scotland Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Reporting Scotland weather just stated a chance of snow maybe to lower levels on Saturday!! 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

 

Snow level doesn't look that low for us in the central belt but you never know

 

 

edit: its actually quite low.

Edited February 5, 2014 by Ross Andrew Hemphill

[Buriedundersnow]

uksnowrisk.png

uksnowrisk (2).png

 

Snow level doesn't look that low for us in the central belt but you never know

 

 

edit: its actually quite low.

 

 

from the look of those charts anyone hoping for any snow would need 200m altitude minimum to get any snow out of that as the precipitation charts show for the same time with snow only for higher ground

 

 

850's don't look low enough either for low level snow

 

 

might be icy road condition with an early frost and temps at the surface staying low so road temps might be cold enough for ice to form

 

Edited February 5, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

The latest ECM has lows spawning ridiculously far south in the deepest reaches of the run, fingers crossed that we get a decent build of pressure towards Greenland at some point

 

 

at this stage of winter and with the PV winding down I don't think we would need a big push north to get something colder just enough to get things blocked off to our north and there is some ridging becoming evident again in the models so hopefully we can get a little something far enough north to help and there is also renewed heights creeping in to the arctic and if we can get it somewhere to our north like in the GEM 12z below that would help greatly as would give somewhere for any weak ridging to reach for and also help deflect lows into Europe to drag the cold air west

 

 

its all too far out to get excited about yet and the models are struggling again with where to place that small height rise in the arctic the ECM was more in line with the GEM chart but latest run has thing placed differently we will just have to wait and see how it goes as we progress

 

also the GFS has hinted at something like this a few times over the past couple of days

Edited February 5, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Northernlights]

Another dry bright day here today with a fresh SE wind. This wind was blowing cloud and rain onshore to the north side coastal regions which we could look at across the Firth from here. This evening there has been some drizzle and it is currently 4.2c

Another farmer in today expressing concern about a spring drought on this side of the Firth.He said however south of Dalwhinnie on the A9 the ground looks saturated but my neighbours who are ploughing today have ground that is drying so fast in the wind that it is dusty an hour later after the plough has passed. Most bizarre weather but just goes to show how locked in this pattern has been and I can"t remember when we last had a north wind.

[Allyw12]

http://firstwebcam.com/rochester/live-webcams-park-avenue  Anyone told them its not nice to share

[Highland Snow]

Nasty!

 

[lorenzo]

Annnnnd, another Atlantic Beastie inbound on the ECM, will look pretty nasty on tonights 12z.

 

Relentless jet this Winter, just completely unforgiving.

 

 

[Ravelin]

This is more like it, blue skies all around this morning with a bright low sun that was in just the wrong place i.e. straight ahead, as I drove into work this morning. Temp of 2.2/1.2C at 8am and light winds. Yesterdays 24mm of rain has the River Don out of it's banks and over the fields this morning though. Pity I didn't get a picture as it looked quite serene what with the flooded field, the swans taking advantage of it, and the slightly pink hued hills in the background.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

00z GFS is almost a cold run, good support from the ensembles:

 

 

Aye, we bit of cauld and snaw in there at times, at least higher up.

 

06Z 120

 

 

 

For fun. T+1,000,000,000,000

 

Edited February 6, 2014 by scottish skier

[edo]

that looks like a steve murr sausage on the 2nd chart...... painful when you log on and see the same page number as yesterday at this time

[skifreak]

A cold core high pressure sitting over Highland Scotland from the 15th to the 24th would do the snowsport areas just fine!!

[November13]

Meto going for possible transient snow for Central Scotland on Saturday...well it's a start!

[blitzen]

As they say in the world of darts....'180'!!   Jeez we better hope the ECM is overdoing this one for the 11th! Certainly looks like a "problem day"  with us in the firing line this time.

 

worrying really, as ECM has shown this feature a couple of times now and some other models are starting to touch on it too.

Wouldn't hang the washing out Misty Queen,  or the likes of HC and NL will be picking up your undies!!

Edited February 6, 2014 by Blitzen

[DR(S)NO]

A cold core high pressure sitting over Highland Scotland from the 15th to the 24th would do the snowsport areas just fine!!

Looks amazing for these areas just now,Given the ongoing opportunities to top up the snow and the real possibility that we could have a cold spring.....i was wondering if snyone had a view on exactly how far into the year snowsports could take place?Could we see a bit of this ,this summer??

[SW Saltire]

As they say in the world of darts....'180'!!   Jeez we better hope the ECM is overdoing this one for the 11th! Certainly looks like a "problem day"  with us in the firing line this time.

 

worrying really, as ECM has shown this feature a couple of times now and some other models are starting to touch on it too.

Wouldn't hang the washing out Misty Queen,  or the likes of HC and NL will be picking up your undies!!

That would be truly exceptional if that verified as shown. 100 mph+ would be widespread in the west, the record of 128 mph (on low level - I'm aware cairngorm recorded 172 or something close to that) could be not far from being challenged.

I think this low - as you said - is gaining support but I'd wager (hope) it gets downgraded but even so it would still be a monster.

