Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[TEITS]

As the operationals have been covered excellently I thought I would look at the ensembles.

 

Much colder compared to yesterday for my location.

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140123/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

Even Cornwall is around -3C.

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140123/00/t850Cornwall.png

 

Looking at the UKMO and its consistency is very impressive especially with regards to the strength, position, orientation of the block to our NE.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

All models have there strengths and weaknesses. The GFS tends to be very good in a zonal pattern and also handles blocking over Greenland fairly well. The UKMO has always been very good with regards to blocking to our NE, hence why in the past we have always wanted the UKMO on board when E,lys are predicted.

 

As I said many days ago I feel the Met O forecast will change to become more wintry.

[Downpour]

I have been quite downbeat but that update from Gibby is bizarre, because on any neutral measure the model output has improved a notch today. That doesn't mean it will snow but to say the door has closed further maybe says more about the OP's own biases rather than what is actually in the output.

Edited January 23, 2014 by Downpour

[Ali1977]

Yesterday the fax backed the UKMO at 120, lets hope the met office are happy with the UKMO today, that would certainly back up the thought that a potential cold spell could be looming.  I would expect upgrades towards the UKMO from all models today if this was the case.  We are not talking the realms of FI here.

[shedhead]

Once again this morning things remain very finely balanced, but unlike yesterday when the overall trend was towards milder conditions, this morning that trend is towards colder.  However, whether we are any closer to nailing any one particular set up remains a mute point. On the face of it the consistancy shown by UKMO in the 120-144hr range is encouraging, but after what Ian said yesterday about Exeter's thoughts on their own model in the longer term it's probably wise to see if he has similar things to report today.

 

In my opinion it's events across the coming weekend that should still hold center stage for now though, because the potential is certainly there for places in this part of the world to see some very serious flooding....to add to the already very serious flooding that simply refuses to go away.

Edited January 23, 2014 by shedhead

[winterof79]

Todays 00z From De Bilt

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_00_60.png?1390468647289

Yesterdays 12z

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/pluim_06260_0_12_60.png?1390468692701

 

As Nick mentioned colder next week

Edited January 23, 2014 by winterof79

[Frosty.]

Get ya sledge dusted, the 00z charts are even more wintry than the 12z last night, the first taste of winter is close.

[TEITS]

Yes im not sure how Gibby can say the window has closed a little more for cold this morning.

If anything the wintry charts have upgraded since yesterday....

I don't mean any disrespect to Gibby but I strongly disagree with his summary of the models.

 

Firstly the UKMO has a LP sliding SE and as it does so will pull in colder E,lys into the circulation. The GFS has LPs sliding SE and when you already have existing cold over the UK and cold NW,lys following the sliding LP, then snowfall even at lower levels is likely.

 

The models have certainly changed towards a colder outlook today compared to yesterday.

[Gustywind]

Not sure about Gibby's update this morning, particularly his interpretation of the UKMO, but guess it's all subjective. My summary would be very unsettled into the weekend with plenty of rain/gales, snow on northern hills.

Into next week and threat of wintry weather increases for all, particularly but not exclusively Northern areas. Below average temps for all, feeling bitterly cold at times with easterly winds. Great uncertainty towards end of next week with expected Atlantic breakthrough now more 50:50.

[TSNWK]

I don't mean any disrespect to Gibby but I strongly disagree with his summary of the models.

 

Firstly the UKMO has a LP sliding SE and as it does so will pull in colder E,lys into the circulation. The GFS has LPs sliding SE and when you already have existing cold over the UK and cold NW,lys following the sliding LP, then snowfall even at lower levels is likely.

 

The models have certainly changed towards a colder outlook today compared to yesterday.

Yes I agree, but as respected poster I would be interested if Gibby could expand a litte on why he thinks the window is closing for cold, maybe he is seeing something different.

[Snow Grain]

Im quite confused.com ive been reading the posts above Gibbys which seemed to be positive for coldies and then i read Gibbys???

Please bear in mind that Gibby is not as experienced as some others on here, he tends to copy the met office updates, in other words plays it safe. The charts are currently showing far more wintry potential than stated in his latest update.

[Paul_1978]

Gibby tends to copy the met office updates

I don't think you could be more wrong.

