Summer 2014 thread

[Stormyking]

Really has turned into a fantastic summer, even here in Guernsey, almost constant days of wall to wall sunshine, along with a  good mix of awsome thunderstorms, 2 stand out ones was the Saturday just gone and one back at the end of May. My home Isle of Wight seems too also be having an awsome summer with heat and thunderstorms too!

 

Got a sneaky feeling though August may turn a bit unsettled but not too unsettled, thats my thought for the rest of the Summer

[summer blizzard]

I honestly don't remember the second half of June 06 being bad, indeed I gave June 06 9/10. July was utter perfection, no humidity but constant sunshine.

For me 2006 and 1995 beat 2003 and last years 3 week great spell.

[blue&white]

I think it really is a sign of how starved of sunshine we have become in this country since 2006.  Looking at the sunshine stats here  - http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html it shows that the very vast majority of places are on course to have final totals of average levels of sunshine or just slightly over this month.Yet this feels like a totally different country to me, to the one that I have be inhabitating for the last 6-7 years in summer.

Edited July 22, 2014 by blue&white

[blue&white]

I think what people are noticing the most this summer is the fact that we seem to have reverted back to the pattern of nice summer days being evenly distributed throughout the month.It seems to me, and June 2013 is a good example of this, that in recent years we have experienced these 7-10 days in a row of wall to wall sunshine that everybody gets excited about, followed by the rest of the period operating well below expected sunshine levels. So even though these months have on occasions (see june 2013) totalled expected sunshine levels, it really hasn't told the whole story of what the majority of the month was like.

Edited July 22, 2014 by blue&white

[Weather-history]

How 2006 can possibly rank below 2003 and 2013 seems incredible, so while I ponder this and the rationale behind the calculations, here is an interesting open article from the journal Weather looking some more at summer indices and summers in the latter half of the last century -http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06332.x/pdf

You are judging from human memory though, is human memory infallible? Trouble with human memory, it tends to exaggerate. Rose coloured glasses effect.I think it got as high as 277 at one stage at the end of July but August was a poor month. What brought down the index value was the increase number of rain days during August. August was a wet month for Manchester, rainfall totals were over 150% of the average.How many people realise just how wet August 2006 was in the Manchester area? There were only 7 dry days by definition. August 2006 was a mediocre month.

[MP-R]

It was the cloud amounts that let down August 2006 in this neck of the woods. Between the 2nd and 16th there was no rain at all here with a largely sunny spell between the 3rd and 10th.

[blue&white]

You are judging from human memory though, is human memory infallible? Trouble with human memory, it tends to exaggerate. Rose coloured glasses effect.I think it got as high as 277 at one stage at the end of July but August was a poor month. What brought down the index value was the increase number of rain days during August. August was a wet month for Manchester, rainfall totals were over 150% of the average.How many people realise just how wet August 2006 was in the Manchester area? There were only 7 dry days by definition.August 2006 was a mediocre month.

Would an august day that reached 22c with 5 hours of sunshine and no rain get rated higher than a day that reached 22c with 8 hours of sunshine but it rained constantly for 1 hour at 8.30pm?

[Captain Shortwave]

Well we had a week with a Euro high, a week with a Scandi high. Next....

A UK high. That will do nicely as I'm off for the week to north Wales

[Weather-history]

Would an august day that reached 22c with 5 hours of sunshine and no rain get rated higher than a day that reached 22c with 8 hours of sunshine but it rained constantly for 1 hour at 8.30pm?

It would be but it would be such a small amount. The index was devised for over a length of time such as a month or a season not for short periods. Edited July 22, 2014 by Weather-history

[Captain Shortwave]

Isn't a high right over the UK the best place for a heat wave? Or is it more in the North Sea?

Depends on a number of factors but usually having the high just east of the UK is the hottest as it allows heat to build northwards.

 

A wide range of places reaching the 80F mark including Scotland, Northern England with the highest temperature along the south coast which is no surprise really.

Edited July 22, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Interitus]

You are judging from human memory though, is human memory infallible? Trouble with human memory, it tends to exaggerate. Rose coloured glasses effect.I think it got as high as 277 at one stage at the end of July but August was a poor month. What brought down the index value was the increase number of rain days during August. August was a wet month for Manchester, rainfall totals were over 150% of the average.How many people realise just how wet August 2006 was in the Manchester area? There were only 7 dry days by definition.August 2006 was a mediocre month.

