Summer 2014 thread

[Derp Patrol]

I want the dew points to rise again.. dropped to 15C and the air feels quite cool again with the air temperature at 23C right now. 

[matty007]

Call me crazy, but I actually like humidity. 

[matty007]

The BBC have given me a very pleasant outlook for the first half of the week.

 

Good temps for Manchester, and most importantly in my opinion - low winds. And I'd be willing to bet that Thursday as you get nearer the time, will be forecast to be settled. 

 

This is shaping up to be a great Summer. Warm to hot temperatures, decent sunshine levels and humidity which is leading to the best storms we've seen in years. And I think August will take a similar route, don't see this nice weather diminishing for some time yet. 

[matty007]

And it's just hit me. It's my 22nd birthday today

 

Will play some footy later in the warm weather and have some beers in the garden as the Sun sets 

[matty007]

Yep very good forecast temperatures. I will probably see higher to be honest, maybe 27 or 28C on Thursday. Really a good summer so far!

 

Happy Birthday mate!

 

Cheers mate 

[Yarmy]

The Aussies don't seem that impressed with our "heatwave":

 

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/britons-brace-for-a-sort-of-heatwave-20140717-zu2pf.html

 

[cheese]

The Aussies don't seem that impressed with our "heatwave":

 

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/britons-brace-for-a-sort-of-heatwave-20140717-zu2pf.html

 

We are equally unimpressed with their recent 'cold snap'. It's all relative!

Edited July 21, 2014 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

We are equally unimpressed with their recent 'cold snap'. It's all relative!

And people in North America would be neither impressed by a British Heat wave or British cold spell

[cheese]

And people in North America would be neither impressed by a British Heat wave or British cold spell

True - but at the same time, the idea of a 'cool' summer in most of North America is completely laughable here. I find it funny that some people in Chicago complain because the high only reached 26C and apparently that's sooo cold.

 

We can do this all day, lol.

Edited July 21, 2014 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

True - but at the same time, the idea of a 'cool' summer in most of North America is completely laughable here. I find it funny that some people in Chicago complain because the high only reached 26C and apparently that's sooo cold.

 

We can do this all day, lol.

I have never heard of anyone in North America describing 26c as too cold?...I was in NYC one August when the temperature was 25c and this was described as perfection!

[Summer of 95]

Look on the city data forum for examples of people calling summers with an average high of 25C "a bit cool" or places with 700mm annual rainfall "too dry". 250 hours in a month "too much sun". And insisting New York is "subtropical". Mediterranean climates seem to be their idea of hell.

[MP-R]

I think people think all of North America is like a furnace in summer. Some family members of mine moved to Calgary last September and have yet to experience 'hot' weather. It was still snowing in May and they have found the Canadian summer a lot more pleasant than here in Britain. Having just come back for their summer break to Britain, they immediately commented how muggy it felt here. Equally, I met an American family from Philadelphia in London last Friday and they looked like they had just come out the Thames, draped in sweat and found 32C too hot. 

 

I'm sure most people without an intolerance of high temperatures would find 25C a perfect temperature for summer - warm enough for exercise, relaxing, walking about outside and working in an office, and in London's case, even taking the tube. 

[cheeky_monkey]

I think people think all of North America is like a furnace in summer. Some family members of mine moved to Calgary last September and have yet to experience 'hot' weather. It was still snowing in May and they have found the Canadian summer a lot more pleasant than here in Britain.

Having just moved back from Calgary it does get 'hot' in summer just that its a dry heat as humidity is often very low...summer 2012 was a hot summer with temperatures often into the 28-34c range but was very doable as it didn't come with high humidity..some days you could get the its +30c but fells like 26c scenario which you would never ever see here.

[Summer Sun]

Today's met office update suggests this period of largely dry and warm weather looks likely to persist until at least August 4th though the south look at risk of some thundery rain for a time later in the week before it begins to ease on Sunday

 

[Nick L]

Yeah the big problem with "British heat" is the humidity that almost always goes with it. In most of North America it's usually quite dry heat. I was in Vegas last May, and although temperatures were in the mid-30s, the air was so dry it didn't feel that hot. It dried my skin out badly though!

