Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[J10]

GFS looking very snowy for Southern areas  (esp SW) into next weekend. and to be honest more snow for Friday as well at least for a time, as the fronts hits colder air when it pushes in.

 

UKMO not as good as previously but not bad.

 

I think is one of those occasion when a  halfway house will turn out pretty decent to say the least.

[SMU]

So the ukmo falls in line with the gfs expect some kind of model consistency to appear now over next few days. Think any snow will be restricted to say Newcastle northwards with rest of us seeing a sleety rainy mix. Hats off to the gfs and ECM on this one. Though ukmo was too good to be true.

 

hats off to what....

 

Thats the GFS 12z-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfsnh-0-174.png?12

 

I will take that any day of the week in this type of Winter.

 

UKMO is poor tonight- watch the ECM uprgade now.

[TSNWK]

My my.. UKMO at 144 is poor, where did that come from... I think it's gonna take a bit more than some eye candy in GFS low res to lighten the mood in here...

Edited January 25, 2014 by TSNWK

[SMU]

To be fair Steve on your earlier post you did say its 100%wrong in these set ups????

 

I said it was 100% progressive- read the post

 

does the 12z look like the 06z????

[radiohead]

My my.. UKMO at 144 is poor, where did that come from... I think it's gonna take a bit more than some eye candy in GFS low res to lighten the mood in here...

 

I've often found that when the UKMO is different from a similar GFS/ECM at 120-144 it's almost always the UKMO which is wrong at that range rather than the other two.

[swfc]

I said it was 100% progressive- read the post

 

does the 12z look like the 06z

????

Sorry misread No it doesnt .Big swing tho on the output there i think youd agree

[The Eagle]

GFS is cold polar maritime all the way to 240. Not a bad consolation prize. Plenty of snow knocking around from 120 alternating locations. 

Edited January 25, 2014 by The Eagle

[Bobby]

 

Ouch...

UKMO +144

[SW Saltire]

Realistically, the clean snow showers easterly was an outsider. The UKMO has went from picking a colder run in comparison to its ensembles (the 00z) and has most likely produced a run that will be at the milder end of its ensembles this afternoon. This is hardly a disaster.

All the very knowledgable posters on this forum expected a halfway house scenario, which is exactly what appears to be suggested this afternoon. This will introduce lots of precipitation and let's hope for a little luck with regard to snowfall.

The best spell of this winter is almost guaranteed, let's hope it's just the start and turns out to be fruitful. Somewhere in the UK will get copious amounts of snow it would appear.

P.S surely the ECM will not produce another wild ensemble member tonight and pick something more towards the mean of the 00z or better.

[snowice]

GFS is cold polar maritime all the way to 240. Not a bad consolation prize. Plenty of snow knocking around from 120 alternating locations. 

yep don`t know what all the fuss is about the ukmo has cold uppers attacking from the west!

Edited January 25, 2014 by snowice

[weather eater]

I think people may be misreading the GFS- its going to be a stella run...

looks more like shandy than Stella to me.

[Mucka]

Almost comical difference between this mornings UKMO and this evenings but that's what can happen with these knife edge situations, it was amazing it was so consistent (and apparently so wrong) for so many runs. Now don't get me wrong, I no more believe tonight's solution but overall the output has moved in the wrong direction this evening.

Here is GEM 150 which just backs this trend up.

 

 

Still time for plenty more twists and turns to come though - rule nothing in, rule nothing out.

[supernova]

Did somebody fart?

 

All too familiar smell of disappointment suddenly pervading this forum as our great warhorse the UKMO appears to have gone lame whilst our fickle mare the GFS appears to fancy the challenge but doesn't quite have the necessary stamina to make it over the line despite better arctic heights and a more westerly displacement in earlier charts.

 

Start queuing up for the usual cliches involving the vertical displacement of various bathroom drying tools. Roll on ECM, thank the weather gods there are something like 10-20 more runs before we reach the point where winter might/might have/could have/still could start!

 

PS Would have loved to have posted a chart for discussion but not sure which is the least offensive for a minute, will revert when I find one!

 

PPS Considering there are 750 viewing this thread it has gone awfully quiet. Is someone else going to say it's only one run or have I got to do it?

Edited January 25, 2014 by supernova

[IDO]

GFS in FI is a rainfest. The UK could sink. Hopefully its wrong.

 

T204:  T264:  T300: 

 

The Z word.

[A.J]

For humour only, and judging the mood of a few in this thread, I feel the urge to trawl out one of my favourite post compilations from a few years back

 

"Models?....Pah!, they're all the same, GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, JMA, supermodels, bra and panty models, hell, even page 3 models.....they tantilize you with glimpes beyond your wildest fantasies, then they blow you out and reality beckons...."

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Now there's a surprise. Bobby's now posting UKMO charts after ignoring them for a few days. Wonder why that would be?

Too show the backtrack. To be fair he looks to have been in the right ignoring it unfortunately.

[Summer Sun]

The inevitable downgrade from UKMO has arrived

 

 

Looks like the met office text forecasts from the past few days were right with the Atlantic winning out later next week

Edited January 25, 2014 by Summer Sun

[shedhead]

Now there's a surprise. Bobby's now posting UKMO charts after ignoring them for a few days. Wonder why that would be?

Probably because, as many of us suspected/feared, the UKMO's longer term evolution has been wrong with regards to it strong Easterly for the middle of next week.

 

Really nothing to be gained by suggesting otherwise imo, the overall consensus has always been for the Atlantic to come bowling on back in after the briefest of continental feeds, so until that changes we probably have to accept it remains the most likely option....like it or not.

Edited January 25, 2014 by shedhead

[Iceaxecrampon]

Yes an interesting an varied wintry mix indeed for all next week - GFS has a possible battleground setup starting with an albeit weak easterly incursion from T+87.

 

A proper good squall passed through today brief hail now fading blue skies  - excellent.

 

I will be staying put Sunday night though.

 

 

Ian

[draztik]

Now there's a surprise. Bobby's now posting UKMO charts after ignoring them for a few days. Wonder why that would be?

Bobbys view seems to have been vindicated on tonights output ao far. Unfortunately, too many got swept up in the frenzy. I was asked where the Atlantic was last night, tis comin'. Ukmo is now broadly in line, and the gfs continues to lead the way this winter. Kudoes.

[IDO]

GFS 12z at T384:    

 

No last rites for the PV on this run.

[Mucka]

The inevitable downgrade from UKMO has arrived

 

 

Looks like the met were right with the Atlantic winning out later next week

 

Perhaps and just when they were moving the breakdown back to after the weekend in their 15 day forecast.

I wouldn't call this yet SS

[weather eater]

I still think we can get something of interest out of this, maybe not for everyone but some parts of the country may do well, in my book never underestimate the power of the PV or a Scandi block. Whatever model has moved to what and where is of little relevance now because regardless the 12z GFS will still be too progressive in the post 120hr range.

[Bobby]

Now there's a surprise. Bobby's now posting UKMO charts after ignoring them for a few days. Wonder why that would be?

 

My last post in this thread:

 

I feel that situations like this will show why the ECM is King, expecting the UKMO to back off on the 12z, although prepared to be wrong... it could hang on for a little longer before backing down or end up being right which will be a real trophy in the cabinet for the model. But I don't think so, anyway here we go.

 

... discussing the UKMO 00z... expected the UKMO 12z to backtrack because it didn't tie in the other models and signals, which it has. I know this makes me as popular as a leper but oh well.

Edited January 25, 2014 by Bobby

[Bristawl Si]

How can anyone, or any model, be "correct" on Saturday 25th Jan for a weather day that's a week away?!