The Alps Snow Thread - Season 2014/2015

[carinthian]

Very well presented report Julian, you must spend a fair bit of time in your research. Best ski reports on the net anywhere. Austria has good snow cover and more over the coming days, then the middle of next week as you say is going to be settled with I think lots of sunshine above the inversion and dare I say excellent ski-ing conditions. Great for those going out this weekend to the Alps. Bit cold and cloudy today after 12 hour snowfall, time to catch up on all the football and drink Yorkshire tea to keep warm.

C

[Blessed Weather]

Very well presented report Julian, you must spend a fair bit of time in your research. Best ski reports on the net anywhere. Austria has good snow cover and more over the coming days, then the middle of next week as you say is going to be settled with I think lots of sunshine above the inversion and dare I say excellent ski-ing conditions. Great for those going out this weekend to the Alps. Bit cold and cloudy today after 12 hour snowfall, time to catch up on all the football and drink Yorkshire tea to keep warm.

C

 

Carinthian, I have to let you know that the jealousy levels are building with each of your posts! If only I could persuade the present Mrs Blessed to move to the Alps. Regretfully there's more chance of seeing an avalanche in Suffolk!

 

The ski tour you mention above sounds like good fun but I have to agree with John that being pulled back by a horse sounds iffy!

 

Looks like it's Austria's turn for the heavy snow in a couple of days time. Starts mainly light on Sunday but turns heavy for Monday if tonight's GFS charts are right (and IMO GFS has been pretty accurate with it's Alps forecasts in the 3 - 5 day range over this last month). And with a limpet high pressure stuck somewhere near the UK for the foreseeable, it's starting to look good for the remainder of the season in Katschberg. Enjoy!

 

Mon 9th - nice kink in the isobars as NW flow hits the Alps   

Giving heavy snow over Austria  

Edited February 6, 2015 by Blessed Weather

[J10]

Very well presented report Julian, you must spend a fair bit of time in your research. Best ski reports on the net anywhere. Austria has good snow cover and more over the coming days, then the middle of next week as you say is going to be settled with I think lots of sunshine above the inversion and dare I say excellent ski-ing conditions. Great for those going out this weekend to the Alps. Bit cold and cloudy today after 12 hour snowfall, time to catch up on all the football and drink Yorkshire tea to keep warm.

C

 

It is not my work.

 

http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full

 

It is directly from the link above,

Edited February 6, 2015 by J10

[J10]

No forecast from me today, however a brief update ahead of the blog forecast around noon -pm Sunday.

 

The following shows the amount of snow that has fallen over the Alps in recent days.

 

 

However looking very cold over the Alps this weekend.

 

 

Dry for the most part to start the weekend. However it is looking that some heavy snowfall are likely for parts of SE Germany and Austria late Sunday.

 

At the peak of the snowfall over the next 3 days is SE Germany with the following resort set to get a lot of snow.

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2015 by J10

[carinthian]

Carinthian, I have to let you know that the jealousy levels are building with each of your posts! If only I could persuade the present Mrs Blessed to move to the Alps. Regretfully there's more chance of seeing an avalanche in Suffolk!

 

The ski tour you mention above sounds like good fun but I have to agree with John that being pulled back by a horse sounds iffy!

 

Looks like it's Austria's turn for the heavy snow in a couple of days time. Starts mainly light on Sunday but turns heavy for Monday if tonight's GFS charts are right (and IMO GFS has been pretty accurate with it's Alps forecasts in the 3 - 5 day range over this last month). And with a limpet high pressure stuck somewhere near the UK for the foreseeable, it's starting to look good for the remainder of the season in Katschberg. Enjoy!

 

Mon 9th - nice kink in the isobars as NW flow hits the Alps  GFS 850 09Feb15.jpg

Giving heavy snow over Austria  GFS 6hrprecip 09Feb15.jpg

Well there is Andy on the horse, he runs the stables in the Gontal Valley taking some of ski touring party back to Katschberg. Cold today with mist and snow. Quite a dumping of snow expected later this weekend before clearing to sunshine by mid week with hopefully slightly warmer conditions in the mountains. Quite a few visitors from the UK coming out tomorrow.

[Blessed Weather]

^ C - I love the photo of 'Andy on the horse'! Maybe me and John could cope with that after all!

