Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[UV-RAY]

Meanwhile the 06z GFS develops a slower upstream pattern, it's not good enough but a move towards the UKMO.

Quite bemused by some posts who have declared that an area of cold dense air sitting just to our east will blown away like a piece of paper in the wind.... I don't think so, that high has nowhere to go, you can't sink that too far until the cold pooling underneath it has weaken sufficiently, which is certainly not the case with the UKMO charts, the jet would get deflected well north.

I would agree but will we end up still on the wrong side of the block for the foreseeable, because I can't see any push westwards anytime soon.

[nick sussex]

I think theres a little confusion in here today re the UKMO output, the point really isn't so much the brief easterly but where that leaves it at T144hrs as compared to the ECM, even if the Atlantic pushes through after that it will do so at a more favourable angle and theres  more chance of getting to a colder medium term through the UKMO than the ECM.

 

The ECM is shocking today IMO at T144hrs its already a big slog to cold from there.

[SLEETY]

Exeter sped-up everything at end of raw UKMO-GM 00z to match more closely the EC/GFS consensus. Leading edge snow later Fri currently considered likely outcome across various districts (including to the south) albeit a rain event thereafter (or exclusively so for many).

 

I puzzled by this.I thought the Met never use the gfs to make a forecast and why has the MET dismissed it's own model and gone with  EC/GFS consensus instead.An explanation would be nice.

[Captain Shortwave]

I would agree but will we end up still on the wrong side of the block for the foreseeable, because I can't see any push westwards anytime soon.

We will have to see, but we have to start somewhere, I am rather unconvinced that any Atlantic attack would be ferocious as we enter week 2 than the output suggests, arctic high or not, there is a clear split and when the lows coming off the Canadian vortex approach the UK they should start to run out of steam. 

Of course my view could be described as biased in this situation of course

GFS yet again saying no to any significant Arctic ridging from the Pacific side. This model is really wanting to leave the Scandi on it's own here so it could just be more of the same with trough disruption close to the UK with cold air and on the flip side mild air not too far away.

[Long haul to mild]

Got to laugh at some posts this morningMost on here have been hunting for anything remotely close to cold for months now.We now have a shot at 120 on the ukmo.Which may or may not happen point is it's there for once. If ECM and gfs were showing this but ukmo were not then yeah prob would wait.But I think we have a good chance here.For what it's worth lately the ECM 0z run has been pretty poor of late only to be swept away by the 12z.Just an observation.Think I will do myself a favour now and stay off here till the afternoonCan't read 6 hours worth of zonal and winters over posts because of one run this morning.

Spot on Snowbob. The quality of some of the posts on here at the moment really is shocking. It's amazing the number of people who can tell us exactly what's going to happen to the weather in two weeks time; they should all be very rich if they can see the future that well.

[bluearmy]

flicking back through archive charts reveals that most of the time the models are doing a decent job on their ops to days 6/7.  the ecm goes awol on occasions days 8 to 10 but then so do all the others. the problem with the ecm is that it tends to go awol in delivering colder solutions whereas the gfs is more likely to do the opposite.  therefore, the issues lie with us rather than the models.   the ecm ens mean is a pretty good tool as my post from yesterday evening showed.  you can view the last ten ecm ens runs on ecmwf.int if you dont believe me.  

[SMU]

Anyone who cant see the UKMO (RAW) as snow potential then im afraid are looking in the wrong direction-

 

However thus far only perhaps 25% support for it from the means & ensembles & as a result the Met office ( See Ians post) support a faster evolution- NB though with the cautious mention of snow.

 

Interesting though is the big swing on the 06z GFS to the UKMO, however only three quarters of the way- but a significant step none the less-

 

punctuated by these 2 charts from the 00z V the 06z at 126 V 132

 

00z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014011900-6-138.png?0

06z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-6-132.png?6

 

That's around a 2/300 mile correction west.

 

The 00z ECM was poor, with the general theme of the Arctic high- lets see what reset we get on the 12z.

 

A point to terrior- everytime you post things as fact that are actually nonsense Im going to edit your signature to these 2 links.

 

The BEST run of the GFS daily consistently third at day 6- often forth.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

 

& the other 3 runs of the GFS

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/

Significantly worse with the 18z & 06z ( surprise surprise ) being worse still-

 

If you were putting into rank order- by NH

 

ECM 12z

UKMO

GFS 00z

GFS 12z

Canadian ( GEM)

GFS 06z

GFS 18z.

