopefully more but I really doubt it.

We have all seen this many times before in battleground situations, this time we will be on the winning side with the cold making an impact on us by the end of the week..

Expect to see a major shift Westward on all the models by midweek, next weekend will bring some big changes

[Jason M]

We have all seen this many times before in battleground situations, this time we will be on the winning side with the cold making an impact on us by the end of the week..Expect to see a major shift Westward on all the models by midweek, next weekend will bring some big changes

Why do you expect this?

[Frosty.]

From little acorns....from no chance of wintry to something more seasonal is a big step forward, and this is just the beginning.

[Dancerwithwings]

Why do you expect this?

Surprised it took a full 8 mins on here for someone too ask...lol.... But yes, "Why do you expect this?"

[Timbo]

Why do you expect this?

if you look at the modes closely , each day there is slight movements westward, the ukmo has now picked up on this, this is just the start, the high to our east will grow a lot stronger, watch the low on Friday slide south east and the you see what i am seeing, 

[Joe Levy]

if you look at the modes closely , each day there is slight movements westward, the ukmo has now picked up on this, this is just the start, the high to our east will grow a lot stronger, watch the low on Friday slide south east and the you see what i am seeing, 

You may well be right, and I would love that to be the case, but be careful about speaking in absolutes! There is no certainty to this situation and dramatic changes either way could take place. There is evidence for a shift westward and we should hope that it continues, but there is no guarantee to this, so unlike you, I expect nothing, I only hope!

Edited January 19, 2014 by Joe Levy

[MrSunshine]

if you look at the modes closely , each day there is slight movements westward, the ukmo has now picked up on this, this is just the start, the high to our east will grow a lot stronger, watch the low on Friday slide south east and the you see what i am seeing, 

 

I fully support what he is saying, I've quietly been monitoring the westwards shift myself. He's right, as the high to our east gets stronger it will form a block causing low pressure to slide South East of the UK.

[nick sussex]

It would be unusual for three separate outputs to all be picking up on the wrong signal from a relatively short timeframe,so theres some support for the UKMO. The question is how much more can we squeeze out of this?

 

The ECM operational,run is one of the mildest for,De Bilt ,from only day 4 with a good,cluster of colder,solutions

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

 

Although it looks like this colder cluster eventually gets overrun by the Atlantic its not always that simple because a westwards correction may well then go onto develop further, and then everything following could also take a different route.

 

The ECM has dished out a lot of colder solutions that imploded, I really hope we see the reverse here and that it drops ,that hideous morning output.

[bluearmy]

if you look at the modes closely , each day there is slight movements westward, the ukmo has now picked up on this, this is just the start, the high to our east will grow a lot stronger, watch the low on Friday slide south east and the you see what i am seeing,

It isnt impossible but i would say it also needs the upstream to play ball and be slower and less intense. If upstream modelling is reliable then i would expect you to be half right re the stronger block but that the trough will make it past the uk. This is the fascinating point we are at here - big events upstream need only to be modelled slightly incorrectly for thertlock to our east to have a much bigger say. given the deep cold dropping into n america over the next week to ten days, younwouldnt be surprised if the models didnt quite have it right. Add to that the known badly modelled arctic high and tamara's earlier post resonates louder. The basic ingredients over the next 10 days - east american trough/alaskan ridge/developing arctic high/scandi block/mid atlantic ridge/powerful jet streaks. Got a pin?

[bluearmy]

It would be unusual for three separate outputs to all be picking up on the wrong signal from a relatively short timeframe,so theres some support for the UKMO. The question is how much more can we squeeze out of this? The ECM operational,run is one of the mildest for,De Bilt ,from only day 4 with a good,cluster of colder,solutions http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim Although it looks like this colder cluster eventually gets overrun by the Atlantic its not always that simple because a westwards correction may well then go onto develop further, and then everything following could also take a different route. The ECM has dished out a lot of colder solutions that imploded, I really hope we see the reverse here and that it drops ,that hideous morning output.

Funnily enough nick, i was looking at the berlin/warsaw ecm ens and thinking how big an outlier the gfs 00z op is to our east from day 1??

[Paul_1978]

If we're going to get just a few hours if snow before the rain washes it all away, then I'll not be too excited. I love this model watching but for me I'd rather have a decent week of it or none at all ;-)

Still watching with interest for a good cold spell (rather than a temporary 'snap')!

[Frosty.]

Winter is coming..nuff said

[johnholmes]

the quotes from Exeter are not model related really are they, and IF ONLY those that quote bits of it would actually quote it in its entirety the rest might benefit?

[Joe Levy]

Winter is coming..nuff said

It arrived in December it just hasn't been the sort of Winter most of us enjoy! 

[fergieweather]

That met update ties in with IF update, colder at the end of next week and as a front crosses the UK introducing a milder flow there may be some temporary snow for the normal suspects on its leading edge, turning to rain as it moves through. None of the models hint at anything more substantial than that, and for most, like myself at sea level in surbubian London, cold rain, probably.That could upgrade or downgrade at this range, but again neither GFS or ECM have this as a stalling uk battleground event, with the block holding its ground.Positive in that some May get their first snow of this Winter.

