Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[terrier]

Yet another awful run from the gfs 12z run. Think we're going to perhaps see some flooding problems over the next few weeks. From this Friday onwards it looks like heavy rain for many parts of. The uk. Not great charts for the midway point of the 6 week holidays.

[TonyH]

Bit premature to cancel hols as the weather this coming week is not going to be too bad bar Friday which could be a washout, and that not in all areas.

[johnholmes]

Yet another awful run from the gfs 12z run. Think we're going to perhaps see some flooding problems over the next few weeks. From this Friday onwards it looks like heavy rain for many parts of. The uk. Not great charts for the midway point of the 6 week holidays.

 

5 days ahead and remember how poor for most of the UK this weekend was to be. Sure for folk in the NW'ern areas of the UK it has been but not for many areas.

Writing of weeks ahead as some seem to like to do is not a very scientific appraisal of what the overall model outputs rae in my view.

[snow freak]

while I'm not complaining about this summer, it's been strange that although we have had quite consistent temperatures in the mid twenties we haven't had any really high temperatures of 30c or more which we do usually get for one or two days each summer.  I suppose we still have August and September to go yet though.  Would be nice to hit the 32c spot once or twice before the summer is out.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please try and remember that this is the "Model" Banter/Moans, And Ramps Thread. Some post's may be more suited to the Summer thread.

 

Many Thanks, PM.

Edited August 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

With the current outputs suggesting bertha is heading for us, theres precious little time left for any heat this summer. and for the pedantic im referring to widespread temps of 25c plus over more then 3 consecutive days... ie a hot spell.

Edited August 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove "Summers Over" Statement.

[Captain Shortwave]

With the current outputs suggesting bertha is heading for us, theres precious little time left for any heat this summer. and for the pedantic im referring to widespread temps of 25c plus over more then 3 consecutive days... ie a hot spell.

There is a very high probability that Bertha will be positioned differently in future runs compared to today as is the nature of modelling ex-tropical depressions. Things could look a lot different tomorrow.

Edited August 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

I have had to delete and edit some posts. Can we please refrain from using the term "Summers Over" in here.

Many Thanks, PM

Edited August 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[draztik]

There is a very high probability that Bertha will be positioned differently in future runs compared to today as is the nature of modelling ex-tropical depressions. Things could look a lot different tomorrow.

 

Or not. I mean, yes... its a possibility, naturally. But why folk are at pains to point out the obvious time and time over .....

We live in Britain. We are not some Isle of endless HP and warmth. Sooner or later we need to get real.

Edited August 3, 2014 by draztik

[Tony27]

the reality is it won't be day after day of rain, it will be a band or two of rain lasting a couple of hours then it will brighten up, why people overreact to charts like this is beyond me, there's still plenty of summer left, as i've said before september is not really a proper autumn month unless we get a well below average september, since when are temps ranging from 15c- 21c which is what we usually get in september autumn like? it's more like a spring month really

Edited August 3, 2014 by Tony27

[Captain Shortwave]

Or not. I mean, yes... its a possibility, naturally. But why folk are at pains to point out the obvious time and time over .....

We live in Britain. We are not some Isle of endless HP and warmth. Sooner or later we need to get real.

The reality is in the statistics for rainfall/temperature and sunshine amounts for the first two months of summer. I.E warmer, drier and sunnier than average. Reading the model discussion thread over the last two months and I'm sure many would have got the opposite impression of the summer so far.

I'm not taking sides over Bertha, only stating the fact that the models don't tend to deal with usual weather features (in this case an ex-tropical storm) very well and taking the day 6/7 charts as gospel and writing off the rest of summer isn't exactly the most prudent way forward. If the models are showing similar tomorrow evening then yes the going looks bad, but until then I am sitting on the fence on this. Heck the models might look worse tomorrow for all we know.

Here is the NOAA predicted track of Bertha up to Friday

 

As you can see, there is quite a large margin of error by the end of the week, this of course could greatly alter things downstream and where Bertha will end up.

Edited August 3, 2014 by Captain shortwave
Adding charts and inserting "stuff" here.

[cheese]

Or not. I mean, yes... its a possibility, naturally. But why folk are at pains to point out the obvious time and time over .....

We live in Britain. We are not some Isle of endless HP and warmth. Sooner or later we need to get real.

