Glastonbury Wed 25 to Sun 29 June 2014

[J10]

Another year passes and another Summer is about to start, and the anticipation of another Glastonbury festival.

 

http://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up-poster/

 

A question, how high is the water table around Glastonbury at the moment given the terrible winter flooding at the Somerset Levels.

 

Saying that, I will try not to do this year is to get too caught up with pre festival rainfall, as last year did show the drying out capability of the site.

 

At this stage, updates will be weekly, and really are a bit of fun, as no real indication can be found until late May / Early June at the earliest. 

 

Early Indications

 

 

 

 

Temps above average, rainfall below average in June, above average in July, Pressure above average in June, around average in July.

 

These indications will change every week this far out, so should be taken with a salt mine worth of salt, and as such are called indications rather than forecasts.

 

 

 

 

[J10]

The First Blog for Glastonbury 2014 has been published here.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4752-glastonbury-festival-2014-forecast-no-1/

 

As promised, a bit more detail on MJO

 

This shows the current MJO Phase endpoint from the models

 

This shows the Trend of the MJO Phases from the models

 

This could become quite useful as we move towards the festival, but are not worthy of full inclusion in the main blog at this time.

[J10]

The second blog for Glastonbury has been published.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4753-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-2-issued-18-may/

[Kid A]

Hey Jackone.

 

Great to have you back for another month of neurotic weather watching in the run-up to Glastonbury. I'm really looking forward to the festival as usual, and the build-up wouldn't be complete for me without your blog.

 

Thanks in adavance for all of your efforts. Bring it on!

[DevonStu]

Yeah nice one, I love following this, all part of it for me. Currently pi55ing down here in Devon but if I remember rightly, a similar situation as last year and look how well that turned out....Fingers crossed!!!!

[bazzaholtom]

Yes same for me

Like is said every year can't really say much more than a few days in advance but just love the roller coaster

Same as last year will do just fine

[duggyfresh]

Thanks for your forecasting again this year Jackone!

 

This is where it starts to get exciting!!!!

[DevonStu]

When can we expect the next update J10???

[J10]

When can we expect the next update J10???

 About now,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4755-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-3-issued-25-may/

 

Until GFS comes into range at T+384, the forecasts will be weekly and published regularly on a Sunday.

 

I have yet to decide on the in-between period.

 

Daily forecasts will probably start around 10 days before the start of the festival, so around the 15th.

 

A bit more info as promised in the Blog entry.

 

Here is the spreadsheet  / PDF of the daily figures so far.

 

Glastonbury 2014 published.pdf Glastonbury 2014 published.xls

[William of Walworth]

Hello again Jackone, thanks for taking this stressful task on again,

 

From some other NW threads, I do believe there's some faint possibilities of possibly summery pattern changes as June progresses, but of course nothing is ever guarenteed. Not ever.

 

Thanks for all the hard work anyway.

[J10]

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4759-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-4-issued-1-june/

 

The latest Glasto Blog is now out and a lot of things to think about.

 

As promised further details on all of the runs will appear shortly.

 

Glastonbury 2014 published 1 June.pdf

 

Glastonbury 2014 published 1 June.xls

[J10]

Latest Thoughts From Net Weather Monthly Forecast for the end of June.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess=

 

Hopefully any mid month settled spell will last through Glastonbury.

[J10]

I am going to start publishing the daily NOAA 850mb forecasts for 6-10 day and 8-14 day for trending purposes.

 

We are currently in an unsettled pattern, with an upper trough to the west of the UK and seemingly moving east to cover the UK this week at least temporarily.

 

However at this stage I am more interested in the potential build-up in high pressure into next week, there are signs of the trough weakening in situ out west, allowing higher pressure to edge in, as ever there are model disagreements. But here are the thoughts of NOAA.

 

Forecast from 1 June

 

Forecast from 2 June

 

These both show a trough out to the west of the UK, with higher pressure over the UK and to the East, will this continue going forward time will tell.

[J10]

Todays Update

 

 

This shows that the trough has made further eastwards progress and covers much of the western part of the UK for days 6-10.

 

The pressure is lower than suggested yesterday, with the trough closer to, but not covering the UK for days 8-14. 

[J10]

Today's update

 

 

The trend of yesterday of the trough making further eastward progress has reversed, although the best of any High Pressure anomaly remains to the east of the UK, this applies for both days 6-10 and 8-14.

[J10]

Latest Update

 

 

Further improvement with the upper trough trough now further away to the west and High Pressure (ridge) over the UK for day 6-10 and no dominant pressure day 8-14, however ridges closer to the UK to both the south and north.

[J10]

Latest Update (Friday Charts)

 

 

An upper ridge is over Southern UK, in the day 6-10 period and also to the north of the UK.

No pressure anomaly for the UK on days 8-14, but upper ridges to both the north and south of the UK.

 

This weekend's update - the above charts will be updated tonight.

 

For the main blog - I will do a summary of these charts for the week, together with the monthly look ahead from CFS.

 

There will also be a look ahead on trends based on GFS long range and the 850Hpa charts above.

[dancing daisy]

Jackone you are a star! I have promised myself not to check in daily, so had a wobble when I saw a 'stranger' was doing our forecasts.

Many thanks and let's hope for a dry one!

[bazzaholtom]

Looking forward to update, I'm gathering this really could go either way at this point.

I know it's not worth worrying about as what ever will be will be but it's so much easier with a bit of sun.

Here's hoping

[J10]

The Glastonbury blog is being prepared but there are some issues re uploading documents, and this is stopping completion.

[J10]

Glastonbury Blog no 5 - now uploaded here - > http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4761-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-5-issued-8-june/

 

More detail as promised on CFS Raw Runs and CFS from Meteociel.

 

latest update from NOAA will appear here when published - approx 10pm tonight.

 

There will also summaries of GFS from tomorrow as we get into T+384 range.

 

Glastonbury 2014 published 8 June.pdf

 

Glastonbury 2014 published 8 June.xls

 

Next Main Blog update Wed 11 June - giving updates on NOAA and GFS.

[DevonStu]

Umbrella's at the ready by the looks of it lol.....

[J10]

NOAA daily update

 

 

 

Both have a ridge to the North and west of the UK, and and upper trough to the east of the UK.

 

A positive development for the first time in a while.

[William of Walworth]

Still room for hope!

[J10]

Today marks a new step for the forecasts, now that GFS comes into range.

 

 

Both runs today show an unsettled and wet start to the festival (at T+384)

 

The ensembles show pressure rising in the next few days and only slowly fading away by Glastonbury

 

 

Could Pressure hold on a few more days, maybe but the current trend is the weather getting worse before the start of Glastonbury.

 

The NOAA update is not yet out.