South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 28/03/14

[Captain Shortwave]

Totally agree Matt. There is a good reason why Lee Wick Farm, maybe 5 miles max from here was (or maybe still is?) recorded as the driest part of the country. Lack of convective showers would be a big factor in their lack of rainfall.

 

I remember as a kid/youth seeing a huge storm (lasting 1 to 2 hours) over Colchester (which caused greenhouse shattering hail) At the time I didn't realise why the storm just couldn't make it in my direction, even though the upper winds had a slight drift in my direction. I obviously wouldn't have realised the hail impact (many years before internet. :lol: ) but was somewhat exasperated and jealous! Easterly winds are not the best for us, but things can happen, even slightly inland, if there is good solar heating beforehand.

If the prevailing wind is from the east in summer, just write off any chances of convective rainfall. On the other hand if the wind is westerly and you pick up an afternoon sea breeze then you can form coastal fronts where warm air inland hits cooler air coming off the sea. Classic example was the Lowestoft air show a few years back where a light easterly set up during the afternoon and every innocuous cloud inland drifted over us and suddenly dumped torrential rain on the town, even hand thunder and a funnel cloud that afternoon. Was quite spectacular and localised. Though being drenched all afternoon wasn't the nicest thing in the world

[Steve C]

If the prevailing wind is from the east in summer, just write off any chances of convective rainfall. On the other hand if the wind is westerly and you pick up an afternoon sea breeze then you can form coastal fronts where warm air inland hits cooler air coming off the sea. Classic example was the Lowestoft air show a few years back where a light easterly set up during the afternoon and every innocuous cloud inland drifted over us and suddenly dumped torrential rain on the town, even hand thunder and a funnel cloud that afternoon. Was quite spectacular and localised. Though being drenched all afternoon wasn't the nicest thing in the world

That may have been the case with the Colchester storm (sea breeze meets prevailing wind) Unfortunately I can't remember the details well - I just remember it couldn't make progress in our direction and I was left with the sight of distant lightning flashes and growls of thunder only.

 

I should have added my last statement (about easterly winds) as a separate paragraph, as it makes no sense with what I'd written previously. :lol: I don't think we'd need to totally write off convective rainfall, with an easterly, especially a slack one, but I agree that we're not best placed in our region.

[Captain Shortwave]

In more important business the Mayday bank holiday looks pretty good weather-wise

I would say it is likely to dry all weekend, maybe a shower on Saturday perhaps which will also be the chilliest day. Sunday and Monday both look sunny and rather pleasant.

[john pike]

hi all

 

back from brandon

 

heres an update

 

tomorrow

 

 

an easterly flow but not strong

 

rainfall

 

starts dry except some drizzle to the the very far south

 

 

some heavier bursts in the afternoon

 

however some places to the north and far south east will only see light drizzle

 

temps

 

 

around 11-14 degrees

 

the lower likely to the east of our region

 

there will be some glimpses of the sun but not much

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

a weak east-north east flow

 

rainfall

 

 

after the early drizzle clears overnight it should stay dry

 

temps

 

 

no frost

 

watch for mist patches locally

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday

 

a variable flow east-north east

 

rainfall

 

 

the mornin starts dry but drizzly rain movin in around rush hour

 

 

by afternoon

 

showers effecting most but the far north of the region may stay dry

 

temps

 

 

around 11-13 degrees

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tuesday night

 

have to call a variable flow again but mainly east

 

rain

 

 

still got that drizzly muck but mainly south of our region

 

there may be the odd heavier burst overnight

 

north of our region still looks dry

 

temps

 

 

no frost

 

mist possible locally

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

a weak flow east-south east

 

rainfall

 

 

it should stay mainly dry

 

however late pm there is a risk of some heavy showers

 

temps

 

 

warmer around 14-16 degrees

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

bit tired tonight so will leave the rest until tomorrow

 

hope your all well

 

john

[Charltonkerry]

Hope everybody is feeling well, pleased to say that the misses foot improved slightly as they day went on, so she managed to produce a nice Sunday roast. A grey old morning, think we might had some drizzle during the night, but weather ain't looking very promising at the moment, seems a tad breezy out. Dentist then Harlow office today, got a busy week ahead, with many meetings and a second interview, and plenty of driving. Hope you all have a good one.

Edited April 28, 2014 by Charltonkerry

[Steve C]

Morning all.

 

Cloudy here and not inspiring at all.

 

Quite interesting reading through some other threads, particularly the Clegg v Farage one. Dear oh dear!

 

Have a good week all. It'll soon be the bank holiday, even if it might be chilly.

 

I'm not liking the look of the chart for Sunday morning's temperatures. I hope it ends up being a bit warmer than this!

 

 

 

[legrandefromage]

not one shower over the weekend and a lot warmer than expected. Was supposed to go cycling down in Surrey on Sunday but missed it due to, erm, many throne visits. Apparently it was a mudbath.

