Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[nick sussex]

Be interesting to see if any ECM ens are showing anything remotely cold tonight. Any chance or signs of cold potential Ian F???

I would look more at the wind directions than temperatures because some milder air will get into Europe as the troughing digs south to the west of the UK, of course we'd love to see some much colder solutions but those wind directions can tell us a lot regarding whether low pressure will be tracking to the south of the De Bilt region.

[Stuie]

Be interesting to see if any ECM ens are showing anything remotely cold tonight. Any chance or signs of cold potential Ian F???

He doesn`t have a crystal ball. There is plenty of info posted here and charts easily available to make your own mind up. 

That looks worse than how I mean it to come across.

[Whether Idle]

Over in the USA you'll see some differences with the speed and depth of a shortwave running east at T96hrs, the GFS is flatter upstream and  you can see how that effects its later output.

 

The latest from NCEP Indiana State Forecast is that they prefer a combo of the ECM/UKMO

 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...ISSUED AT 159 PM EST WED JAN 29 2014FOR EXACT VALUES...DONT THINK I CAN OUTFORECAST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.MAIN ISSUE UNCERTAINTY.THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS BEEN DOMINANT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS LATELYAND IS CLOSE TO THE BRITISH MODEL THIS TIME. THAT WOULD INDICATEIT WILL BE TOO COLD FOR ANYTHING BUT SNOW...AND POPS LOWER THANWHAT GFS WOULD HAVE. THIS IS WHAT I WILL USE.CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EVERYTHING WILL DEPEND ON EXACT LOCATION OFFRONT ALL MODELS DEVELOP OVER OHIO VALLEY. IF YOU BUY THEGFS...MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME BIG ISSUE. 

We're getting to last chance saloon time here in terms of seeing something more wintry develop, we don't have weeks to play with so we must not see the GFS verify upstream. Indeed we're at that stage now where we have to hope the ECM has latched onto the latest strat warming and will pull the pattern further west.

 

I think its unavoidable that the Siberian vortex will pop off some emergency supplies to its new friend over Canada, so it really comes down to whether any blocking to the east can withstand that assault.

 

Its just one run and we have seen the ECM overamplify the upstream pattern in its later output over much of the winter but we have to hope its finally got something right because we don't have many options left!

As a firm believer in the idea that patterns/ synoptic solutions  tend to lock in for the winter, I would suggest that the ECM is best ignored as the result this year has been jam tomorrow from ECM but the jam never arrives.  The blocks have proven to be unable to withstand the jet and the Atlantic fury driven by the American cold.  Unless you are of a masochistic nature I would advise ignoring the ECM and focussing on other model aspects like how much rain is due to fall in the next week.

Edited January 29, 2014 by Whether Idle

[Froze were the Days]

ECM's getting on my goat now, really not sure whether to believe it at present, but no surprise GFS is the most progressive/zonal.

[Argyle1980]

Looking at ECM at 144 does seem to be similar to ukmo at 144......

ECM 144

Maybe a small building block?

Never say never

[MR EXTREMES]

What did I say in the earlier post expect changes in the outputs in the next few days.

Colder second half of Feb.

Be back in the morning for the ecm ukmo will be the next to show better a couple of days after the ecm.

Winter is not done with us just yet.

[Mr Frost]

As a firm believer in the idea that patterns/ synoptic solutions tend to lock in for the winter, I would suggest that the ECM is best ignored as the result this year has been jam tomorrow from ECM but the jam never arrives. The blocks have proven to be unable to withstand the jet and the Atlantic fury driven by the American cold. Unless you are of a masochistic nature I would advise ignoring the ECM and focussing on other model aspects like how much rain is due to fall in the next week.

All the models have shown jam tomorrow charts...We all know the ECM will not verify as shown, its just nice to see a bit of naughty cold tonight.The thread is a more enjoyable read with a positive attitude. Reading that it is going to rain everyday or that a pattern is locked in for a month is about as exciting as watching a 1 hour documentary on quicksand followed by going for a bath in just my socks. Edited January 29, 2014 by Mr Frost

[Man With Beard]

Best thing about this chart for me is not the rejuvenated Scandi High but the fragmented nature of the PV. This morning it was almost in a tyre shape around Greenland - would have led to continuous rain for a week beyond the forecast date. This run restores hope that the PV will not just be allowed to fire low pressure bullets for ever and ever. 

Blocking to the east may be frustrating in the short term as it is keeping lows parked over the UK, but at least it means there is another major force alive in the Northern Hemisphere other than the Candian PV. I also had a glance at the Strat forecasts and was surprised to see it warming up a good bit on our side of the globe over the next 7-8 days, so I'm off to the strat thread for guidance as I haven't really got a clue about what impact this will have... 