As an aside, going back to the post that said the MetO mentioned transient snow Saturday. I was rather dissapointed on tonight's forecast tbh. It is a downgrade for under 200m snow really. I'm traveling back to Stirling that day so I hoped I'd encounter some snow but that looks very unlikely. The front is moving through more quickly than previously forecasted (around 4/5 in the morning) and there appears to be no low level snow, even those with moderate high will struggle for anything meaningful I'm afraid. The GFS and ECM do bring us some cool uppers behind depressions and hopefully this will give some of us a brief covering of snow, especially with height. Let's keep our fingers crossed

[Ruzzi]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There would appear to be a fair bit of interest for monday night into tuesday morning, be it with the GFS giving the west a fair shout at some potentially decent snow opportunites, or with the ECM throwing a wee monster at us

 

 

It'll certainly keep the interest levels up over the weekend at least, firstly though we have an unlikely chance at some transient snow on saturday, thereafter my eyes will be on tuesday.

[aggy]

Would we be looking at potential blizzard conditions to low levels ??

Am I reading this correct very deep low pressure with a cold core and snow ??

Other models taking this south and not as intense

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There would appear to be a fair bit of interest for monday night into tuesday morning, be it with the GFS giving the west a fair shout at some potentially decent snow opportunites, or with the ECM throwing a wee monster at us

 

 

It'll certainly keep the interest levels up over the weekend at least, firstly though we have an unlikely chance at some transient snow on saturday, thereafter my eyes will be on tuesday.

Love it!

 

T:384 but its a start.

[SW Saltire]

Would we be looking at potential blizzard conditions to low levels ??Am I reading this correct very deep low pressure with a cold core and snow ??Other models taking this south and not as intense

What exact timeframe are you referring to? I'm guessing to the charts posted above? The early Tuesday potential is certainly a good chance for many western areas. That is a showery source of precipitation, so blizzard potential for short spells on high ground if the GFS is correct. Not snowmagedon just yet. I'd be wary of those charts until they get within t-72 which is when the high res models can assess the detail. The 528 DAM is down the central spine of Scotland on those charts and needs to be further east for more widespread snow. If the GFS verified it would probably be the best short spell of winter weather for the west all winter.I was feeling positive about prospects into the second/third week of Februaty and beyond from a wintery/ less wet perspective, especially given stratospheric optimism always pointing towards this time frame. However after reading Recretos' post today (page 73 2nd or so post in) my optimism has been practically crushed. Transient snowfall looks like the best we can hope for out to towards the end of February at least... At least the Ski reports are doing fantastically Edited February 6, 2014 by SW Saltire

[Northernlights]

Just watched farmers on the Somerset Levels on TV evacuating their livestock to higher ground  a very diificult decision to take with all their stored feed ruined. Appeals for forage donations are appearing in the farming press for these evacuated animals. However our feed supplies are low up here after last years very cold spring and very dry summer and we are all counting the days to the start of grass growth.

 

 

My heart goes out to them  as this winter of locked in extreme weather continues be it wind, rainfall, snowfall on hills or drought in the lea of mountains

 

Extreme sculptures as well !!!!!

 

.https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=583731481720374

Edited February 6, 2014 by Northernlights

[Ruzzi]

What exact timeframe are you referring to? I'm guessing to the charts posted above? The early Tuesday potential is certainly a good chance for many western areas. That is a showery source of precipitation, so blizzard potential for short spells on high ground if the GFS is correct. Not snowmagedon just yet. I'd be wary of those charts until they get within t-72 which is when the high res models can assess the detail. The 528 DAM is down the central spine of Scotland on those charts and needs to be further east for more widespread snow. If the GFS verified it would probably be the best short spell of winter weather for the west all winter.I was feeling positive about prospects into the second/third week of Februaty and beyond from a wintery/ less wet perspective, especially given stratospheric optimism always pointing towards this time frame. However after reading Recretos' post today (page 73 2nd or so post in) my optimism has been practically crushed. Transient snowfall looks like the best we can hope for out to towards the end of February at least... At least the Ski reports are doing fantastically

 

Agreed, way to far out to pin down any detail yet, I was just highlighting the potential at the moment however judging by how this winter has went, It'll probably downgrade from now until tuesday where its 3C, windy, dull, and murky rain all day. If it happens to come in the way its being modelled at the moment, then places in the western half of the country with reasonable altitude, say above 150m could do fairly well, just something to follow over the next few runs and over the weekend as the detail starts to get pinned down better. Even just something to generate a bit of optimism or something other than depression.

[blitzen]

Interesting drive here. There must be an awful lot of  damage.........

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WI41yWgqglg&feature=youtu.be

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-of-ice-storm-in-slovenia-2014-2

Edited February 7, 2014 by Blitzen

[101_North]

A frost!! A proper scrape the car frost too!! Overnight low of around -2c. Cannot remember the last one LOL

[Ravelin]

A frost!! A proper scrape the car frost too!! Overnight low of around -2c. Cannot remember the last one LOL

Same here, -2C, dry, calm and a good frost this morning.