 

However, this isn't always the case, as anyone who has been to Florida in summer (like myself unfortunately) can testify.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've certainly noticed during holidays to central France that there have been occasions when I thought the temperature was around 28C (by analogy with how hot it typically feels in the UK) and was surprised to see that it was 32C.  

 

The UK always has the issue of being an island surrounded by water which makes it harder to get a relatively dry type of heat.  We do manage it on occasion, e.g. the hot weather that we had for much of July 2006 was often accompanied by relatively low humidity, whereas I found the hot spell at the end of July 2008 less comfortable despite the daytime temperatures being a little lower, due to humidity and warmer nights- one could similarly compare and contrast the Augusts of 1995 (a hot dry month) and 1997 (a hot humid one).

[Froze were the Days]

I've certainly noticed during holidays to central France that there have been occasions when I thought the temperature was around 28C (by analogy with how hot it typically feels in the UK) and was surprised to see that it was 32C.  

 

The UK always has the issue of being an island surrounded by water which makes it harder to get a relatively dry type of heat.  We do manage it on occasion, e.g. the hot weather that we had for much of July 2006 was often accompanied by relatively low humidity, whereas I found the hot spell at the end of July 2008 less comfortable despite the daytime temperatures being a little lower, due to humidity and warmer nights- one could similarly compare and contrast the Augusts of 1995 (a hot dry month) and 1997 (a hot humid one).

Remember Aug 97' pretty well - here in the south east we had many days at least 25c and many of those accompanied by high humidity as you say - in fact quite an outstanding month here in these parts. Personally feel summers in this back yard have NOT got any warmer/hotter than the late 90's.

[weatherguru14]

cant complain about the last 2 weeks apart from  a couple of days  its been lovely

[Weather-history]

Could end with a pretty decent index for summer 2014.

Manchester Summer Index

Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

1911 274

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267

1989 262

2013 260

1947 255

1933 251

1901 249

1921 249

2003 247

1925 246

2006 246

1996 245

1935 243

1994 240

1934 238

1940 238

1941 236

1970 235

1969 234

1973 234

1999 234

1997 232

1990 229

2014 228 up to 17th July

1917 228

1926 227

2005 224

1905 223

1932 223

1945 223

1967 223

1977 223

1914 222

1992 222

1908 220

1960 217

1950 216

1957 216

1968 215

1906 214

1942 214

1937 213

1939 213

1904 212

1929 211

2001 211

1903 209

1943 209

1991 207

1913 205

1971 205

1919 203

1961 203

1982 203

1951 201

1918 200

1944 200

2002 200

1930 199

1974 199

1979 199

1952 198

2000 198

1928 197

1962 197

1964 197

2004 197

1915 196

1981 196

1902 195

1963 194

1993 194

2009 194

1953 193

1966 192

1998 192

1988 191

2010 191

1910 190

1936 190

1965 189

1986 189

1916 188

1972 185

1958 184

1985 180

2011 179

1922 178

1938 177

1948 176

1927 175

1920 174

1923 174

2007 174

1931 173

1978 173

1980 173

1909 171

1946 170

1987 169

2008 168

2012 164

1924 158

1912 156

1956 155

1907 147

1954 143

Edited July 22, 2014 by Weather-history

[Interitus]

How 2006 can possibly rank below 2003 and 2013 seems incredible, so while I ponder this and the rationale behind the calculations, here is an interesting open article from the journal Weather looking some more at summer indices and summers in the latter half of the last century -http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06332.x/pdf

Edited July 22, 2014 by Interitus

[summer blizzard]

How 2006 can possibly rank below 2003 and 2013 seems incredible, so while I ponder this and the rationale behind the calculations, here is an interesting open article from the journal Weather looking some more at summer indices and summers in the latter half of the last century -http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06332.x/pdf

Probably consistency.

