Convective/Storm Discussion for 06/0614 - 07-06-14

[The PIT]

It seems that every lightning strike and storm has missed Doncaster... , heard a fair few rumbles, but nothing else.

I'm pretty sure we've sent a few in the last few months. Brewed em up and sent them on the way.

[joggs]

Dissappointing here

oh well,conditions sounding nice after the cold fronts moved through so hope it gets a move on.Wonder if any storms kick off in the north and east tom?

[robt]

I'm pretty sure we've sent a few in the last few months. Brewed em up and sent them on the way.

 

Most of them miss me (to the NE of Doncaster), but theres been a few little ones.

[The PIT]

Can't see anywhere hot on XCweather a few places warm and sunny though. This dull cool stuff is annoying now. Can we have some sun please.

[Summer Sun]

Updated warning from the met office has removed most of the south now where conditions are improving

 

Issued at: 1308 on Sat 7 Jun 2014

Valid from: 1215 on Sat 7 Jun 2014

Valid to: 2100 on Sat 7 Jun 2014

 

Areas of heavy, thundery rain will continue to move northwards across many parts of the UK during Saturday. The public should be aware of the potential for localised flooding due to the intensity of the downpours. This is a further update to the warning to remove more of southern Britain, where conditions continue to improve. This improvement will extend its way northeastwards across central and northern England through the rest of this afternoon and evening, although isolated thundery showers will still affect some areas.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Warm, humid air, originating from France and Spain, is moving northwards across the UK. Within this air mass, heavy, thundery downpours are breaking out as expected. Some places within the broad warning area will miss the worst of the storms, but where they occur they could produce in excess of 20 mm of rain in an hour, with one or two places perhaps seeing more than 40 mm within 2 or 3 hours, with localised flooding a possibility.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1402095600&regionName=uk

[Generalelectrix]

Quick question: which website is updated the quickest in regards to the Herstmonceux soundings? The 12z from today would interest me a great deal.. Thanks

 

Ralph

Edited June 7, 2014 by Generalelectrix

[Dancerwithwings]

Quick question: which website is updated the quickest in regards to the Herstmonceux soundings? The 12z from today would interest me a great deal.. Thanks

 

Ralph

PM...Nick F, Senior forecaster. If he doesn't know well......

[Cloud 10]

Plenty of strikes here this afternoon.

 

[Neilsouth]

What a complete joke that storm forecasting lark was, I give up!

Well done to those that did get storms

[Supacell]

I'm still out here waiting for something to happen but starting to get a little bored. Currently between Grantham and Bourne with sun shining overhead.

[saint]

What a complete joke that storm forecasting lark was, I give up!

Well done to those that did get storms

 

To be fair, Kent was always going to struggle.... Areas further to West were always going to do better.

[Stuart]

Might have better luck on Sunday afternoon here

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I'm still out here waiting for something to happen but starting to get a little bored. Currently between Grantham and Bourne with sun shining overhead.

I was chasing earlier on. I got lucky to intercept the Kings Lynn/Wisbech storm, a few good strikes produced, massive raindrops and decent thunder. Diddly squat since then, it all marched off too quickly

[MartinD]

Left the house at 5:45am with a decent storm approaching Worcester, headed north to get ahead of the storm in the hope to get some video and photos but sadly the storm fizzled out...... 356 miles later im sat in the services on the M42. Saw some beautiful cloud formations while on rout from Manchester to Huddersfield.

Well it's back to Worcester I think now and then Kansas next year for a realisation of a lifetime dream (I hope)

One last note "how many roadworks are there on the motorways...., omg!" :-)

[alibabba]

God it's bloody warm here now in the sun

[ChezWeather]

Hmm do I see possible development around the Welsh border! 

[Hirudine]

Unfortunately I managed to sleep through the small amount of thunder we had this morning. I only know about it as my other half told me when I woke up- usually he's the one who sleeps through storms!

 

Lovely day outside so worth enjoying, and if we're lucky and get something much later, then that'll be the icing on the cake. Enjoy your day, peeps!

[The PIT]

Hmm do I see possible development around the Welsh border! 

Wales and Ireland seem the place to be now.

[Generalelectrix]

Thanks Dancerwithwings, I have now scoured the net for releases sooner than those here  http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/upperair/sound/current/international ,no luck :-(

 

I fear that the state funded Infos are clammed for a certain timespan before being made public free of charge. This gives the mets which have access to paysites a head start on people like us in the forum... nevermind..

 

Ralph

[Cloudwatcher]

Brightened up here (slightly) but overall, it has to be said, an unremittingly dull, horrible day. No sign of skies clearing either. 

[Gael_Force]

Quick question: which website is updated the quickest in regards to the Herstmonceux soundings? The 12z from today would interest me a great deal.. Thanks

 

Ralph

 

Still showing the 00Z one - Nottingham is updated through 12Z

 

[NUT]

Wales and Ireland seem the place to be now.

Ireland looked as if it would have the most energy for storms this afternoon and seems it's actually happening

[Sainsbo]

Apologies if this has already been posted, but this seems like a great guide for people trying to understand Spanish plumes, and this type of set up. It certainly helped me http://rgsweather.com/2014/06/04/reigate-a-beginners-guide-to-the-spanish-plume/

 

Courtesy or Reed Timmer's Facebook page

[NorthYorksWeather]

Still a slim chance of me seeing something surface based this evening however my attention is now firmly on tomorrow, today seemed a bit messy sypnotically wheras tomorrow looks like your more typical sunny morning and showers bubbling up as the day goes on.

MetO precip forecast shows a good rash of heavy showers. More especially to the North where many have missed out on any action today.

 

 

CAPE looks good as we head into the afternoon, especially to the North.

 

One thing I have noticed is that the CAPE across the UK reaches its peak around about dusk tomorrow evening, so showers may stay heavy/thundery into the late evening. This chart below shows many areas still above 1000 j/kg at 10pm.

 

 

So fingers crossed for tomorrow and Monday also looks interesting but not had chance to look into the details yet. Hopefully those who missed out today can catch a storm over the next few days.

 

[Panayiotis]

This is the best that I could take from the storm approaching from the south which arrived at 5:10AM...but its in 15fps instead of 30fps as I forgot to change it to full HD!! :L

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOeaqAimkGk

 

EDIT: And a panoramic photo to show the structure of the storm.

Edited June 7, 2014 by Panayiotis