 

 

So currently we are watching the 6th worse run of the day roll out.

 

S

 

SLEETY- I will explain for Ian-  he has put GFS/ ECM consensus ( & probably aparge & MOGREPS) the consensus for now being that the solution offered by the UKMO doesn't have enough support from all the other models to create enough confidence- in doing so they are modifying the RAW towards the consensus ( the general agreement between the others ) to a faster solution.

We will know more by the 12z. 

Edited January 19, 2014 by Steve Murr

[IDO]

I think theres a little confusion in here today re the UKMO output, the point really isn't so much the brief easterly but where that leaves it at T144hrs as compared to the ECM, even if the Atlantic pushes through after that it will do so at a more favourable angle and theres  more chance of getting to a colder medium term through the UKMO than the ECM.

 

The ECM is shocking today IMO at T144hrs its already a big slog to cold from there.

 

Yes, a better starting position at T144. However as IF has already posted, the UK 0z run has been modified to be closer to GFS/ECM and with only marginal support from the main model's ens, it looks to me as the best possible solution at that timescale, so remains a more unlikely chart to verify.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Exeter sped-up everything at end of raw UKMO-GM 00z to match more closely the EC/GFS consensus. Leading edge snow later Fri currently considered likely outcome across various districts (including to the south) albeit a rain event thereafter (or exclusively so for many).

Hope so , GFS currently has +5 uppers running ahead of the system on Friday on it's latest run . 

[Jason M]

I think theres a little confusion in here today re the UKMO output, the point really isn't so much the brief easterly but where that leaves it at T144hrs as compared to the ECM, even if the Atlantic pushes through after that it will do so at a more favourable angle and theres  more chance of getting to a colder medium term through the UKMO than the ECM. The ECM is shocking today IMO at T144hrs its already a big slog to cold from there.

I think we will know where we stand tonight. Given that we're looking at day 5 here something has to give very quickly.

[bluearmy]

I puzzled by this.I thought the Met never use the gfs to make a forecast and why has the MET dismissed it's own model and gone with  EC/GFS consensus instead.An explanation would be nice.

 

i think the word consensus is the giveaway sleety !  the fact that they mention leading edge snow is a move to their model.

[Steve C]

I puzzled by this.I thought the Met never use the gfs to make a forecast and why has the MET dismissed it's own model and gone with EC/GFS consensus instead.An explanation would be nice.

He doesn't need to explain. It's great that he gives an insight into the Met Office's thinking.

 

Anyone would think he works full time for NW, with some of the posts directed towards him.

[Tim Bland]

I puzzled by this.I thought the Met never use the gfs to make a forecast and why has the MET dismissed it's own model and gone with  EC/GFS consensus instead.An explanation would be nice.

Calm down lol. They use every model available to then including the ECM and GFS. If they feel the correct solution is a blend of these who are we to question it and why do we deserve an explanation!

[Frosty.]

He doesn't need to explain. It's great that he gives an insight into the Met Office's thinking.

 

Anyone would think he works full time for NW, with some of the posts directed towards him.

I always like to see charts with forecasts, predictions to make it a fully rounded update with analyse breakdowns of what each model is showing and likely to go on to show in the extended range.

[nick sussex]

Shame the NAVGEM is such a dire model, its already further west at T96hrs.

 

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

I puzzled by this.I thought the Met never use the gfs to make a forecast and why has the MET dismissed it's own model and gone with  EC/GFS consensus instead.An explanation would be nice.

 

They surely wouldn't dismiss any model if was hinting at something similar to other NWP outputs at said range. They might favour outputs other than the GFS due to verification stats come the point the timeframe actually arrives. I hope that makes sense, but the models are only guessing at what the weather and overall climate might be above our shores, whether it be 2, 5 days or a week or two ahead. Sounds hopeful for a brief period of transitional snow for some which is clearly good news for the great many who are yet to see a snowflake. Overall the GEFS 0z ensembles hint at a colder week than average ahead with the majority of us getting colder rain at times, suggestive of a NW flow, although I haven't verified that last point. The final week of January is still fascinating as there is no overall consensus yet as to where we might be heading.

Edited January 19, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[egret]

no spin, no digs, everyone is entitled to their view, so let us all respect one another.

Simply posting what the anomaly charts at 500mb suggest this morning and last evening is the most likely upper air pattern. Simply accept or dismiss them but some reasons please for either.

