Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Stuie]

ECM going for an 850hPa warm advection near the end of next week and through the weekend before switching back to cold advection on the 26th/27th. It is looking like yet another week before anything you could call wintry and then we would be looking at a SE flow for it.

 

 

Edit:Ensemble backs this up.

Edited January 19, 2014 by StuieW

[Jason M]

Looking through the models this morning the over riding signal is zonal, yet again. The last couple of days I've started to think the unthinkable ie that we could go through the entire winter without one single cold snap, which for a country at the UKs latitude would be stunning really if it occured.

However, I note the day 5 METO this morning and if everything was the other way round and METO was the only chart calling mild at day 5 I'd be very worried. On this basis I'd be very reluctant to assume its wrong at present. As I understand it METO runs to a higher resolution than the other models for the first 72 hours but drops away thereafter. I'm assuming that this is why the 144 chart is generally pretty poor IMO. At 120 though, it certainly has my attention, albeit I'd expect it would be one day of snow type affair.

Given where we stand at the moment, If someone offered me the day 5 METO I'd bank it all day long as I don't currently see the heralded pattern change. It just looks zonal to me and we seem to be hurtling at breakneck speed towards a top 3 mild winter. That said, still a way to go yet so we will see.

Edit METO has some support in the GEM ensembles

Edited January 19, 2014 by Jason M

[Frosty.]

How on earth can there be little or no chance of anything wintry next week with a UKMO 00z T+120 hours chart like this? it's bordering on excellent potential for coldies. As for the outlook as a whole, I think there are signs of wintry weather and think another Ecm run like the mega 12z last night will occur in the coming days.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Frosty.

[terrier]

So the ECM leads us all up the garden path again. What a surprise. It's been shocking this winter. The gfs has out performed it at days 5/6 this winter. Now back to this mornings output. The ukmo looks isolated in its output. Then the ECM is falling into line with the gfs again. With the Atlantic firing up over us by day 10 which means we are now looking at mid feb again.

[Purga]

A very average unsettled picture again this morning from all the models really and backed up by the ENS

 

Uncertainty remains as can be seen but no strong signal for proper cold or hyper mild. Usual British winter fare maybe?

[Stuie]

How on earth can there be little or no chance of anything wintry next week with a UKMO 00z T+120 hours chart like this? it's bordering on excellent potential for coldies. As for the outlook as a whole, I think there are signs of wintry weather and think another Ecm run like the mega 12z last night will occur in the coming days.

Frosty, it was reference to the ECM not the UKMO and certainly not ruling anything out but I don`t make the charts.

 

Terrier, the ECM hasn`t been woeful, it has been really consistant with itself.

[Jason M]

A couple of those GEFS though drop to -10. A little support for the METO micro cold snap?

[Frosty.]

Frosty, it was reference to the ECM not the UKMO and certainly not ruling anything out but I don`t make the charts.

 

 

Well I agree with steve, the ukmo 00z screams wintry potential, sorry gibbo

[Captain Shortwave]

A couple of those GEFS though drop to -10. A little support for the METO micro cold snap?

One member gets close (if not slightly better to the UKMO solution at day 6)

And this perhaps suggests the UKMO is not a sinker because....

The next Atlantic attack gets deflected well north which allows the next system to approach more favourably

And undercut the high.

[Jason M]

Well I agree with steve, the ukmo 00z screams wintry potential, sorry gibbo

Just worth pointing out that Gibbys assessment is based on the models as of midnight last night so he was looking at yesterday afternoons METO run presumably.

Edit. Captain shortwave - looking at the 85o plots posted by purga even those ensembles look brief cold spells. Not impossible for a longer cold spell but going to be a huge ask given the strength of the PV

Edited January 19, 2014 by Jason M

[Summer Sun]

Just worth pointing out that Gibbys assessment is based on the models as of midnight last night so he was looking at yesterday afternoons METO run presumably.

 

Given he's posted a link to the ECM 00z ensemble I would think he's looking at the 00z outputs?

[Frosty.]

