Summer 2014 thread

[Weather-history]

Forecasts from other decent summer months of the 90s

July 1994

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2apbPRgU_bw6tANgCcPAGwqY

June 1996

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2apCke4qzUIERZIznlNLxStj

July 1999

http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWbt7RniF2ao1-I6iNNnQHL_Pke3HQWJp

[sebastiaan1973]

Warm summer and around normal precipitation

[Cheshire Freeze]

I remember a countryfile forecast from early July 2012 with the presenter saying something along the lines of 'it might not quite be game, set and match for summer just yet but it isn't looking good'. A remarkable summer for its unending unsettled weather.I always seem to find summer soon flies by once we get into July. Nights start lengthening and September seems to come round so quick! Guessing it's the same for summer lovers in Jan!

Edited May 29, 2014 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

Warm summer and around normal precipitation

 

Tell that to the models.

[Tim M]

Tell that to the models.

Exactly ... and to make matters worse it has now been raining non-stop here in Mansfield for 75 hours and still shows no sign of abating. That is not 'around normal', unless of course we get week after week of dry weather, which the models say is not going to happen. 

 

I guess it is not summer yet so there is hope.

[Bobby]

2006: 8/10 - An exceptional July, a decent June but a dull, cool forgettable August. The last summer we had proper thunderstorm too!

2007: 2/10 - Very wet, cool and memorable for missing nearby storm after storm

2008: 1.5/10 - Even wetter than 2007, Autumnal levels of rainfall throughout

2009: 5/10 - A decent June but overall a forgettable summer

2010: 6/10 - Similar to 2009 but with some reasonable warm, sunny spells

2011: 4/10 - Rather forgettable and average

2012: 1.5/10 - About as bad as it gets with the wettest June ever and a wet July and August

2013: 6.5/10 - An exceptional 3 weeks in July, the rest of summer rather forgettable and wetter than average as a whole.

 

Looks 2014 will be off to a bad start.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Bobby

[johnholmes]

this may be of some interest, it is taken from the NOAA June outlook for America but these two paragraphs are of general interest perhaps?

EL NINO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS, WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS CPC/IRI FORECAST PLACING PROBABILITIES OF EL NINO AT OVER 65% FOR JJA. THE CURRENT NORTH PACIFIC SSTS PROJECT QUITE STRONGLY ONTO THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PDO, A RARE FEAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONSIDERING THE PRECEDING ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. THIS WELL-KNOWN HORSESHOE STRUCTURE IN NORTH PACIFIC SST ANOMALIES IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT EXTRATROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC FORCING DURING THE COLD SEASON, NAMELY, A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE WEST PACIFIC/NORTH PACIFIC OSCILLATION. IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY FORCING TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WARM SEASON CONSIDERING THE SEASONAL WEAKENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, THE EMERGING EL NINO, AND THE CONSENSUS OF CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS.  IN THE ATLANTIC, PERSISTENT FORCING FROM THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NAO HAS PRODUCED A COLD TRIPOLE, WITH BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS IN PARTS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS WELL AS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BASIN. IN FACT, PROJECTING THE RECENTLY OBSERVED (FMA) SST ANOMALIES NEAR NORTH AMERICA (160E-360, 10S-70N) ONTO SSTS OVER THE PAST 35 YEARS REVEALS THAT SUCH A STRUCTURE HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONGLY OBSERVED SINCE THE EARLY 1990S. THERE WERE A FEW RECENT DEVELOPING EL NINO YEARS (2002, 2004, 2009) THAT PROJECT WEAKLY ONTO THE CURRENT STATE. 

[Weather-history]

The worst sumner month I can remember was June 1987. It was wet cool and cloudy. It was the pits.

July 1988 and August 2008 weren't that far behind.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The worst sumner month I can remember was June 1987. It was wet cool and cloudy. It was the pits.July 1988 and August 2008 weren't that far behind.

 

What about Jul 07? almost child of nadine like, 20th-21st, Sat 21st was especially wet

[Weather-history]

What about Jul 07? almost child of nadine like, 20th-21st, Sat 21st was especially wet

It was poor but June 1987 was absolutely dire around here. To show how dire it was, it was the wettest month of the 1980s for Manchester and sunshine totals were just over 100hrs! Edited May 30, 2014 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

BBC forecasting south easterly winds for me next week with sunshine and showers would be better than what we had for most of this week when those easterlies brought nothing but slate grey cloud

Edited May 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Thundery wintry showers]

It was poor but June 1987 was absolutely dire around here.To show how dire it was, it was the wettest month of the 1980s for Manchester and sunshine totals were just over 100hrs!

