White Christmas 2014

[Thunder Snow]

Can't wait for santas update today

[Paul]

Santa has been updated

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[V for Very Cold]

grrr - the rollercoaster is on the down ride - 35% - lets see what next weekend brings

[Turnedoutniceagain]

TBH, I'd settle for a ground frost at the moment

[Stuart]

TheWeatherOutlook says

The twelfth updates slightly increases the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the south and the north of the UK. As we head into December the signs are an unsettled pattern will persist. Through the second half of the month high pressure may build further north for a time allowing a colder spell of weather to affect the UK. This could bring the chance of snow to some of the country in the run up to Christmas.

Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Remember that forecasting specific days at longer ranges accurately is considered next to impossible in the UK with current technology so the Xmas outlook should be viewed as fun until December. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 23%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

Forecast issued

Update 12, 22/11/2014

The computer says [issued 23/11/2014 11:00:15]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Weather-history]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11253760/White-Christmas-unlikely-as-Met-Office-predicts-milder-than-average-winter.html

Not sure why that article is referring to Christmas. You can get a white Christmas even in a mild winter, it only takes one cold spell to coincide with Christmas.

Who remembers the Isobel Lang Countryfile prediction that Christmas 2004 was likely going to be mild? That prediction was made just under two weeks from Christmas. I remember comments being made at the time "has she not looked at the GFS?" Those GFS runs have gone down in model folklore because if I recall nearly every run from when Christmas got onto the far edge of GFS at 384hrs to the day itself showed an Arctic NWly.

[AderynCoch]

She was also wrong about the White Christmases. Only 1938 and 1981 in the last century? Off the top of my head there was a widespread White Christmas in 1906, 1927 and 1970.

 

In fact I'm not sure 1981 technically counts given most places didn't see any actual snowfall on the day itself.

[Stuart]

TheWeatherOutlook says

The thirteenth update makes no change to the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the south and the north of the UK. The next week or two is expected to bring a lot of settled weather with a risk of frost. In the run up to Christmas colder air could push down from the north at times. This would make snow more likely in northern regions and possibly over higher ground further south.

Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Remember that forecasting specific days at longer ranges accurately is considered next to impossible in the UK with current technology so the Xmas outlook should be viewed as fun until December. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 23%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

Forecast issued

Update 13, 29/11/2014

The computer says [issued 30/11/2014 11:01:03]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the north
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
• Snow is expected in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Paul]

Santa has been updated!

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

 

Also, big question of the day - picture or chocolate advent calendars, which are best?

[Lauren]

I have never had a chocolate one. Mum always got me a picture one and then I moved out and never bothered.

[Paul]

Santa has been updated, and we've put the Xmas decorations up on the page

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[Staffordshire]

Nice updates Paul, will be using that link a lot in the lead up to Christmas!

[Summer Sun]

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas just like the one's I used to know.......

 

 

[Paul]

Santa has been updated - he's still dreaming of a white xmas!

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[Essex winter]

Hi guy's.I generally have a small wager on a white xmas for my area.Is there any possible chance of it happening this year or should I save my money? EW

[lassie23]

Hi guy's.I generally have a small wager on a white xmas for my area.Is there any possible chance of it happening this year or should I save my money? EW

Looks like a green Christmas down south, with an increased chance of a white New Year instead! What are the odds on a white Christmas Essex Winter?

Edited December 11, 2014 by lassie23

[Essex winter]

Thanks lassie.wonder whether I can get a tenner on a white new year?!!!!!!!

[mountain shadow]

Save your money Essex Winter, very remote chance of snow in the South. Better chance in the North and West. I think even New Year might be pushing it as well for low level snow in the South.

 

Maybe into week 2 of January before any possible colder snowy weather is in place,

[Essex winter]

Ok.thanks MS.i heed your advice.maybe a couple of festive pints down the local instead.:-) EW

[summer blizzard]

Good chance of a frosty christmas from the 6z..

 

[Dorsetbred]

Still think green is the colour, with minimal white around, certainly for south way too warm for anything white, apart from dandruff or snuff!

[Stuart]

TheWeatherOutlook says

December 25th is now within the range of the GFS/GEFS medium range forecasting model. Despite this it is too early to be entirely confident about the prospects.

The current update increases the chances of snow falling on Christmas day in the north and makes no change for the south. A continuation of the current fairly mobile pattern is forecast during the run up the big day. Colder incursions remain more likely in northern regions with milder air more frequently pushing into the south.

Given the general outlook the best chance of seeing snow falling on the big day remains over higher ground in northern parts of the UK. Because of the mobile and changeable outlook a call on the Christmas day weather may not be made until December 22nd this year.

Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Remember that forecasting specific days at longer ranges accurately is considered next to impossible in the UK with current technology so the Xmas outlook should be viewed as fun until December. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 24%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

Forecast issued

Update 15, 13/12/2014

The computer says [issued 13/12/2014 19:07:51]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Summer Sun]

Quick peek at Christmas week from the beeb

 

Scenario 1 has the greatest chance of seeing some snow for northern and western areas

 

 

Scenario 2 is slightly more likely at this stage with average or slightly below average temperatures on westerly winds

 

 

Still a long way of yet in weather terms so anything could happen, GFS P is similar to scenario 1 on its 06z update

[Dorsetbred]

My money sits firmly on scenario 2. The green scene shall be seen....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Quick peek at Christmas week from the beeb

 

Scenario 1 has the greatest chance of seeing some snow for northern and western areas

 

 

Scenario 2 is slightly more likely at this stage with average or slightly below average temperatures on westerly winds

 

 

Still a long way of yet in weather terms so anything could happen, GFS P is similar to scenario 1 on its 06z update

 

1 is more likely, white Xmas for Scotland, nothing for the south, GFS 12Z also showing similar