You're not one to accuse others of 'getting real' - you have been banging the drum for cool and unsettled conditions all summer, yet they have ALWAYS failed to materalise. Sure enough, we might get a lot of rain - or we might not. Reliable model output doesn't go very far so to assume any type of weather is locked in until September is foolish and unhelpful to less knowledgeable members who want to learn.

Edited August 3, 2014 by cheese

[Evening thunder]

In reply to posts after mine yesterday, yeah it can be frustrating, we have had a good summer here don't get me wrong, just can be a bit underwhelming seeing seemingly everywhere getting more interesting/warmer weather when I live for variety and extremes in weather.

 

I try to and do find interest in, and also positives about our weather/climate though.

 

Back to our climate and summer, this has been a decent one here, and will remain so overall unless I see rain every day and temps stuck in the teens, which isn't showing yet. Really what it looks like to me is maybe 2 or 3 days out of 7 with significant rain (could give a lot but I don't mind that,especially if in downpours/thunderstorms), with temps in the low 20's and reasonable sunshine in-between.

 

In fact some runs this evening and the Met Office forecasts downgrading Fridays low and/or rain totals here, as such I can't point to a date we will definitely get a lot of rain, just potential from showery/thundery days or fronts that may or may not hit us. We probably will get a decent fall here at some point but I won't mind.Obviously after this week it could get worse than that but I don't see why I should believe this evenings ECM day 7-10 more than this mornings, or that would last long. I am a tad disappointed any warm/hot spells or plumes (night time storm chance) seem off the agenda now but that could change before August's out.

[johnholmes]

With the current outputs suggesting bertha is heading for us, theres precious little time left for any heat this summer. and for the pedantic im referring to widespread temps of 25c plus over more then 3 consecutive days... ie a hot spell.

 

the trouble is PM his post gets quoted in full so it continues down the thread.

As to his comment, non meteorologically sound would be a kind reply!

 

I seem to recall similar comments by others prior to July, one of the warmest on record it turned out.

To those new to the forum do take care on which posters you believe, better still try to make your own mind up. 

[Polar Maritime]

Fixed it John.

[terrier]

Well looks to me like next 2 weeks at least look awful. Looking at the charts this morning from end of this week onwards looks like strong or servere gales in places with copious amounts of rain. Not great for mid point of summer holidays.

[mushymanrob]

the trouble is PM his post gets quoted in full so it continues down the thread.

As to his comment, non meteorologically sound would be a kind reply!

 

I seem to recall similar comments by others prior to July, one of the warmest on record it turned out.

To those new to the forum do take care on which posters you believe, better still try to make your own mind up. 

 

it all depends on what criteria one uses to define 'warmth/heat'. i made it pretty clear that IMHO we are unlikely to get another heatwave/hot spell, and by that i mean a spell of weather where temps top 25c+ for 3 consecutive days or more... now you might call it 'non meterologically sound', and no it isnt as a statement of certainty. its an opinion based on the time left and what the models are suggesting plus recent history of 'non good augusts'.so by the criteria i highlighted its a pretty good bet that we wont get another hot spell, although its not impossible.july one of the warmest on record?.. again its down to how you interpret the stats. i enjoyed 7 days of temps 25c+ , thats half of what i enjoyed last year. i dont deny the stats, but IF the passmark is 25c (which is what i use) then july wasnt much above average. now im not 'dissing' july, it was very nice.i said that by if a hot spell hadnt started by early july, its unlikely to happen, and i highlighted 15 hot summers as evidence for this. 2014 will not come close to being regarded as a 76, 90, 83, etc etc etc ... so was i wrong?

 

i see theres still confusion as to what autumn actually is. its a season, like all seasons, which hold a variety of weather types and natural phenomina. september is autumn, meterologically, unless someone knows better then the met men!

[DAVID SNOW]

With the Winter half of the year now behind us it's agood time to start a new thread to take us through the warmer part of the year.

This thread is for all general comments around the weather charts and model outputs wrt what members hope for or are disappointed in etc.

A more loosely based thread where you can give freer rein to your views but of course usual forum rules for respectful and polite postings still apply.

 

Ok continue when ready.

 

 Quoting Phils opening post to this thread for clarification purposes.

 

If a member gets the 'feeling' summer may be over based on years of their own personal experience then I don't see why they cant say so in this thread, we are after all only a few weeks away from the end of summer.

[Polar Maritime]

 Quoting Phils opening post to this thread for clarification purposes.