[Jason M]

The irony is that we need the warmth to get a chance of a cold spell. If we can get a big push of warmth north out of Iberia it could promote height rises to our NE. Whilst it seems odds against I still wonder if there will be a twist before Feb is out.

[ANYWEATHER]

We are only at the end of January so plenty of scope for Snowfall nationwide...  But as things stand now Gfs says no to cold @T+240 /Ecm says yes to the new kid on the block. Lots of interesting weather coming up in the new month... 

[OldMetMan]

I've taken a step back for a while, as model output has been showing the same relentless onslaught of Atlantic systems, with little to suggest it would change any time soon.

 

The sliding SE LP that's happening now was something I envisaged would happen quite a while back, but it's a pretty lame affair it has to be said, and thereafter it's back to business as usual. The power of the Atlantic jet has been something else this winter so far, indeed I have seriously underestimated its persistence.

 

However, today's output, notably the ECM and GEM, have shown HP sticking around N Europe for much longer than shown hitherto, which suggests to me that maybe, just maybe, the extensive cold air over much of E Europe will find its way here - maybe within 2 weeks.

 

There are features on the 500mb flow I find interesting:

 

 

There are 2 very persistent upper highs, one NE of Scandinavia, the other over NW Canada. The former has been around for quite some time and if anything it has intensified. In my experience, such high-latitude HPs do tend to retrogress, which as this time of year would have obvious consequences - surface HP moving W with it and attendant E/NE flow.

 

I think the models have been seriously underestimating the depth - and persistence - of the cold air over Europe. But I was intrigued by the 12Z ECM, which long-term is showing a repeat performance of now, with LP sliding away SE, but again quickly followed by yet another intense Atlantic LP, but this time having the effect of putting the main 500mb vorticity much further W than it's been for ages. This suggests the possibility that, even though throughout the forecast period, HP is still too far E, as we move into February, the retrogression I mentioned may begin, IF the European cold air isn't seriously over-run in the short to mid-term.

 

There has been much speculation over on the Stratosphere thread about when, or if indeed at all, a warming will occur, and it's effect on zonality further down on the atmosphere. I accept that there is a link between these SSWs and a switch to colder, blocked conditions, but I do not think it's the whole story, that is, it doesn't mean if no SSW happens, we can't get cold conditions.

 

But I maintain that just as SSWs can happen very suddenly and dramatically, that an equivalent turnaround can occur in the troposphere, with blocking happening quite suddenly, or repositioning of existing blocks.

 

I think we need to see just how much "give" there is in the cold block in the coming days. If it holds fast, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a weakening of Atlantic flow and HP to the N and NE next month.

 

All is not lost cold lovers!

 

 

 

 

[lorenzo]

Tonights ECM...

 

 

 

 

[Whether Idle]

Tonights ECM...

Capture.PNG

lol

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 29th 2014 and taken from the Midsomer Norton and Radstock Weather Website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show a light Easterly flow over Britain and rather stronger cold winds in the NE. Cold weather will prevail over the coming 24-36 hours with a little rain or sleet in places in generally cloudy skies. On Friday a deepening area of Low pressure moves it's way towards Western Scotland with active fronts crossing steadily East and North across the UK bringing spells of heavy rain preceded by sleet or snow on Northern hills in strong Southerly winds veering more towards the West later and bringing a change to showery conditions with showers again turning wintry over the hills, even over the South at times over the weekend.

 

GFS then shows next week as very unsettled with a new deepening depression as early as Monday bringing rain and gales NE across the UK. Through the week further spells of heavy rain and strong winds continue with gales at times and temperatures close to average. In the lower resolution of the output tonight things show no real sign of significant change with winds between South and West throughout carrying further depressions up to the NW of the UK and pushing troughs NE across the UK with incessant spells of rain and showers alternating in temperatures well up to average.

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a resolute solution towards wet and windy weather predominating throughout the oncoming two weeks with upper 850 temperatures above the seasonal average beyond this weekend and very little indication of anything more reliably settled anywhere tonight.

 

UKMO shows a very unstable SW flow across the UK fuelled by a deep depression South of Iceland. Secondary Low pressure areas sweep NE across all areas bringing spells of heavy rain punctuated by heavy showers and squally winds from a SW point.

 

GEM tonight shows 4 separate bands of prolonged rainfall on a succession of disturbances running NE across the UK from a parent deep Low pressure area out in the Atlantic. Winds would occasionally be strong with gales in places and temperatures near average.

 

NAVGEM is broadly similar in type to the other output with rain and strong winds at times from a similar synoptic setup to the other models.