[TonyH]

This Summer has had consistency so yes

[Thundery wintry showers]

How 2006 can possibly rank below 2003 and 2013 seems incredible, so while I ponder this and the rationale behind the calculations, here is an interesting open article from the journal Weather looking some more at summer indices and summers in the latter half of the last century -http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06332.x/pdf

 

It is a Manchester summer index rather than a UK-wide index and I recall that June 2006 wasn't as spectacular sunshine wise in most central and northern parts of the country as it was in the south of England.  The reason is that although the 1st-12th were generally hot and sunny almost nationwide, from the 13th onwards we got a north-south split, and I recall numerous dry but cloudy days in Leeds associated with westerlies on the northern flank of a ridging Azores High.  August 2006 was a cloudy month in most parts of the British Isles with a combination of cool days and warm nights and near or above average rainfall.  I think those issues are probably what brought down the Manchester index for that summer.

 

Another factor to take into account is that since 2005 the Manchester sunshine figures have been based on a Kipp-Zonen sensor (rather than the Campbell-Stokes recorder used at Ringway until its closure at 2004).  I don't think this makes much difference in the winter half-year, but Kipp-Zonen sensors typically record between 10 and 20% less sunshine during the summer months (generally nearer 20% if sunshine is often very intermittent, nearer 10% if not).  This may result in the summer indexes for 2005-2013 coming out anomalously low relative to those up to 2004.

 

That article in Weather uses the Davis index and I don't think the Davis index gives as accurate a reflection of the prevailing public perception of a summer, as it uses mean temperature rather than maximum temperature, and rainfall totals rather than the number of wet days.  For example the Davis index would err on the positive side for a summer that was cloudy with frequent light rainfall and a combination of cool days and warm nights, and on the negative side for a summer that was generally dry and sunny with warm days and cool nights, but with the rainfall total swollen by a couple of intense downpours.

Edited July 22, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Interitus]

I realise that it is Manchester and 2006 was similar to 2013 for sunshine in that area (and much sunnier further north), it was drier, and most significantly (particularly as it is the largest factor in the equation) it was much warmer - these can all be seen in the climate summary maps on the MetO website. Consistent data to try in some of these indices is hard to come by because of the closing of the Met Office stations at Manchester airport in 2004, and Woodford in 2012 switching to Rostherne.

 

The Davis uses mean daily maximum temperature, not mean, and wouldn't err positive with frequent light rainfall if it was predominantly cloudy, though yes would be skewed by just one large downpour in an otherwise dry month as mentioned in the article. Likewise what constitutes a rainday (and how accurately recorded) may otherwise by a fine, warm, sunny day.

Recording and comparison of sunshine hours is of course fraught with caveats and a whole topic in itself.

 

With regards to indices, the Davis index in the article was derived after consideration of numerous others as shown in the abstract from the Weather article "An Optimum Summer Weather Index" -

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1968.tb07379.x/abstract

 

I have found the calculation used by Weather-history though not the original source, believe it may have been by Hughes though it is different to the one looked at in the abstract above.

Edited July 22, 2014 by Interitus

[blue&white]

How 2006 can possibly rank below 2003 and 2013 seems incredible, so while I ponder this and the rationale behind the calculations, here is an interesting open article from the journal Weather looking some more at summer indices and summers in the latter half of the last century -http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06332.x/pdf

 

Indeed.  I have seen the high ranking of 2013 now on this summer index a few times, and it leaves me a little confused and even depressed!  I live about a 20 minute drive away from Manchester, and 2013 doesn’t rank so highly from my experience where I live.July 2013, was definitely a brilliant month, especially compared to the recent summer months of the past 5-6 years.  However, when looking at weather records, a month like July isn’t really that far from the norm and is usually experienced every few summers, perhaps a little less sunny on the stats side, but I wouldn’t say it would be noticeable.Where I live, June was anything but consistent, it seemed that 70% of the total sunshine came in the first 10 days, and the following 3 weeks were dull as anything, with just average temperatures. August came in at average temperatures again, but well below average sunshine levels.I’m guessing a lack of rain then has really pushed it up the rankings?  Which I find odd, because it could be absolutely torrential rain for 5 days on dull days, but then be wall to wall sunshine for nearly 3 weeks, yet I guess the rain would considerably alter this ‘months’ rating.

Edited July 22, 2014 by blue&white