[lottiekent]

Morning

A nice start here after a low of 10c. Sunny at the moment which is good..need to cut the grass again and it's too wet out there after yesterday's rain!

[Biggin]

Sun popping out now and then and warm when its out too. No doubt we will brew some T storms for the west country later.

[Jax]

Afternoon all

 

After a cool and damp start it has finally warmed and brightened up, took a while to get doing, remained rather dull most of the day, apart from a quick trip out to the shop to claim my euro lotto winnings that is me done to today so looking to have an evening of leisure.

 

 

Hope all are having a good day, not long till the next long weekend either

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just went past chobham comman on the train and spotted what looked like a funnel cloud!! Disticnt rotation !!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Thursday looking like a real beefy convective day. Up to 1000j/kg CAPE. Downpours will be slow moving too as per the setup shown, which could lead to local flash flooding.

Let's see April out with a big BANG

[Keraunic]

Evening all. It's been lovely and sunny, and quite warm in Ippy today. Now it's looking to be a very nice evening.

Still hankering after storms, mind.

Hope you all had a good day.

[Methuselah]

It's been awful here, K; mist, murk and more mist.

[Keraunic]

It's been awful here, K; mist, murk and more mist.

Oh dear......we 'mist' that FB. (Sorry :O)

[Daniel*]

Good Evening. Another day of murky skies, some chilly nights set, as a cold front sweeps from the North.

Dinner time, Mexican hmmm

Have a nice evening, Strange the hotspots today was in Ireland of all places.

[Jax]

Ended the day rather bright, shame it had to wait till now to do it mind, also felt mild in the sunshine, that is all changing now though and temps are falling away in comparison and leading to a potential damp and misty night (that should help the joints not!), and the forecast on look east held no 'eastern' promise as it just confirmed the weather is turning cooler into the weekend.

 

Must be a bank holiday coming up then.

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening, decent end to the day here with lots of sunshine. Took until lunchtime to see the sun and had a few mid afternoon light showers.

The bank holiday weekend still looks great weatherwise

[Jax]

I thought the weekend looked rather cooler than recent temps have been had Matt

[HammerJack]

Evening all.

Good day here today. Not wall to wall sunshine, but still plenty of it. What made it even more plesent was the lack of wind, so even in the cloudy intervals it felt nice. Unlike yesterday, as when the sun went in and that wind made it feel cold.

Currently high level cloud, but it seems to be getting a tad misty over the docks in the distance.

[HammerJack]

The bank holiday weekend still looks great weatherwise

Im holding you to that mate. After the Easter weekend, it would be great to have a warm and sunny bank holiday :-DAny news on the job front?

[john pike]

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/12_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

 

at present the weekend looks dry

 

if not on the cool side

 

probably too far out to say yet when you look a the charts below

 

 

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/nao.html

[tadpole]

Good Evening. Another day of murky skies, some chilly nights set, as a cold front sweeps from the North.Dinner time, Mexican hmmm :clap:Have a nice evening, Strange the hotspots today was in Ireland of all places.

 

Daniel you live in the wrong part of south east london, it was lovely here this afternoon after a nippy start. Dark clouds rolled in around 7pm but that helps keep the temps up so I don't mind.

[john pike]

fax update

 

tonight

 

the odd shower around

 

but should be warm and dry

 

watch for mist locally

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

 

a weak east - north east flow

 

rainfall

 

 

looks likely sunny spells early afer any mist clears

 

pm may see some localised heavy showers

 

 

a possible rumble or 2 but that would be more likely he further south you are

 

the far north of our region may stay dry all day

 

temps

 

 

around 11-15 degrees

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

a weak north east flow

 

rain

 

 

 

 

showers through the night and the odd heavy burst

 

should clear before morning except persistant showers effecting north of our region

 

temps

 

no cold

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

 

a slight breeze from the south west south of our region

 

north east north of our region

 

rain

 

 

after the morning rain from the north clears

 

it looks to stay mainly dry

 

however we may see the odd heavy shower in the afternoon ( low risk though)

 

temps

 

around 12-15 degrees

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday night

 

a breezy west flow

 

rain

 

 

starts dry

 

but rain incoming before rush hour

 

not cold

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

thursday

 

a variable flow but looks westerly

 

rain

 

 

wash out today

 

temps

 

 

feeling chillier around 11-13 degrees

 

 

a rumble or 2 is possible but at present it looks low risk

 

back later with the rest

 

john

[Captain Shortwave]

Im holding you to that mate. After the Easter weekend, it would be great to have a warm and sunny bank holiday :-D

Any news on the job front?

Feeling quietly confident on a fine and sunny weekend, all models have high pressure over the UK throughout, ECM hinting at something more significant next week with pressure building strongly over or just east of the UK with temperatures into the 20s.

Ensemble mean for next Tuesday

Starting to feel positive about potentially our first warm/very warm spell of the year. 

 

No further new on the job front, will just continue to wait and of course plan a summer holiday (my first for many years)

Edited April 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave