Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[ANYWEATHER]

Theres  no let-up in the unsettled  conditions in the near future. Lots of the wet stuff to come and wind storms judging by these charts, limited amounts of wintry precip, away from the usual areas...  

[Jason M]

hmm, maybe wait until next weekend, but if no major changes in the models by then I think the few coldies who have yet to give up (I'm one of them) may need to put out the white flags and offer unconditional surrender

 

A few hints today in some of the ensembles but nothing more than that. If we get through the entire winter without one single cold snap that will be astonishing for a country at our latitude (even allowing for gulf stream, westerly's, sods law etc). I'm 42 and have never witnessed a completely snow free winter so this could well be a 'first'. If 88 was the mild equivalent of the winter of 63 this isn't far behind.

[cooling climate]

with respect CC what on earth is the point of that? How many times at various time scales has GFS suggested a wintry outlook, then nothing at all like it suggests happens.

Until the upper air profile changes quite a lot then there is little prospect of any 'winter', other than for the high ground chiefly of Scotland, with brief wintiness elsewhere, ie a touch of frost and some sleet here and there.

The point was that due to the warming ongoing now in the stratosphere (regardless of what your

upper air profiles are showing you) I am saying there is a pattern change on the way to colder

conditions from around mid month onwards. I am sure you upper profiles will latch onto this at

some time or other. We have had this conversation before and you know my views.

[Backtrack]

The point was that due to the warming ongoing now in the stratosphere (regardless of what your

upper air profiles are showing you) I am saying there is a pattern change on the way to colder

conditions from around mid month onwards. I am sure you upper profiles will latch onto this at

some time or other. We have had this conversation before and you know my views.

 

Nah, I think we both know stratospheric warming generally takes longer than two weeks to filter down to the troposphere to effect our weather. I would however suggest that it may promote height rises over the Arctic, leading to an increased likelihood in easterly's, promoting a colder than average Spring.

 

Still all up in the air, of course. Stratospheric warming won't always lead to a pattern change, however the longevity of the current pattern would put the odds in our favour for a change some time soon. My punt would certainly be March, but not any sooner. 

Edited February 2, 2014 by Backtrack

[phil nw.]

Just looking further afield and we can see on the posted chart how the cold air over North America and Canada just goes on and on.

 

ECM T96hrs 

 

they really are having some Winter,especially east of the Rockies right across to the eastern seaboard with some of that cold as far south as the gulf states on occasions.

Over to Europe and notice the final demise of the eastern block by day 5 and the disappearance of the warm wedge of uppers over E,Europe,something colder over there later next week.

 

Meanwhile as already posted no real change for us with the remarkable persistance of that Canadian upper trough feeding the deep cold into the Atlantic fueling the jet heading this way.

 

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's overview of the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for this evening Sunday February 2nd 2014, the text lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models continue the projection of yet another dire set of outputs tonight. The first week is shown to be particularly unpleasant on occasions with Wednesday looking a particular case in question with heavy rain and severe gales a major feature of the day as an intense Winter Low drifts NE across the UK. With a disturbance moving steadily East tomorrow giving heavy rain on Monday then blustery showers on Tuesday and the prospect of further rain and showers late in the week and more especially next weekend there could be a lot of anxious moments to come for those threatened by floods and a continuation of little prospect of major improvements for those already stricken. Temperatures will be average or thereabouts with little meaningful frost, ice or snow anywhere.

 

GFS through it's second half shows very little difference than week 1 with further depressions rattling over the UK from the West with rain and strong winds at times with things trending slightly colder later after a temporary slight rise in temperatures through the middle of the period.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a bleak set of members tonight nearly without exception all showing very unsettled and often wet conditions over the period. The previous warming trend has also been eroded further with conditions at the surface often feeling rather chilly despite temperatures close to average overall.

 

UKMO tonight closes it's run next Saturday with yet another very deep Low over Ireland with a strong cyclonic flow over the UK with fronts delivering heavy rain then squally showers later in the day with severe gales over coasts and hills over the South and West.

 

GEM tonight shows a relentless period of gales and areas of heavy rain from next Saturday until the close of it's run on Wednesday week. This would induce major travel and flooding issues for the UK infrastructure should this setup verify.

 

NAVGEM is very little better with deep Low pressure always present close to or over the UK with strong winds and rain never more than a few hours a way from any one place in average temperatures.

 

ECM again tonight offers no relief from the unsettled and windy period with deep areas of Low pressure steaming in from the Atlantic repeatedly delivering prolonged rain bands then showers in gale force winds at times and temperatures close to average.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts remain about as poor as they could be with the likelihood of a deep depression or depressions out to the North and NW of the UK and an Azores High placed well South of it's home ground keeping the UK in a broad and very unstable SW flow with further spells of rain or showers at times in average temperatures.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow in a strong and flat mood as it flows directly West to east across the Atlantic and over Southern Britain or France powering it's relentless feed of low pressure to it's North with little if any evidence of significant change over the period covered by tonight's output.

 

In Summary there remains little cheer for those looking for a break from this fascinating but monotonous period of sustained wet and windy disruptive weather. Over the period of tonight's output all models show various opportunities for gales and heavy rain will little relief in between rain bouts as Low pressure after Low pressure maintains the prospect of almost unprecedented Winter rainfall for 2013-14 should the next few weeks charts verify. As of this morning's output with so much emphasis on wet and windy weather from the Atlantic there remains little chance of anything remotely wintry in the way of cold and snow in the next few weeks anywhere in the UK other than in mountainous areas in excess of 2000 feet or so in the North.

[tinybill]

Just looking further afield and we can see on the posted chart how the cold air over North America and Canada just goes on and on.

 

ECM T96hrs  ECH0-96.GIF.png

 

they really are having some Winter,especially east of the Rockies right across to the eastern seaboard with some of that cold as far south as the gulf states on occasions.

Over to Europe and notice the final demise of the eastern block by day 5 and the disappearance of the warm wedge of uppers over E,Europe,something colder over there later next week.

 

Meanwhile as already posted no real change for us with the remarkable persistance of that Canadian upper trough feeding the deep cold into the Atlantic fueling the jet heading this way.

watching country  file  that  only gave more  bad  news  rain  gales,till next  weekend!!

[KyleHenry]

We've got to go all the way out to ten days on the ECM 18z- Anomaly 500 - 240 chart http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=1&type=0&archive=0

To see any type of possible break in current conditions. Signs of the worlds biggest plug the upstream Alaskan/Kamchatka High begins to dissipate South .

Only here do we see weak heights forming above Baffin Island and push the main vortex poleward . As I say it's ten days away, realistically outcome is low at present unless a trend appears over the next three days.

That's the only crumb I see.

Edited February 2, 2014 by KyleHenry

[johnholmes]

The point was that due to the warming ongoing now in the stratosphere (regardless of what your

upper air profiles are showing you) I am saying there is a pattern change on the way to colder

conditions from around mid month onwards. I am sure you upper profiles will latch onto this at

some time or other. We have had this conversation before and you know my views.

 

oddly enough CC if you actually read your own and my post we seem, odd as that may sound to you and others, we are both suggesting no major change for two weeks be it upper air guidance or that from even higher in the atmosphere?

[Downpour]

@Gibby

"Fascinating but monotonous"

Hmm.

[mountain shadow]

2nd of Feb and not one post on the pub run?

I guess it was wet and windy.

[Jason M]

yep, wet windy until 300 hours, then calmer but by 384 the next massive jet streak is leaving Canada with our name all over it.

[Jason M]

Ensembles out to 162. No change... Could be any set from the last three months tbh.

 

If we don't get rid of the low heights by mid month the rainfall totals could ramp up even higher because a stronger sun and a polar vortex sat overhead is going to mean only one thing. Massive shower clouds between the frontal systems.

 

 

edit - 192 now, still the same  . That's enough for me...

Edited February 2, 2014 by Jason M

[Purga]

2nd of Feb and not one post on the pub run?

