Summer 2014 thread

[Milhouse]

Its only June 1st and already the models are looking very tasty from a heat/thunderstorm point of view!

[Jax]

Indeed (as above) seeing some hints of better things onwards of about a weeks time, all pinch of salt timescales admittedly.

[matty007]

Looking very tasty indeed. 

 

 

Very long way out and GFS. But if that come true, wow. Lot of heat. 

[Summer Sun]

Hello summer

 

 

[matty007]

Hello summer

 

 

 

I'm salivating haha. 

 

Next weekend is looking good on both the CFS and ECM. Hope it doesn't change. 

 

I think we'll certainly get some warm/hot periods this month with the chance of thunderstorms. Love thunder, there's something really nice about it.  Want really loud claps. 

[Mountain Snow]

^ Looks a tad sweaty by next Sat afternoon!

 

First day of summer is turning out very pleasant, clouded over more now but still warm and bright. Hopefully more of these days to come.

[matty007]

^ Looks a tad sweaty by next Sat afternoon!

 

First day of summer is turning out very pleasant, clouded over more now but still warm and bright. Hopefully more of these days to come.

 

There will be. 

 

I think people got a little carried away writing this month off because of the bad end to May and the models. It will be another above average month. 

 

Not saying it'll be 76' territory or anything, but we'll certainly get some warm/hot spells. 

[matty007]

Beginning to regret my cet downward guess for June now as its looking pretty damn hot on occasions now. Also July is looking better on the CFS now with an HP being the main player. August is looking the question mark month at the moment. To be fair I hope Gavin p is correct about this summer as he was spot on about the winter and not bad on the spring really.

 

Yeah I went for 16.1, which might be a little optimistic but is certainly possible when you look at the trend of the last 10-11 months.

 

If we get many days like 7 June is projected to be then 16.1 is very plausible. 

 

Would be nice to get a hot and settled June for a change. Been very poor recently really save a few short spells in 2011 and 2009. 

Edited June 1, 2014 by matty007

[laserguy]

Nice warm, sultry and thundery night on Saturday! Listen to those coldies moan!

 

Warm and sultry maybe, but not thundery - it never is for me. So ye, lots to moan about, akin to doing a week's hard graft only to find you're not gonna get paid 'cos the firm's gone bust.

[Summer of 95]

Will it be a proper Spanish plume (30C over all England and Wales with a thundery breakdown) or a post-2006 one (30C in the SE, cloudy 20C everywhere else, and no thunder?)

They always seem to be a let down unless you're in the southeast nowadays. I dont like the look of that temp chart with Wales and W England outside the heat.

[cheese]

What about June 2011? 30C was recorded as far north as Linton-on-Ouse near York on the 27th. 31C was recorded here.

 

 

 

Same again on 1 August last year..

 

 

 

There was actually thunder too!

Edited June 1, 2014 by cheese

[summer blizzard]

Will it be a proper Spanish plume (30C over all England and Wales with a thundery breakdown) or a post-2006 one (30C in the SE, cloudy 20C everywhere else, and no thunder?)

They always seem to be a let down unless you're in the southeast nowadays. I dont like the look of that temp chart with Wales and W England outside the heat.

 

It's a mid twenties and then thundery rain plume.

 

[Summer of 95]

1st August last year was warm but quite cloudy: the sun didn't come out till mid afternoon preventing a possible 30C (none here since 2006). It was close but not quite. 2011 was a non event, cloudy and 5-7C cooler than further south and east.That one obviously moved far enough north, but only in the east of England : they just dont seem to affect the west like they used to.

[reef]

What about June 2011? 30C was recorded as far north as Linton-on-Ouse near York on the 27th. 31C was recorded here.

 

Same again on 1 August last year..

 

There was actually thunder too!

Re: above, its not just the west. We havent hit 30C here since Summer 2001!

 

It just shows how you cant take 850hPa charts at face value when it comes to surface temperatures.

 

Take that 2nd August 2013 chart for example, there's 18C 850hPa temperatures over this location and what was the maxima? It was 25.7C.

 

June 2011 was a closer call though, with a max of 29.7C with uppers of only 13C.

[cheese]

I think those charts are a day late - the 2nd August chart must be for the 1st in reality.

 

But your position near the coast must inhibit high temperatures generally.

[Weather-history]

It will be very exciting if those models come off for the 13th of June...since its the only day in the whole of meteorological Summer that has never NEVER recorded a maximum temperature of above 30C anywhere in the UK.

Officially.There have been reports above 30C on that date but not under today's standards.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Next week onwards looks quite nice. Temps into the twenties with the chance of some Thunderstorms. What more do you want!!

[matty007]

Saturday isn't looking quite the day we'd expected and hoped for. 21-22c and wet by the looks of it. 

 

Hopefully that will improve as the week progresses. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Certainly looking very positive at the moment, but I think that it's a bit too far out to definately call a high pressure week right now.

Would love a settled June since I'm going to Alton Towers on the 24th with the school. Was dry and warm last year, rain would just spoil it.

[summer blizzard]

Some fantastic heights over Greenland for any time of year being shown..

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Would love a settled June since I'm going to Alton Towers on the 24th with the school. Was dry and warm last year, rain would just spoil it.

 

Settled on 24th June would be good, get the players on court!

[Lauren]

Blimey is it nearly Wimbledon time already? It seems the older I'm getting the years are flying by more quickly.

[damianslaw]

Some fantastic heights over Greenland for any time of year being shown..

 

 

 

Yes notable by there absence so far this year. However, the UK manages somehow to remain on the warm side of the trough thanks to strong heights to the east. The charts have a west based negative NAO look about them - which can mean mild southerly airflow. If this was mid winter though and we had a well established cold pool to the east then a snowfest would be on the cards with trough no doubt disrupting.

[Mark -W-s-M]

Daily express at there finest again http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/480038/Shock-UK-weather-warning-Tornadoes-hail-thunderstorms-and-lightning-to-ravage-Britain

[Knoxgar]

Forecast is pretty good: nights a lil bit chilly but ok, CAPE reaching 3000 on Tuesday...next supercell setup, which is quite nice...so far 21 days with t-storms, 4 supercells and season hasn't even started!

Edited June 4, 2014 by Knoxgar