 

I have taken the time to look at plenty of data thanks.

 

 

Would an august day that reached 22c with 5 hours of sunshine and no rain get rated higher than a day that reached 22c with 8 hours of sunshine but it rained constantly for 1 hour at 8.30pm?

 

This is a problem with using rain days - even a 1 minute downpour would be the equivalent of 8.375 hours of sunshine

[hillbilly]

Wow, 1983 must have been a good summer. I never hear anyone talking about it though.

1983 was an excellent summer but in these parts I would put it 3rd after 1989 and best by a whisker 1984 a serious drought in these parts these being the best 3 summers of the 80s.The only summer that has been better since is 1995!

[blue&white]

I have taken the time to look at plenty of data thanks.

 

 

 

This is a problem with using rain days - even a 1 minute downpour would be the equivalent of 8.375 hours of sunshine

Yes, it seems for an accurate portrayal, rains weighting and ability to lower the days score should be decreased if a certain level of sunshine is passed. The greater the level of sunshine, the more weighting rain loses. It doesn't seem right that a downpout at 5am in june could go on to significantly lower the score of a day that goes onto have 10 hours of sunshine.

Edited July 22, 2014 by blue&white

[Weather-history]

This is a problem with using rain days - even a 1 minute downpour would be the equivalent of 8.375 hours of sunshine

Well what can you use?Rainfall totals are no good, you said you have taken time to look at plenty of data, you must know August 1981 then. A month on face value was wet but infact most of the rain fell on one night. There were a lot of dry days that month.This summer index was devised to gauge how good/bad summers were, it isn't full proof but I think it does its job pretty well.I devised the Manchester Winter Index, it's not full proof but I think it does its job sufficiently, last winter was the least wintriest for years and I think a lot of people would agree with this.

[Interitus]

Rating seasons is totally subjective, though in the link posted, the one example to use rain days by Hughes equated one rain day to 4.4 sun hours.

The winter index did it's job sure, though I recall that it was not without potential issues preventing wider application.

[hillbilly]

Well what can you use?Rainfall totals are no good, you said you have taken time to look at plenty of data, you must know August 1981 then. A month on face value was wet but infact most of the rain fell on one night. There were a lot of dry days that month.This summer index was devised to gauge how good/bad summers were, it isn't full proof but I think it does its job pretty well.I devised the Manchester Winter Index, it's not full proof but I think it does its job sufficiently, last winter was the least wintriest for years and I think a lot of people would agree with this.

Yes the index isn't perfect by any means,then again I am outside of the area really and here in the pennines the weather is a lot different than Manchester or leeds.I however was brought up as a farmer so weather at haymaking describes my summer ,which sways away from june and is mostly based from the 3rd week of june until the end of august.From memory 1981 was quite descent here as we had done most of our haymaking in july I remember Charles and Dianas wedding clearly [29th july?]was a lovely summers day and August was good too!I still cannot see how 2013 got so high,it must have been so much better out of these hills,other than the 3 weeks in july all I remember is days spoilt by cloud!!!

[damianslaw]

Here in the Lake District I would rate this summer so far as the best at this stage since 2006. Yes we have to see the consistent warmth of July 2013, though the next few days will give last July a good running.However, we have seen far more sunny days than at this point last year and it has been warmer. Last June wasn't that great here, but apart from a handful of wet days, the summer in the main so far has been a gloriously dry sunny pleasantly warm one.

 

Today has delivered the warmest conditions of the year so far, I don't record temperatures, but from car thermometer I would guess we nudged 27 degrees at some point this afternoon or were very close. Tomorrow looks a little warmer still.

 

If we see a dry warm August then I will rate it as the best since the infamous 1995 as August 2006 was very cloudy. 2003 was too humid for my personal liking, though stats would beat 2014 hands down (unless we see an August like 2003 but I can't see this). I've said how summer 1995 has been the best in my lifetime (only since 1978), but 1983, 1984, 1989 and 1990 were very good ones as well. 1984 and 1989 often forgotton but better than 2003 and 2006 in the NW.

[Nick L]

The pleasant warmth that persisted for most of the summer so far is starting to become a little uncomfortable for me now. Starting to have difficulties sleeping with the warm nights, although last night was comfortable.