 

ECM shows very unsettled weather next week too with Low pressure areas barreling into the UK at times with rain and strong winds for all. One such Low pressure is shown to make an interesting diversion to the South of the UK later next week with the chance of an Easterly feed bringing the risk of snow for a time before a large Atlantic depression at Day 10 reclaims ground from the cold air again by next weekend.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts totally divorce the idea of the 216hr operational chart showing the pattern as before with a strong bias towards the likelihood of a deep depression out to the WNW of the British Isles with a SW airflow over all areas meaning troughs would be swinging NE across the UK in relatively mild air and strong winds at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif  

 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing West to East across the Atlantic and to the South of the UK, strengthening next week. Later it's orientation is shown to change to a more NE direction carrying it over the UK.

 

In Summary tonight the weather remains very unsettled and Atlantic driven for the foreseeable future. The ECM operation does provide a little interest for cold lovers at the end of next week but the chances of it verifying is once more very small as the Atlantic prowess once more looks too strong later next week. The most concerning factor from current output rather than lack of cold prospects is the continuing large amounts of rainfall occurring over the UK with little likelihood of any relief for flood stricken communities anytime soon.

[Bobby]

Getting bothered with a 1 day mild easterly on the ECM 9 days away isn't remotely worth the effort I'd say

 

12z ECM ens means at day 8 and 10 virtually the same as the 00z

 

 

[IDO]

The ECM mean at D10 is not even close to the op, with no heights close to what the op were showing:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&type=1

Looks very similar to the GFS mean: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=240&code=21&mode=0&carte=1

Need a lot more runs like that before I buy into another over amplified D10 ECM op run!

[Newberryone]

We are only at the end of January so plenty of scope for Snowfall nationwide...  But as things stand now Gfs says no to cold @T+240 /Ecm says yes to the new kid on the block. Lots of interesting weather coming up in the new month... 

The said same block which will more than likely do nothing but slow down the progress of these frontal systems, hence depositing higher rainfall totals, especially to Northwestern areas.

[Stuie]

The said same block which will more than likely do nothing but slow down the progress of these frontal systems, hence depositing higher rainfall totals, especially to Northwestern areas.

Feb 8th is a mile away in terms of precipitation and what type. It would be the Southwest that would probably get drenched again whereas the Northwest would have the potential for colder air/sleet/snow.

[Bobby]

I saved the ECM and NAEFS ensemble means day 8/+192hrs predictions for today, here's what they predicted

 

ECM ens NAEFS

 

The reality

 

 

I'd say that's a win for the ECM ens, predicted the general setup for us well

[Yarmy]

I saved the ECM and NAEFS ensemble means day 8/+192hrs predictions for today, here's what they predicted

 

ECM ens EDM1-192.GIF NAEFS naefs-1-0-192.png

 

The reality

 

 

I'd say that's a win for the ECM ens, predicted the general setup for us well

 

Not bad at all, although both did underestimate the block. It's just made the square root of flip all difference to us.

[Newberryone]

Feb 8th is a mile away in terms of precipitation and what type. It would be the Southwest that would probably get drenched again whereas the Northwest would have the potential for colder air/sleet/snow.

No doubt us Corkonians in the south of Ireland will be first in line for another good soaking so

[damianslaw]

I sound like a broken record but the key to a colder outlook is a more amplified flow developing over eastern side of USA/eastern seaboard. There were signals that this may be about to take place as we move into February thanks to heights developing strongly to over NE Pacific with a deep longwave trough setting up more centrally over N Canada/mid west with heights finally building over eastern USA/seaboard. However, its proving to be a more complicated picture.. at least for now, thanks to a vigorous PV going nowhere fast. Consequently the Canadian PV continues to rule the roost - fuelling the jet and cause a steep temp gradient, whilst at the same time the atlantic continues to hit a brick wall in the N Sea..

 

If we maintain the strong heights to our east and finally see some pressure waged on the PV, with the NE Pacific high we could finally see a more amplified flow take shape to our west, shifting the whole synoptical pattern westwards allowing a greater influence from the continental heights. We are on the verge of such a set up now, but alas there is no forcing on the PV and the atlantic will have no trouble stamping its mark.

 

What is different now compared to a month ago, is the Russian high and position of the azores, with stronger heights to our NE as well, all in turn is stretching the trough and maintaining more of a direct westerly veering NW at times, so temps preety average in the north, and only a little above in the south - it is hardly what I would describe a mild outlook... or autumnal as others keep saying - average max in Oct is 14 degrees compared to the average of 5-9 we are about to experience north-south.

 

Longer term - ECM is latching onto the potential change I state above, with the trough backing west and the Russian high retrogressing westwards increasing chance of a proper undercut not too long after.. Second half of Feb could be a very different kettle of fish.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Bit late catching up on the output / posts today - 12Z an upgrade for Saturday morning at T90 showing snow down to sea level around Manchester and Pennines - no charts posted as the 18Z is rolling out - the see-saw continues - only 272 users online speaks for itself though.

 

Ian

[Polar Bear]

Z

Edited January 29, 2014 by Polar Bear

[pdiddy]

First sniff of an undercut on GFS  at perhaps...