Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[pandit-scholar]

Up until T +96hrs, another decent run from the UKMO with a pretty strong Scandinavian block, and an easterly feed drawing the very cold uppers from the continent.

Edited January 26, 2014 by pandit-scholar

[Eskimo]

Much better 12z coming up, that little low in the Atlantic looks like a slider, slight negative tilt on its forward flank!!! 

 

Compared to...

Edited January 26, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[shaky]

Up until T +96hrs, another decent run from the UKMO with a pretty strong Scandinavian block, and an easterly feed drawing the very cold uppers from the continent.

now watch that low explode in the next frame!!

[swfc]

Everything further east at 120hrs on the 12z which is a shame because the low is better positioned.ukmo much the same as earlier

[Tim Bland]

GFS is Another wet rather than white run for most in Friday I'm afraid

[Ice Day]

The low is trying desperately to slide under on the GFS, not sure it's going to make it on this run.  Plenty of time for upgrades though!!!

 

[Cloud 10]

UKMO and GFS at 120 hrs.

 

ukmo..  gfs..

 

 

UKMO takes the low up and over,the GFS takes it down and under.

[shaky]

There you go just as I said!!low explodes!!only because it interacts with the pv to the northwest!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the UKMO pretty much matches the metoffice outlook really, rain pushing east on Friday followed by a chilly weekend in a polar maritime airflow

GFS just wants to eliminate the UK and replace it with more ocean by producing biblical amounts of rain by parking yet another low on top of us.

Edited January 26, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Long haul to mild]

Quite a difference of opinion at T144 as the GFS parks the low over the UK.

[Eskimo]

The massive differences between the GFS & UKMO really highlights the uncertainty. I would have been more concerned if they were identical, but as they aren't and show completely different outcomes, I wouldn't be too worried at the moment. The fact that there is huge variance between them two is quite astonishing at just 6 days away. Underestimating the block?

Edited January 26, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[chionomaniac]

The GFS doesn't look good for flooded areas parking the low over us.

 

UKMO 12Z again showing a big difference from its 00Z run.

 

Who knows what the end of next week will bring.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looking more like game set and match to the Atlantic by Friday.

Hate to say it but the evidence is overwhelming now.

All an all its disappointing...

The pink blob from hell just sitting between Canada and Greenland as it has pretty much all winter.

Edited January 26, 2014 by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

[Long haul to mild]

The massive differences between the GFS & UKMO really highlights the uncertainty. I would have been more concerned if they were identical, but as they aren't and show completely different outcomes, I wouldn't be too worried at the moment.

Yes, they could hardly be much different! I'm sure the GFS has something against the UK and actually wants us to sink into the sea......

[Wadey]

Quite a difference of opinion at T144 as the GFS parks the low over the UK.

What are the uppers with these 2 charts ?

[shaky]

The GFS doesn't look good for flooded areas parking the low over us. UKMO 12Z again showing a big difference from its 00Z run. Who knows what the end of next week will bring.

lets try not to worry about the end of the week chiono!!!the next 4 days could bring some surprise snowfalls to some areas with low thicknesses and light winds!!so lets look forward to that for the time being!!

[Long haul to mild]

What are the uppers with these 2 charts ?

Still chilly but to my untrained eye, it's going to be rain.

[swfc]

At 174 hours"be it fi"the 850s arnt terrible and better than the 6z.Altho from a nh profile its not a disaster by any means!!!

Edited January 26, 2014 by swfc

[Eskimo]

This really highlights the stark differences at the moment, it is honestly all to play for still!

06z - 3rd February.



12z - 3rd February



The differences are incredible, so I think people need not be concerned at all. 

[Snow Grain]

The GFS doesn't look good for flooded areas parking the low over us. UKMO 12Z again showing a big difference from its 00Z run. Who knows what the end of next week will bring.

Unfortunately it brings more rain. The charts are showing the atlantic strolling across the uk, I doubt if there will be upgrades for coldies. This afternoons ouputs says today's rain clearing then progressively getting cooler and drier through the week before more wet weather with rising temperatures arrives next weekend.

[Summer Sun]

Cold air coming in from the west to start February on this afternoon's UKMO not often we say that!

 

Edited January 26, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS isn't terrible if we can tweak the pattern to include a bit more forcing from the heights to the north. The jet is well positioned but the Atlantic train just parks itself over western Europe with frequent spells of heavy rain or showers. If the GFS verified I would probably be ticking over my thunderstorm counter over the coming weeks. It was collecting dust during the summer 

Edited January 26, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Snow Grain]

Cold air coming in from the west to start February on this afternoon's UKMO not often we say that!

 

Trouble is it won't be that cold. It will bring the sort of damp weather that will have us all praying for spring!

[IDO]

No surprise the GEM has done a U-Turn towards its mean and the GFS.

 

T222: 

[nick sussex]

The UKMO again flying from one scenario to another at an alarming rate, the GFS started off better with a shallower low but then this deepened quickly but its still miles better than the UKMO in terms of potential.

 

The models seem unable to decide how much deepening there'll be to this low and how much influence high pressure to the ne will be on any trough disruption near the UK.

 

It wouldn't be a surprise for the ECM to disagree with both the GFS and UKMO this evening, its that kind of set up, still don't rule out some snow off that low because theres bound to be a lot more changes given recent days.