Durham didn't even reach that- only 89.4 hours of sunshine according to the Met Office's stats. and the mean maximum temperature was 2.5 to 3C below average (regardless of which reference period we use):

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/durhamdata.txt

There have been significantly wetter Junes at Durham, but often the frequency of rainfall is a greater issue than the quantity.  By comparison, June 2012 was warmer and wetter, and recorded only 72.1 hours of sunshine but via a Kipp-Zonen rather than Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder, suggesting that June 1987 was probably comparably dull.

Edited May 30, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Jax]

Despite the very poor outlook for the first week of June, decent summers do seem to come in pairs or trios in the UK, and most of them seem to have had a very mediocre June with July and August generally being the good months. Maybe 2013 and 2014 will be another pairing and hopefully not just a one-off.

Hope your right, looking forward to another 2013 summer here.

[Summer Sun]

TBF June 2013 was a mixed month yes it started and ended settled but overall was described as a rather cool month for England and Wales by the met office I'm pretty sure it was slightly below the 81 to 10 average as well

 

But then look what followed in July from the 6th to 24th somewhere in the UK exceeded 28c everyday with 30c hit on a number of days making it the hottest spell of weather since 2006

 

I know things don't look promising as we start summer but we have a long way to go yet

[NeilN]

June 2012, July 2007, July 1993 and August 2008 were the pits re: summer months.

[matty007]

Right! I can't believe that some have tried to write off the whole summer because of how next week looks. It's not even June yet, and we have well into September from a good period of high pressure. Patience people... even though I too lack it.

 

+1

 

Like you and I have said, it's amazing how fast the weather can change. You only need the warm air they have to the east to move slightly to the west and we could be in for some very nice weather indeed. And if you look at the ECM it clearly shows this warm air moving in at the last few frames.

 

I will say though that I'm praying we get some warm, preferably hot, and sunny weather in June however. Really that's when you want the warm and sunny weather the most as the days are at their longest so it allows for some very late evening barbecues etc. This is especially important this year with the World Cup coming up. 

Edited May 30, 2014 by matty007

[Don]

TBF June 2013 was a mixed month yes it started and ended settled but overall was described as a rather cool month for England and Wales by the met office I'm pretty sure it was slightly below the 81 to 10 average as well

 

But then look what followed in July from the 6th to 24th somewhere in the UK exceeded 28c everyday with 30c hit on a number of days making it the hottest spell of weather since 2006

 

I know things don't look promising as we start summer but we have a long way to go yet

 

Indeed, June 2013 had a CET of 13.6C putting it 0.9C below the 81-10 average.  After a long period of mostly below average months, what followed in July certainly took me by surprise!  Yes we were due an above average month, but that was pretty exceptional especially after what we had been used to and marked a big turning point to a long run of mainly above average temperatures.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The main issue during June 2013 was that we often lay on the periphery of the high pressure and had cool breezes with a northerly component.  In the first third of the month the high was mainly to the north-west and frequent low cloud from the North Sea brought cool cloudy weather from east and south Yorkshire southwards as a result, although to the north and west of that, there was plenty of dry sunny weather.  The second anticyclonic spell brought rather more widespread cloud cover, as the high was centred to the south-west and we had chilly northerlies and north-westerlies on its north-eastern flank.  But during the anticyclonic spell in July, the high often covered large areas of the British Isles which resulted in warmer sunnier conditions.  The high was still often centred over the west though, which is why the month was exceptionally warm/hot and sunny in the west and less so in the east.

Edited May 30, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[matty007]

Hopefully we do get a long got heat wave to be honest, I would prefer a heat wave to come in July or August when many people are off. I can't tell you how many times I've been frustrated because June and early July have stole all the glory and left the rest of the summer with westerlies.

 

I'm not sure we'll get a long heatwave this year, the potential is there with the heat to the east but it's dependant on whether the stubborn low's move away. 

 

I get what you mean, it is nice in July and August when people are off. I just love long periods of warmth and sun in June as the day's are the longest and there's nothing better than being in the garden at 10PM, sitting in 23c+ with a cool drink and watching the hazy sunshine set. I just love June. Unfortunately recent June's have been very poor, but last year was actually pretty nice where I live. 