I guess it was wet and windy.

Brilliant - how did you guess??

[Tony27]

the thing is you have to keep on checking the models otherwise how will you know if there are good synoptics showing if you don't check them? i suspect most people are just lurking and not posting, they haven't gone away or chucked in the towel for this winter, it only takes about 5 mins to check the models sometimes less anyway esp if they are truly dire like they are now, just a quick glance at the charts and i can tell if it's good or bad, im not saying im an expert im only a novice but the charts are so obviously bad atm

Edited February 2, 2014 by Tony27

[shaky]

Well disagreement at 96 hours in regards to that low pressure coming up from the south!!gfs and ukmo carry on taking south but ecm all off a sudden has brought it back north again and across the channel!!!!!potential snow event north of the low maybe!!defo one to watch as its only 96 hours away and also we have had naff all in regards to snow all winter!!

[Ali1977]

Shame that GFS map at T384 isn't in the reliable time frame, that would be a proper arctic blast...

[Captain Shortwave]

Well disagreement at 96 hours in regards to that low pressure coming up from the south!!gfs and ukmo carry on taking south but ecm all off a sudden has brought it back north again and across the channel!!!!!potential snow event north of the low maybe!!defo one to watch as its only 96 hours away and also we have had naff all in regards to snow all winter!!

Given 850's are positive south of the M4 and into East Anglia, I would say that the chance of snow is virtually nil

 

Nothing else about the output needs to be said, I'm assuming duckweather.tv's model thread has had another 21 pages added since 5am this morning. 

Edited February 3, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

More interested in the trough disruption in fi on both gem and ECM. That could deliver something of interest though at that range, the models have likely not got a handle on how it might evolve.

[IDO]

No change this morning; the far reaches of FI on the GFS op holds some interest with regard to the jet:

 

 But compared to the mean jet it has little support: 

 

The UK at D16 remains at the end of the zonal train.

 

2m temps in week 2 still look average-slightly above for London: 

 

ECM and GEM are as you were:    

 

The SW and western districts are again in the firing line for substantive accumulated rainfall for the next 8 days, totals: 

 

GFS:   GEM: 

 

Looking at the GEFS there is no HLB showing, a weak Arctic high on one, the rest zonal with the continuation of the weak signal for transient ridging close to the south of the UK. The mean at T384:

 

 

A mean Icelandic Low, PV where it has been most of the Winter and the only MLB over in Siberia. A v.poor profile going into the last week of February.

 

The CFS daily goes out till 18 March and it is zonal from start to finish. At the end of the run the PV still has life left to probably continue the pattern till April:

 

 

 

 

[Timmytour]

In the meantime, while the latest GFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for those going to Europe skiing in the half term holiday, it does offer a deep FI chance of snow closer to home...

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run is another storm fest with vigorous depressions sweeping in off the atlantic with extreme frequency, very december esque  charts with rampant cyclogenesis with further torrential rain, flooding and damaging winds with barely a break separating us from the next onslaught... however, eventually we see a wintry pattern emerging by T+300 plus..perhaps the second ½ of this month will finally bring coldies something to cheer in this  inducing winter so far.

 

 

This is what I meant yesterday with my joke about waiting for our first proper cold snap of the winter, this would bring our first cold snap..I would snap this up sharpish 

Edited February 3, 2014 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

In the meantime, while the latest GFS doesn't paint a pretty picture for those going to Europe skiing in the half term holiday, it does offer a deep FI chance of snow closer to home...

Presumably because they wont be able to find the pistes because of the metres of snow ?? Looks like bucketloads of snow for the alps.

[picog]

Could it be 3rd time lucky?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[Purga]

GFS 00z FI is nice as has been said & GEM is not without it's attractions for next week

 

The rest and more reliable parts of the NWP are more of 'the usual'.

 

The ECM looks somewhat better in the latter stages but really indicates that the southward bias of the jet is just not far enough south and in fact simply exacerbates the extremely wet unsettled picture - especially for the south.