Edited July 22, 2014 by Nick L

[MP-R]

Wouldn't mind another August 2005 myself. I'm certainly one for warmth/heat which I experienced three times throughout the month here in North Somerset but for those who find sleeping difficult in anything above 15C, the nights were also very pleasant. There was only a brief Atlantic spell down here between the 22nd-26th.

 

Also I think the problem with August last year was its overshadowing by July. At face value, August last year was very reasonable for many, certainly in my location. Warm throughout, not that much rain and average sunshine. The only disappointing spell was around midmonth but it was again very brief.

[AderynCoch]

Also I think the problem with August last year was its overshadowing by July. At face value, August last year was very reasonable for many, certainly in my location. Warm throughout, not that much rain and average sunshine..

Agree with this. It wasn't anything spectacular, but last August had plenty of decent summery weather on offer in contrast to summer months between 2007 and 2012.

 

August 2006 was a massive letdown though - the February 1982 of summer months.

[cheeky_monkey]

Agree with this. It wasn't anything spectacular, but last August had plenty of decent summery weather on offer in contrast to summer months between 2007 and 2012.

 

August 2006 was a massive letdown though - the February 1982 of summer months.

I enjoyed Aug 2006 after the unrelenting heat of July 2006 Aug was a refreshing release..cloudy and much cooler but relatively dry.

[laserguy]

Wow, it's already 25C in Manchester and it's not even noon yet. I saw 28C yesterday, making it the hottest day of the year so far. Hoping to see a 29C today, 30C is pushing it a bit.

 

And I've somehow got to sleep thru' that this afternoon. Dy'know, I've had 3hrs kip since 0600 Sunday. In that time I've squeezed in two 12hr night shifts - and will be back at it in in less than six hours from now. Those 3hrs kip came yesterday afternoon by kipping in the nippa's bedroom (NW facing,cooler,darker), two electric fans and a whole bunch of drugs. Ah, to be in England in the summertime. No wonder there's so many more murders an' stuff.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Ranking systems are always going to be subjective but I think the idea of having a summer index has always been based on the premise that the majority of the population prefers summer conditions that are warmer, sunnier and drier than average.  The choice of indices and weights to assign to temperature, sunshine and rainfall is much harder to determine on this basis as there is much less of a strongly-established "majority preference" on that front.

 

I do, though, think that the Manchester index generally does a better job of capturing the prevailing public perception of a summer month than the Davis index.  For example, the public perception of July 1998 in central and southern England was negative, because of the frequency of rain rather than the quantity, the shortage of sunshine, the low daytime temperatures and the absence of a spell of dry sunny weather.  This is well picked up by the Manchester index, but by the Davis index the month doesn't come out too badly because rainfall totals were below normal and cool days were partly offset by warm nights.  

 

Using rain days is indeed problematic because of the issue that a day with just half an hour of rain can quality and bring the index down, but the Davis index has a bigger version of that problem.  I recall that one of the stations in Weather Log had 90mm of rain during August 1995 which would heavily bring down the Davis value for that month, but it would hardly reflect the prevailing public perception of the month, as 85mm of the rain fell in one day and an overwhelming majority of the other days were sunny and dry.

 

Another interesting point is that if we feed typical "continental" summer conditions into the two indices, especially if we choose somewhere like Munich (which gets high rainfall totals as a result of short-lived intense downpours) they tend to score better relative to the typical British summer on the Manchester index than on the Davis index.  I get a sense that most pf the general public do prefer continental-style summers to ours, although many businesses might think differently due to the potential for thundery downpours to cause more disruption than light frontal rain.

Edited July 23, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Snowy L]

NW England doing well today. Already 27c at Woodvale on the merseyside coast.

[cheeky_monkey]

And I've somehow got to sleep thru' that this afternoon. Dy'know, I've had 3hrs kip since 0600 Sunday. In that time I've squeezed in two 12hr night shifts - and will be back at it in in less than six hours from now. Those 3hrs kip came yesterday afternoon by kipping in the nippa's bedroom (NW facing,cooler,darker), two electric fans and a whole bunch of drugs. Ah, to be in England in the summertime. No wonder there's so many more murders an' stuff.

 buy an ac unit problem solved..its not rocket science

Edited July 23, 2014 by cheeky_monkey