[hillbilly]

It was poor but June 1987 was absolutely dire around here.To show how dire it was, it was the wettest month of the 1980s for Manchester and sunshine totals were just over 100hrs!

We had an average temp of 12.05 deg ,104 mm of rain and just 79 hrs sunshine in june 1987!!

[J10]

The main issue during June 2013 was that we often lay on the periphery of the high pressure and had cool breezes with a northerly component.  In the first third of the month the high was mainly to the north-west and frequent low cloud from the North Sea brought cool cloudy weather from east and south Yorkshire southwards as a result, although to the north and west of that, there was plenty of dry sunny weather.  The second anticyclonic spell brought rather more widespread cloud cover, as the high was centred to the south-west and we had chilly northerlies and north-westerlies on its north-eastern flank.  But during the anticyclonic spell in July, the high often covered large areas of the British Isles which resulted in warmer sunnier conditions.  The high was still often centred over the west though, which is why the month was exceptionally warm/hot and sunny in the west and less so in the east.

 

South Western areas did very well for sunshine in the first 10 days of June with over 100 hrs widely. The remainder of June was far more varied, and as a result overall sunshine levels were above average but not as much as you would have though given the first 10 days.

 

In contrast June 2012 was horrible, there are other appropriate words but this is a family forum.

[SP1986]

Although June 2012 was hideous, it was only 0.3C below average on the mean CET? I would think, that this June, should the pattern we are seeing models lock in, will turn out much colder than June 2012. 

 

My stats in June 2012 saw a mean maximum of 17C, and a mean minimum of 10C (mean 14.1C), which is pretty bang on average. 

 

I have no expectation of seeing anywhere near that this June, I think a mean nearer 12-13C is likely (maybe much lower if the mean maximum turns out to be 12-13C!). This month better warm up after the rubbish gunk that's forecast in the first half of the month. Im just glad im not residing in a flood prone area.

Edited May 30, 2014 by SP1986

[Thundery wintry showers]

South Western areas did very well for sunshine in the first 10 days of June with over 100 hrs widely. The remainder of June was far more varied, and as a result overall sunshine levels were above average but not as much as you would have though given the first 10 days.

 

In contrast June 2012 was horrible, there are other appropriate words but this is a family forum.

My location in North Yorkshire did rather well for sunshine as well during the first ten days- there were several occasions when the North Sea low cloud passed just to the east of my location and I stayed in the clear, and I think there was only one day out of the 10 when it came overhead for long.  But I recall that during the anticyclonic spell in the last week I was too far north/east to see much sun.

 

One unusual aspect of that first spell was that the North Sea low cloud mostly stayed offshore until it got level with North Yorkshire, and consequently the coastline of Northumberland and Tyne & Wear also stayed mainly sunny, albeit much cooler than inland.

Edited May 30, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[cheese]

Although June 2012 was hideous, it was only 0.3C below average on the mean CET? I would think, that this June, should the pattern we are seeing models lock in, will turn out much colder than June 2012. 

 

My stats in June 2012 saw a mean maximum of 17C, and a mean minimum of 10C (mean 14.1C), which is pretty bang on average. 

 

I have no expectation of seeing anywhere near that this June, I think a mean nearer 12-13C is likely (maybe much lower if the mean maximum turns out to be 12-13C!). This month better warm up after the rubbish gunk that's forecast in the first half of the month. Im just glad im not residing in a flood prone area.

The mean max in June 2012 here was 17.5C, which is over a degree below the 81-10 averages. the mean min was 9.6C - bang on average - since it was so cloudy, which kept the minimum temperatures relatively high. Same with August 2008 - exceptionally dull, cool duringt he day (nearly a degree cooler than average), but warmer than average at night.

 

Your posts are too presumptuous - you can say what might happen based on the current outlook, but you cannot say for sure that is what will actually happen.

Edited May 31, 2014 by cheese

[Interitus]

Well I've posted before about the June pressure trends tending towards increasing pressure over Iceland and lower pressure for Shetland, possibly indicative of change in storm tracks towards the UK.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74403-arctic-ice-how-does-it-influence-our-weather/page-10#entry2405127

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76204-are-we-about-to-enter-another-mini-ice-age/page-21#entry2688144

 

Last year bucked the trend somewhat, but the forecast charts this year at the moment suggest that the trend is returning right on cue for the first half of June.