Yup, the key forecasting headache is Fri-Sun, given the more bullish retention of colder conditions throughout this period in both 00z UKMO-GM & MOGREPS-15. For now, Ops Centre have modified towards a somewhat more progressive story (a nod towards the EC/NCEP solutions) but haven't gone wholescale across to that notion as yet. Thus, as they emphasise, their model suites would threaten a more wintry outcome but they won't lean more towards that unless the other key centres come aboard. So, a transient risk of rain onto frozen surfaces and/or leading edge snow late Fri... thereafter, as per their assessment yesterday, the return (possibly as late as Sunday... see above) of broadly westerly mobility into the trend period. Some colder drier or showery phases between rain events into 10-15d period. They didn't jump aboard the notions of looming wintry threat/much colder (as some expressed here yesterday) and still don't as of now, but quite rightly they won't get drawn on stuff out in la-la land reaches of post-10 days given degree of model swing lately & lack of coherent signal.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yup, the key forecasting headache is Fri-Sun, given the more bullish retention of colder conditions throughout this period in both 00z UKMO-GM & MOGREPS-15. For now, Ops Centre have modified towards a somewhat more progressive story (a nod towards the EC/NCEP solutions) but haven't gone wholescale across to that notion as yet. Thus, as they emphasise, their model suites would threaten a more wintry outcome but they won't lean more towards that unless the other key centres come aboard. So, a transient risk of rain onto frozen surfaces and/or leading edge snow late Fri... thereafter, as per their assessment yesterday, the return (possibly as late as Sunday... see above) of broadly westerly mobility into the trend period. Some colder drier or showery phases between rain events into 10-15d period. They didn't jump aboard the notions of looming wintry threat/much colder (as some expressed here yesterday) and still don't as of now, but quite rightly they won't get drawn on stuff out in la-la land reaches of post-10 days given degree of model swing lately & lack of coherent signal.

Looks like snow to rain for the fortunate ones then.Followed by a westerly regime is the favourite outcome.

Ah well,when you haven't seen a flake this winter i guess its better than nothing.

Maybe the odd colder day with frost between Atlantic systems as we hit Feb.

[MR EXTREMES]

Tomasz Schafernaker Just said " and colder still as we go into the weekend"

I'd hold fire here the met office are not indicating this.

I'm afraid it's a complete mess with the mjo just stuck and not looking so good today I thought the models would settle by today.

It's really not as good as a few days ago really conflicting ideas.

But anything can happen I'd put any decent cold spell at 25% right now teleconnection are very conflicting.

[Purga]

the quotes from Exeter are not model related really are they, and IF ONLY those that quote bits of it would actually quote it in its entirety the rest might benefit?

I think you will find that if one quotes the METO forecast in it's entirity in this thread it gets deleted. If parts of are quoted relating to a particular aspect of model output under discussion then why not?

Most people are sensible enough to refer directly to the METO forecast page for the full update themselves.

[Captain Shortwave]

Thanks for the info Ian, certainly some interest towards the end of the week. The bbc week ahead forecast at least suggesting the chance that the heights over Scandinavia might start to influence the weather over the UK. Certainly a split in solutions with some odd pairings in the cold/mobile camps. This is far from over.

Oh maximum of just 3 degrees here on Friday... not mild for sure 

[Summer Sun]

This is how the beeb see things at the moment for the end of the week curtsey of Alex Deakin 15 minutes ago

 

Thursday

 

 

But its by Friday things could come interesting with high pressure over Scandinavia it could bring some cold air from the east or north east if it does it could be a very chilly day even a raw day across parts of England and wales, but weather fronts are trying to bump in from the west and they may eventually win out with the cold air in place for England and wales when the wet weather arrives there is just the possibility and thats all it is at this stage of some snow on Friday night

 

[Bobby]

The latest medium-range mean/anomaly maps (day 10)

 

NAEFS   ECM  

 

GEFS   GEM

 

All show a broadly similar picture of a cyclonic westerly flow over the UK with a notable area of the vortex to the NW, NE Canada/Greenland way. Somewhat of a split in the PV through the middle but not obviously favourable for us it seems considering what's to the NW and a fairly strong Azores high not far away to our SW.

 

Closer look at the European picture from NAEFS/ECM means

 

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

This is how the beeb see things at the moment for the end of the week curtsey of Alex Deakin 15 minutes ago

 

Thursday

 

 

But its by Friday things could come interesting with high pressure over Scandinavia it could bring some cold air from the east or north east if it does it could be a very chilly day even a raw day across parts of England and wales, but weather fronts are trying to bump in from the west and they may eventually win out with the cold air in place for England and wales when the wet weather arrives there is just the possibility and thats all it is at this stage of some snow on Friday night

 

Temps around average for the majority perhaps slightly below in the SE.

And then the Atlantic rolls in,lets be honest here,its hardly bumping into freezing frigid air is it?

Maybe some transient snow late Fri(judging by that graphic quite a bit of altitude will be required).

We may see upgrdes,and at this juncture we really are in desperate need of some!

[The Post-modern Winter]

As we are on the topic of BBC forecasts is there usually this much uncertainty past 5 days in the possible minimum/maximum temperatures? For my location there there is a difference of 10 degrees between possible minimum and maximum temps for Friday and the same for the following week. Surely the BBC forecast isn't usually so non-committal and must reflect the current uncertainty that exists despite some advocating a certain continuation of Atlantic dominance. If it is always like that at day 6 I apologise for this post.