Just worth pointing out that Gibbys assessment is based on the models as of midnight last night so he was looking at yesterday afternoons METO run presumably.

I say again, I agree with steve..mega ukmo 0z this fine morn..awesome

[Purga]

Well I agree with steve, the ukmo 00z screams wintry potential, sorry gibbo

Frosty, the UKMO T+144 chart however is terrible! Movement and drive is all from the west, the Block is collapsing and being pushed away. A forlorn unsupported hope.

 

 

 

The ECM mean is pretty clear on this as well

 

Unsettled and zonal as usual..

Edited January 19, 2014 by Purga

[Tim Bland]

I don't understand what is so great about the UKMO? 120hrs Cold uppers flirt with the east coast for 1 day with a few wintry showers in the east. By 144hrs the cold is shunted away by the ever dominant low pressure to our north and north west. This would probably flatten the pattern out in a similar fashion to GFS or ECM.

This really is a dire winter for cold and snow lovers.

[fergieweather]

Two knowledgeable and respected posters with vastly differing views at day 6. No wonder the rest of us are confused!

Exeter sped-up everything at end of raw UKMO-GM 00z to match more closely the EC/GFS consensus. Leading edge snow later Fri currently considered likely outcome across various districts (including to the south) albeit a rain event thereafter (or exclusively so for many).

[UV-RAY]

^^^ Thanks BA. The GEFS have been consistently saying no to next weekend's non-easterly and I thought we had got over this yesterday, till this morning's UKMO. However little support, so as you say an outside chance. The GEFS have now clustered (last two days) the D10 Atlantic Ridge as a sinker as the next wave of PV energy comes our way. It is good to hear that ECM are finally catching up with the GFS pattern for our region.

 

What happens next on the GEFS remains, like the ECM, varied, but the current main cluster is a stormy spell with a flatter flow (probably the GFS bias) so probably best to wait and see with regard to where we go from D12 +. So another two weeks of the Winter may go by to see if we can get a better pattern for cold, and waiting for a euro trough to run through the UK is not my ideal winter scenario as we can easily be on the wet side of that.

 

Its good to see that I am not the only one bemused by the ECM of late with sometimes it's whole suite amplifying the wrong pattern:

 

By Simon Keeling in Borth, Ceredigion 09:10hrs 19/01/2014

Temperature: 5.4  Weather: Sunny spells

Now I am frustrated! 

The ECMWF is really beginning to hack me off. 

Admittedly, other models have made errors too, but over the last couple of weeks the ECMWF seems to have gone from being the model of choice at medium ranges of 5 days or more, to an unreliable set of charts which occasionally predicts a hit of cold at days 9 and 10.  (source)

+1

 

Maybe IF or someone else could clarify if there has been any changes to the programming of the ECM, something is amiss that's for sure.

[SLEETY]

I'll keep it short and not ramble:

 

GFS okay

ECM crxp

UKMO good

 

The later part of the ECM shows what can happen if theres not enough amplication upstream and the PV phases with troughing near the UK.

 

This isn't so much whether you can get some continental air in like the UKMO but the angle of the approaching low and also how far ne the Azores high has moved, and how far east the pattern is,the ECM is really so far east and so flat especially over the USA that the PV will just edge out into the Atlantic.

 

So we could be less than a week away from a cold spell if the ukmo verifies,and its has been very consistent the last 2 runs.

 

if gfs or ecm verify probably a fair while to wait for a cold spell

 

the difference between the models continues and anyone looking beyond 5 days at the moment to try and make a forecast may as roll a couple of dice

 

quote gibby"In Summary today the pattern remains very Atlantic based with little to suggest any shift towards anything wintry within the forecast period of the runs."

 

sorry but I totally disagree with that summary unless you have completely ignored the ukmo output today which it appears you have,why?

[Summer Sun]

Latest GFS 8 day temperature anomaly shows an east west split again for England and wales average to slightly below average in the east though slightly above average around the east Anglia and SE coastal line, to the west we have average to slightly above average temperatures.

