Convective/Storm Discussion for 06/0614 - 07-06-14

[paul m]

have a look at the lightning detections and distributions Paul and you'll see that nothing has gone a bit pear shaped! 

I have... Not as widespread as people had previously said. That is not a moan btw just my observations on things. I was watching the Dawlish cam at around 3 am and thought that was a good sign of what was to come. Oh well always next time or the time after that

[Thundery wintry showers]

On holiday in Norwich for a few days, had about ten rumbles from a cell that passed over about an hour ago, some impressive cloud formations, but I didn't see any lightning so presumably it was mostly or entirely cloud-to-cloud lightning that produced the thunder.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking good over the wash and that's about it now. Gonna head back down the 47 until more storms hopefully crop up. Was defo worth the chase otherwise I'd have witnessed ditto back in borough. That early morning storm was a little cracker though too, so it's been pretty good for me.

Monday may bring some surprises too yet.

[paul m]

pardon?......I haven't had any storms at all from this event so how on earth can it be IMBYism......sorry Paul, but your post is just plain daft

I was talking about me when I said that. The situation is dynamic. Even the met office could not pinpoint where the storms were going to be

[alibabba]

Thunder and lightening here in skeggy now woop woop lol

[The PIT]

We're running a bit low on activity atm folks!! Could have done with a window of daytime heating it's a shame the cold front couldn't have moved in a bit later letting the warm air become more established. Still, the day is only young... Keep the faith!! 

light1.PNG

A few factors I think were the killers.

 

1) Lower overnight temps. Predicted for here 16C got 11.5C

2) Low humidity. 81% here earlier on for example..

3) Weather front weaker than expected so less forcing..

 

Needed several hours sun and then the front to arrive which may have done the trick.

[A.J]

Correct me if i'm wrong but isn't this rain and crud the CF and thus the air behind it is supposedly more stable and so storms less likely. I am speaking in regards to the East Midlands and Lincolnshire.

No, you're right to a point. the front does seem to be making good progress through the UK, making strong storms seemingly less likely in those regions, but in the clearer air to the south east flank of the CF, there is already several joules of surface based CAPE and dewpoints already in the low 60's as the plume is still influencing this region, so I still think there's potential for lincs/yorks etc as the CF lifts the plume 'remnants' into these areas

[Snowshine]

I don't see further Electrical activity occurring anywhere, with the exception of the South East where CAPE levels are highest. Where there is electrical activity, it wont be particularly impressive. The squall which was producing lightning this morning is no longer electrical. The rainfall covering a large portion of England at the moment is getting lighter. I cannot stay positive because there is little chance of further storms elsewhere this afternoon, perhaps the odd heavy shower; without thunder or hail. There isn't much point keeping up anymore, next time I wont get over hyped until the day before the storm.

Expected CAPE shows CAPE of under 200j/kg and LI of only -1 for most of England, certainly missing an ingredient that ruined the storms today.

[The PIT]

Forgetting today what about tomorrow afternoon?

[Cold Winter]

Well what a boring day so far. Still, plenty of time left for us up north, anything could happen to the rain heading up this way.....

[Chris K]

For some of us lucky gits who already got something in the West, clearance may allow some scattered thundery showers to develop across the SW, Wales, W country and C/S England.

These will likely be few and far between though...so just a case of watching the radars.

[A.J]

I was talking about me when I said that. The situation is dynamic. Even the met office could not pinpoint where the storms were going to be

oh right, gotcha......the joys of misinterpreting the typed word....doh! 

[Greeny]

Correct me if i'm wrong but isn't this rain and crud the CF and thus the air behind it is supposedly more stable and so storms less likely. I am speaking in regards to the East Midlands and Lincolnshire.

 

I know in Norfolk there is still potential until at least 1800 according to skew-T perhaps there will be enough time for things to build before it does become stable. What does the skew-t for that area show?

 

Welcome to Norwich Thundery!

[William Grimsley]

A thundery shower over Cornwall now.

[A.J]

A thundery shower over Cornwall now.

indeed Will, just goes to show that anything is possible.....Also worth noting that a storm has fired over France near Rouen, again in the post frontal airmass

[Generalelectrix]

Morning all.

Back in the office now, took me quite a while to read through all the posts, glad quite a couple in the forum got their fair share of frontal activity and that no major damage seems to have happened.

To those who missed out: its not over yet. Hopefully the clouds will clear quickly behind the cold front, and with cold air aloft combined with diurnal heating should set off scattered and picturesque showers and small thunderstorms basically all over the post frontal areas of the UK. Just give Mr. Sun a short while to sort things, we are close to the 21st, where the sun will be at the highest in the sky at noon.

 

Ralph

 

Edit: Ajpoolshark and Chris K : You beat me to it

Edited June 7, 2014 by Generalelectrix

[William Grimsley]

indeed Will, just goes to show that anything is possible.....Also worth noting that a storm has fired over France near Rouen, again in the post frontal airmass

Yeah extremely muggy out there. Without the wind, I would find being outside quite uncomfortable right now.

[anything-but]

Just been through the Dartford tunnel to Thurrock and the air feel "thick", wouldn't be surprised if things kick off later.

[Supacell]

I am sat near Bingham with the plan to spend the afternoon in Lincolnshire, still raining but skies brightening a little. Still feeling warm and humid even without the sun.

[Sprites]

Had three storms so far today, maybe another storm later in norfolk, as for Monday that is likely to be a hammering for France and the netherlands.

[SnowJoke]

A thundery shower over Cornwall now.

 

Hope yet then of seeing something later on this afternoon. My only hope is the faster clearance of the cold front and rising temperatures in any sunshine can build a higher level of SBCAPE than the models have forecast. I think the lowish levels on the latest GFS output were banking on the CF moving northwards much slower today.As I said earlier, just been heavy rain here, and having popped out round the corner to buy some smokes, the humidity seems to have unleashed a swarm of annoying small biting midgey's. 

 

Edit: the current bun is now popping through the thinning cloud, feels very warm...

Edited June 7, 2014 by SnowJoke

[William Grimsley]

Hope yet then of seeing something later on this afternoon. My only hope is the faster clearance of the cold front and rising temperatures in any sunshine can build a higher level of SBCAPE than the models have forecast. I think the lowish levels on the latest GFS output were banking on the CF moving northwards much slower today.As I said earlier, just been heavy rain here, and having popped out round the corner to buy some smokes, the humidity seems to have unleashed a swarm of annoying small biting midgey's. 

I doubt anything will happen here unless something develops over the sea especially with the onshore wind.

[Robbie Garrett]

Quite a disappointment, had a few storms pass Gatwick/Heathrow way - causing a bit of disruption to some of today's schedules.   I'd say a few isolated storms crossing the country tomorrow, but that's about it.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Had three storms so far today, maybe another storm later in norfolk, as for Monday that is likely to be a hammering for France and the netherlands.

And they totally died when they reached Thetford.....

[Robbie Garrett]

Although saying that, a few of the (White looking) Cumulus clouds are now going very grey, let's see...