 

If a member gets the 'feeling' summer may be over based on years of their own personal experience then I don't see why they cant say so in this thread, we are after all only a few weeks away from the end of summer.

 

But it's such a basic/sweeping statement, As goes for "Winters over"... Which can course many a quibble on these threads.

 

Summer is not "over" until the end of August, As you say in a few weeks we can all blurt it out. But I do agree there is no Summer Weather being shown in the Models.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited August 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

Well looks to me like next 2 weeks at least look awful. Looking at the charts this morning from end of this week onwards looks like strong or servere gales in places with copious amounts of rain. Not great for mid point of summer holidays.

 

you are contradicting yourself there!

'the next 2 weeks...' then 'from the end of this week'

Just curious to know which you mean, GFS only goes out to day 16 or so?

[knocker]

I guess I have my analog for the yrs season...A look at the 1996 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season pic.twitter.com/PQprFadKQF

 

All historical Aug Tropical Storms that were w/in 100 mi of Bertha's exact current location. Notable: Barbara 1953 pic.twitter.com/OaNCEKQyXl

Edited August 4, 2014 by knocker

[h2005__uk__]

I'm still hoping for a couple more 30C days in my neck of the woods before summer's out.

I prefer periods of temps in the low/mid 20s with just one or two scorchers. It's more interesting (and comfortable) than long periods of mid/high 20s.

[mushymanrob]

But it's such a basic/sweeping statement, As goes for "Winters over"... Which can course many a quibble on these threads.

 

Summer is not "over" until the end of August, As you say in a few weeks we can all blurt it out. But I do agree there is no Summer Weather being shown in the Models.

 

Many Thanks, PM

 

that would be true if thats what i had said...

 

i qualified what i meant by summer by saying "in terms of a decent hot spell", and that certainly remains the case, whether im allowed to say it or not!

 

i dont think the models are showing any real sign of another widespread hot spell evolution (temps 25c+ over 3 consecutive days , MY definition of a hot spell) , the models have shifted away from a 'nearly' situation. the anomaly charts offer no hope and they go out to 14 days ahead. ok they could change, its NOT certain that we will not get a 'mushy hot spell', i just think its getting to be highly unlikely based not only on chart data output but past experience. im about 85% confident that in terms of a 'mushy hot spell', It's not looking good.

 

and i certainly want it to be!

 

going back to johns 'non meterologically sound' jibe... 80% of posts on here arent either, i hope john will be as quick to criticise in winter those who spout nonsense as he is to jump down my throat!

 Quoting Phils opening post to this thread for clarification purposes.

 

If a member gets the 'feeling' summer may be over based on years of their own personal experience then I don't see why they cant say so in this thread, we are after all only a few weeks away from the end of summer.

 

appreciate that

Edited August 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove "Summers Over" Comment.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Mushy that is what you said "Summers Over" Nothing qualifies the phrase... The same applies for Winter.

 

This is the last I shall be commenting on the subject, As it's pretty clear.

 

Many thanks, PM

Edited August 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

that would be true if thats what i had said...

 

i qualified what i meant by summer by saying "in terms of a decent hot spell", and that certainly remains the case, whether im allowed to say it or not!

 

i dont think the models are showing any real sign of another widespread hot spell evolution (temps 25c+ over 3 consecutive days , MY definition of a hot spell) , the models have shifted away from a 'nearly' situation. the anomaly charts offer no hope and they go out to 14 days ahead. ok they could change, its NOT certain that we will not get a 'mushy hot spell', i just think its getting to be highly unlikely based not only on chart data output but past experience. im about 85% confident that in terms of a 'mushy hot spell', summer IS over.

 

and i certainly dont want it to be!

 

going back to johns 'non meterologically sound' jibe... 80% of posts on here arent either, i hope john will be as quick to criticise in winter those who spout nonsense as he is to jump down my throat!

 

appreciate that

 

I stand by what I said mushy-it was not a jibe, a comment that I feel is correct, and yes I will be making similar comments if folk write off winter at what to me are silly time scales and with little meteorology to back their comment up.

Not sure why if I make a comment I am 'jumping down your throat'

Equally I made reference to what some folk were saying about July and summer in late June. Only to be proved wrong by the actual weather of June=one of the warmest in many years for most areas-not all of course.

Edited August 4, 2014 by johnholmes