 

Most of mainland Scotland along with northern Ireland remains slightly below average

 

 

Normal temps left, expected temps right

 

 

Lots of chat on UKMO this morning having looked at it we have 2 days of cold 850's in some eastern parts before less cold 850's push in from the west, certainly cold enough from some snow on Friday in the east before probably going back to rain

 

Edited January 19, 2014 by Summer Sun

[snowbob]

Got to laugh at some posts this morning

Most on here have been hunting for anything remotely close to cold for months now.

We now have a shot at 120 on the ukmo.

Which may or may not happen point is it's there for once.

If ECM and gfs were showing this but ukmo were not then yeah prob would wait.

But I think we have a good chance here.

For what it's worth lately the ECM 0z run has been pretty poor of late only to be swept away by the 12z.

Just an observation.

Think I will do myself a favour now and stay off here till the afternoon

Can't read 6 hours worth of zonal and winters over posts because of one run this morning.

Edited January 19, 2014 by snowbob

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I see the peachy charts from yesterday have vanished into cyber space this morning.:(Very disappointing 0z runs with a very strong PV and associated jet.

The hunt for cold goes on,and on.

[Frosty.]

Exeter sped-up everything at end of raw UKMO-GM 00z to match more closely the EC/GFS consensus. Leading edge snow later Fri currently considered likely outcome across various districts (including to the south) albeit a rain event thereafter (or exclusively so for many).

so there are signs of something at least briefly wintry later in the week..

[Captain Shortwave]

Meanwhile the 06z GFS develops a slower upstream pattern, it's not good enough but a move towards the UKMO.

Quite bemused by some posts who have declared that an area of cold dense air sitting just to our east will be blown away like a piece of paper in the wind.... I don't think so, that high has nowhere to go, you can't sink that too far until the cold pooling underneath it has weakened sufficiently, which is certainly not the case with the UKMO charts, the jet would get deflected well north.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[SLEETY]

Frosty, the UKMO T+144 chart however is terrible! Movement and drive is all from the west, the Block is collapsing and being pushed away. A forlorn unsupported hope.

 

 

 

 

The ECM mean is pretty clear on this as well

 

 

Unsettled and zonal as usual..

 

so lets just ignore all  ukmo output before t+144 shall we which I always thought would be more reliable as it's in the earlier time frame and make a forecast on the chart 6 days away,excellent

[bluearmy]

the extended ecm ens remain consistent in the pattern they've been showing for several weeks now. the troughing leaving the vortex over ne canada and traversing the  shallow ridge that it builds ahead of it before dropping into europe.  this is also the gefs and gem ens theme (more on the gem shortly).  the mean troughing dropping east of the uk which means lee norwesters for any colder incursions. possibly a northerly if the ridge is a bit more amplified.  what we've seen verify over the past week is the disruption of the trough end up closer to the uk than the models were showing. as i said earlier, with europe to our s and se likely to be colder than currently, that does present the possibility of a se undercut ahead of an occlusion or warm front.  if the canadian vortex is too far east then the whole pattern retrogresses somewhat and we are in the type of position shown by steves charts from mid jan last year.

 

back to those gem ens.  longer term, they continue to shrink the canadian vortex and in the medium term, they are keen on repeated troughing just to our s/se.  there are also more than enough members sniffing around this mornings ukmo solution to take notice.

 

so all in all, the safe bet is more of the same but there are differences beginning to show which could well present some differing solutions for us. 

[Frosty.]

So we could be less than a week away from a cold spell if the ukmo verifies,and its has been very consistent the last 2 runs.

 

if gfs or ecm verify probably a fair while to wait for a cold spell

 

the difference between the models continues and anyone looking beyond 5 days at the moment to try and make a forecast may as roll a couple of dice

 

quote gibby"In Summary today the pattern remains very Atlantic based with little to suggest any shift towards anything wintry within the forecast period of the runs."

 

sorry but I totally disagree with that summary unless you have completely ignored the ukmo output today which it appears you have,why?

I'm glad i'm not the only one on here who sees wintry potential in the 0z output, yes i'm being positive because i'm fighting the wintry corner as I want to see a proper cold spell, as do most on here.