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

 

I know this will probably have been posted- however this is the BEST ECM suite of the year & will 100% sway the meto office into changing the literature of their outlooks -

 

As we can see a significant amount of members for prolonged cold with the operational looking a little progressive.

 

another strong day & POSSIBLE kudus for the UKMO-

 

Of note the GFS does have good trough disruption at 168/192 which is actually better than the ECM so at this stage fair play if that's correct.

 

S

[Duane S.]

Im quite confused.com ive been reading the posts above Gibbys which seemed to be positive for coldies and then i read Gibbys???

 

Gibby does a great job at playing it safe, being the voice of reason and forecasting very much the here and now. For better foresight into what may happen at 5+ days you will be much better suited looking at posts by certain other posters other this forum.

[snowbob]

I can't speak for Gibby but I Think he is far more interested in the rainfall totals in the short term rather than the cold potential.

As stated in one of his posts last night.

With the 6z about to roll lets hope for some consistency with the models now

Very exciting 12z to come later too.

Edited January 23, 2014 by snowbob

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

 

I know this will probably have been posted- however this is the BEST ECM suite of the year & will 100% sway the meto office into changing the literature of their outlooks -

 

As we can see a significant amount of members for prolonged cold with the operational looking a little progressive.

 

another strong day & POSSIBLE kudus for the UKMO-

 

Of note the GFS does have good trough disruption at 168/192 which is actually better than the ECM so at this stage fair play if that's correct.

 

S

Hope so Steve-

The ensembles for De Bilt have most certainly trended colder.

Will be fascinating to see if GFS continues in the same vein as the Euro models.

METO update again awaited for signs of a move towards a colder outlook.(God knows iv'e only been waiting since like November)!

[Snow Grain]

I don't think you could be more wrong.

You can't tell me that anyone looking at today's output would have the window of opportunity for colder weather reduced from yesterday's output! Let's see what the met office updates shows later.

[Phantom2]

has Gibby been looking at the same charts as me this morning? all I can see is an ever increasing chance of cold next week ..I just don't see that "the door has closed" !!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Gibby does a great job at playing it safe, being the voice of reason and forecasting very much the here and now. For better foresight into what may happen at 5+ days you will be much better suited looking at posts by certain other posters other this forum.

That's if he's forecasting....but Gibby himself states he reports what the models are showing....

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

I don't think you could be more wrong.

Ditto, we all see different things on the models, and I see a very wintry spell developing through next week, especially further north and east, perhaps the southwest being least affected.

[tight isobar]

Always a big intrest of myself on this forum, is the quite divided interpretation of model spread.and how thers at times MASS differences to what certain members are seeing. (Intresting)!?

[Team Jo]

I think one page of personal preferences over who is more accurate over who is more than enough.....

 

Back to the Models please!

[TSNWK]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

 

I know this will probably have been posted- however this is the BEST ECM suite of the year & will 100% sway the meto office into changing the literature of their outlooks -

 

As we can see a significant amount of members for prolonged cold with the operational looking a little progressive.

 

another strong day & POSSIBLE kudus for the UKMO-

 

Of note the GFS does have good trough disruption at 168/192 which is actually better than the ECM so at this stage fair play if that's correct.

 

S

If this does land next week, then a Big Shout Out to JMA which was the first to suggest this pattern on its Sunday evening 192 chart - Think it is held reasonble regard by the Pros as well.

[SMU]

I will comment on the 'Gibby' post -

 

I think its fair to say that he doesn't get swept up in the cold hyperbole that's often created on here ( often that's generated from all corners- even me sometimes!!)

 

& there is still not enough confidence to go all out & say its nailed, with the ECM mean showing a breakdown after 2 days, so I would say the content looks ok, however maybe a little underwhelming on the cold commentary when things have moved towards cold overnight-

 

hey ho, theres no need to have to pick holes - at the end of the day gibbys posts are managed in the round - theres management speak for ya!

 

S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ditto, we all see different things on the models, and I see a very wintry spell developing through next week, especially further north and east, perhaps the southwest being least affected.

I see a spaghetti junction but with some arrows pointing towards a certain lane...do I trust them, which way do we go?  I agree with big Steve.....we can't commit yet.

 

BFTP

Edited January 23, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS 06Z has adjusted the scandy high slightly west as early as t36!!!