My view on them is well known, reliable at about 70% IF they are consistent over time and with one another. The last week has shown no major differences between them and they consistently show as below.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

My interpretation of them is this

Blocking well north and signals for +ve heights along with similar over the Atlantic, -ve heights shown in the 'middle' of the chart between the two +ve areas and ridges. The overall pattern suggests a fairly mobile Atlantic south of about 55N with the combined effect of the trough mainly east of the UK and the Atlantic ridge showing a flow at 500mb of north of west over the UK. With only minor changes this has been the prediction for much of last week. This seems the most likely upper pattern based on these outputs.

 

Just what they may show this time next week I am unable to say. It could be a fairly marked change of pattern with the block well north extending south, most likely if it did occur, from west of north. Or the block may stay where it is and the Atlantic continue to push systems towards the UK with the NE block tending to at least slow down their progress near the UK, they could be diverted into southern Europe. Or the block may retreat and the Atlantic become the major player. I simply do not know. The MJO forecats do suggest that the latter is the least likely IF that forecast is correct.

 

Too finely balanced in my view to go fully for any of the 3 possibles I have mentioned. Certainly an interesting time for model watching

John, I like and respect your clear and well reasoned approach to commentaries on the model outputs. 

 

As you say each are entitled to their own 'take' and indeed to point out the reasons for their differences from those of others. 

 

I do however find name- calling distasteful and generally ignore the musings of those who are not prepared to present their arguments impersonally. 

 

The truth is that it is proving very frustrating trying to spot if and when cold winter weather might actually arrive this year and I for one am watching the Stratosphere thread with interest to see how changes there relate to surface wether conditions downstream. It appears that this year might be a very good test of whether SSW drives pattern change or is an early indicator of such change.

Edited January 19, 2014 by egret

[Paul White.]

This is a plea to Paul or whoever is able to alter the thread page. Could you please place a block button next to the quote or somewhere within a post from members. A nice big red block user button would be most welcome thanks

[Ali1977]

Better looking FI from the GFS, PV now over the UK and some proper SWW going on...

And a big arctic high building

Edited January 19, 2014 by Ali1977

[Jason M]

Shame the NAVGEM is such a dire model, its already further west at T96hrs.

 

navgemnh-0-96.png

I'd be loath to ignore even the minnows at day 4! By 120 it looks very METO like.

If we could just sneak one snow event out of what is almost certainly going to be a very mild winter................

[fluid dynamic]

Sure, recently, the ECM hasnt been of the quality we expect. As one member explained here recently, the output of all models is determined substantially by the input data. Makes sense. Thinking something's gone astray with the inputs to ECM

[SMU]

So then- remember there is usually 1 main trend of the day ( possibly 2)

 

the AM trend is one of moving the UKMO from the 3 runs-

 

GFS from very poor 0z to a mediocre middle ground @ 126 ( correction around 200 miles SW)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011906/gfsnh-0-132.png?6

 

NAVGEM - almost 100% swing with a battleground scenario @ 138- just the uppers not quite as cold ( Correction ~ 600 miles west)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014011906/navgemnh-0-138.png?19-11

 

JMA 00z only goes to 84 but looks tasty as well.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014011900/JN84-21.GIF?19-0

 

I think we should start concentrating on the 126 timeframe -....

 

S

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

FI just continues to show an awful lot of rain right the way through. Pretty dire run. 

That block is trying and trying and getting nowhere.

[gottolovethisweather]

So then- remember there is usually 1 main trend of the day ( possibly 2)

 

the AM trend is one of moving the UKMO from the 3 runs-

 

GFS from very poor 0z to a mediocre middle ground @ 126 ( correction around 200 miles SW)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011906/gfsnh-0-132.png?6

 

NAVGEM - almost 100% swing with a battleground scenario @ 138- just the uppers not quite as cold ( Correction ~ 600 miles west)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014011906/navgemnh-0-138.png?19-11

 

JMA 00z only goes to 84 but looks tasty as well.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014011900/JN84-21.GIF?19-0

 

I think we should start concentrating on the 126 timeframe -....

 

S

 

Agreed, it is at that timeframe (next Friday folks) where the various model suites appear to be struggling for an overall signal thereafter and certain charts appear to show a battle going on between East and West.

[Cloud 10]

Shame the NAVGEM is such a dire model, its already further west at T96hrs.

 

navgemnh-0-96.png

 

The COAMPS is not without interest as well.