Convective / Storm Discussion - 1st May 2014 onwards

[johnholmes]

I do recommend the thread with the blog by Jo Farrow, sensible, as one would expect from a Met O trained forecaster, suggested use of Net Wx chart data=upper wind flows and strengths along with watching the radar. So no need for understanding t-phis, skew-t's, lapse rates etc etc, just watch the radar and what the Net Wx 700mb flow is showing. 

[Biggin]

Dull n miserable, still thats enough about the missus Plenty of showers  drifting Se wards also showers being spawned out of nowhere. First heavy rain shower for me today.

[Tom Jarvis]

Looks like the sussex storm shield is working at full power need to somehow kill it lol

[cheese]

   OI JOG ON. Leeds need some storm porn

Sorry Paul, there already has been 'storm porn' in Leeds - just not in Morley.

 

EURO4 model shows some showers breaking out in the afternoon in our part of the world, so keep faith.

[paul m]

Sorry Paul, there already has been 'storm porn' in Leeds - just not in Morley.

 

EURO4 model shows some showers breaking out in the afternoon in our part of the world, so keep faith.

Lol would love a storm like the one that hit Leeds festival last year. 

[BrickFielder]

Over the last few days I have been looking at the overnight soundings and thinking there is a bit of a cap between 700hpa and 500hpa.I have also looked at the NMM detailed Mixed Layer and Surface based Instability charts (Cape) and thought instability is a bit meagre yet one or two mild storms have developed.

So the question is whats going on. Personally I think models tend to struggle in a number of ways with current conditions. The first is that as good as satelite analysis is , it will not pick up the detail that a sounding can and there are no soundings out in the ocean (where tomorrows weather generally comes from). Secondly dewpoints or depth of surface moisture can be slightly over estimated at times. Thirdly under slack conditions daytime heating temperatures can be slightly under estimated.So bearing this in mind we have another day where low level wind convergence can spark off some showers and possibly thunder storms in some areas. As the day goes on the steep level lapse rates will begin to decline from the west. Cloud tops today look a little limited for storms and possibly better the further north you are. As temperatures are not that impressive especially to the far north this must be taken into account as well.In terms of low level convergence we have an area around the pennines which will move eastwards from Mid day onwards. We have some convergence areas in Scotland and perhaps a suggestion of convergence towards south wales and possibly mid ways into the midlands.

Some mid level approaching vorticity from the west and wind divergence could enhance storm formation.

 

There is also a bit of low level jet coming in from the west which could enhance speed sheer in the lowest levels. I dont think updrafts will be strong enough to lift any low level vorticity though.

 

Over all the greatest risk is slow moving or in situ showers giving heavy downpours with a risk of flooding mainly towards the East.Convergence zones give rise to a risk of very weak short lived funnels.Limited cloud tops may prevent severe storm formation.

 

Slight risk of storms in the midlands perhaps towards nottingham, but mid level laspe rates declining from the west as the day goes on.

 

 

Do go and read Jo Farrow's blog and the discussion about nowcasting.Using the radar at this point will be much better than any model anaylsis. See if you can work out where the storm which developed over merseyside is heading. Keep an eye on the showers towards essex.

[Arnie Pie]

Great cloudscapes and deep convection so far...looks good for later

[lassie23]

Showers are now getting going in NW London! Large raindrops!  15.3c! Looks like thunderstorms are due later!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Today has that more classic thundery look to it, more than yesterday! Heavy shower went through a bit ago with huge raindrops!

Barbecue weather then looks to take over for a while from tomorrow, and then things are turning out to be looking very interesting as we head past the weekend. So anyone who hasn't seen lightning or heard thunder yet, do not be disheartened too soon

Happy storm spotting today whoever gets them, I'm sure quite a few will !

Edited May 13, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Convective]

Cell over Cumbria looks nice

 

[lassie23]

Today has that more classic thundery look to it, more than yesterday! Heavy shower went through a bit ago with huge raindrops!Barbecue weather then looks to take over for a while from tomorrow, and then things are turning out to be looking very interesting as we head past the weekend. So anyone who hasn't seen lightning or heard thunder yet, do not be disheartened too soon :)Happy storm spotting today whoever gets them, I'm sure quite a few will !

What's suppose to happen after the settled spell, past the weekend?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

What's suppose to happen after the settled spell, past the weekend?

 

Mega storms...

[lassie23]

Mega storms...

I'll probably end up with drizzle then! Showers easing off for now and the sun is out. The temp has shot up to 18.3c!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

crumbs quite a few serfics being picked up now up and down the country

[Wet'n'Dry]

Certainly picking up

 

http://www.burnhamoncrouchweather.com/wxlight.php

[Stormraider]

The cell that passed through here not so long ago has produced some strikes umpteen miles later. Looks to be about Kidderminster way. Typical!!

Edited May 13, 2014 by Stormraider

[poseidon]

Just had a few rumbles and one cg lightning in Herts, with the cell now passing West - radar shows it intensifying. Very dark overhead with anvils visible thro the cloud gaps. But no sun at present due to amount of cloud that's built up. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Okay Scotland... LOL 

[SnowJoke]

Sky to the North & North West of MK is black, has a greenish hue to it, so I'm expecting hail shortly. Hopefully a few cracks of thunder too, but not heard anything yet. Fingers Crossed 

Edited May 13, 2014 by SnowJoke

[Supacell]

The weekend looks interesting from an early days CAPE point of view but as we know GFS are not overly accurate days out. However, the WRF is also on-board with this. One thing we can't see yet is if any of the other parameters will be in place to change the outlook from the odd pulse storm to something more juicy.

 

As for today, thus far it's a complete no-go here with light rain now parked over Derby and has been for a couple of hours. Looks like I may need to head out if I want to see anything.

[NUT]

Okay Scotland... LOL 

Nothing here though Everything moving south east so probably going to miss out

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Can't believe how quick things pop up.. One minute a tiny little shower looks just like a standard shower then 10 minutes later its producing serfics 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What's suppose to happen after the settled spell, past the weekend?

Basically, we may have some big storms come up from France if we see a cut off low to our southwest

[lorenzo]

Nice Cu action over Fife right now, sferics sparking up too within the last hour.

 

 

[NUT]

A shower's just formed out of nothing here. Still hope of something flashy/bangy