 

Back to snow reports!  Meteo France have posted this today, which suggests that the heavy snowfall of late has basically only put the French Alps at the snow depths they should be at this stage of the season! Google translation with my improvements:

 

Very heavy snowfall that hit all the French mountains late January / early February have allowed snow to become consistent throughout, even locally higher, than normal at this stage of the season. Thus, a significant thickness of recent snow (except in windy areas) is present at all altitudes in all ranges.
It is in the Pyrenees that snow is the most abundant, ranging well above normal, except for the far east of the chain.
In the Alps, snow is usually just close normal, sometimes a little higher in certain ranges. Heavy snowfall has in fact has just filled a gap that was until then severe.

 

Full report in French: http://www.meteofrance.fr/climat-passe-et-futur/bilans-climatiques/bilan-2015/point-sur-l-enneigement

[johnholmes]

^ C - I love the photo of 'Andy on the horse'! Maybe me and John could cope with that after all!

 

put a sleigh behind it and I might try it!

Anyway being close up to a horse 's rear end no matter how good a skier you are is a bit fraught from nature I would have thought?

 

[Blessed Weather]

^  John - I’ve shown your post to Mrs Blessed and she nearly fell off her seat laughing! She's just reminded me of the horse drawn sleigh ride we had in Westendorf in 1988. As we romantically made our way through the forest towards a cosy stubl the wind got up. And the weather turned quite breezy too! We had tears rolling down our faces as we sheltered behind our face masks!  

[Blessed Weather]

The forecast snowfall for Austria and southern Germany (and to a lesser extent eastern Switzerland) this Sun/Mon is now within range of the Euro4 model and we can see it starts snowing early Sunday morning and gradually gets heavier into Monday. Looks like at least 36 hours of snow coming up.

 

6 a.m. Sunday 8th Feb    12 noon Monday 9th Feb 

[carinthian]

The forecast snowfall for Austria and southern Germany (and to a lesser extent eastern Switzerland) this Sun/Mon is now within range of the Euro4 model and we can see it starts snowing early Sunday morning and gradually gets heavier into Monday. Looks like at least 36 hours of snow coming up.

 

6 a.m. Sunday 8th Feb  Euro4 00.60 Sun 08Feb15.gif  12 noon Monday 9th Feb  Euro4 12.00 Mon 09Feb15.gif

Morning Malcolm,

Yes, right on the spot, snowfall moved in from the north at 10am local. Could be a prolonged event this one with lots of moisture feeding into the Northern Alps. Already reports of heavy snowfall in Southern Germany and into the tirol.Snow ploughs at the ready. A good day to catch up on the rugby and soccer from blighty and Man United/ West Ham game on live here.

C

Edited February 8, 2015 by carinthian

[J10]

This weeks blog has now been published.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4873-alps-weather-forecast-8-february-2015/

 

Really a story of 2 halves firstly the snowfall for SE German and parts of Austria mentioned above.

 

Then drier and a far bit milder than recently. A good week to be on the slopes.

[Blessed Weather]

Well the snowfall that hit Austria yesterday and throughout today has made quite an impact right across the country. The Osterreich.wetter website is reporting up to 40 inches of snow in places with many travel problems across the rail, road and air network; in particular rail passengers beings asked to defer non-essential journeys. 

 

Further info in Austrian: http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Schnee-Chaos-Zugausfaelle-bei-den-OeBB/176143067 and here http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Jetzt-kommt-noch-mehr-Schnee/175953164

 

This evenings Euro4 chart shows it still snowing in eastern Austria although easing off in the Tyrol:

 

The buckling of the isobars as the moist NW airflow hits the Alps is very noticeable and it's interesting how Osterreich.wetter describe this:

 

"Monday morning we start off with the white splendor. During the day the snow brush beats then with full force. A fault zone stops on the north side of the Alps Tyrol lowlands to the Burgenland and generally in the East strong snowfall, especially in the afternoon."

 

The heavy snowfall has made off-piste conditions in the mountains very dangerous and Osterreich.wetter have issued the following report: 

 

Snow and gale-force winds makes the situation extremely dangerous.

 

Fresh snow and hurricane-like storm have meant that on Monday in Lower Austria in the Ybbstaler Alps and in the Rax and Schneeberg area large avalanche danger (Level 4) ruled. In the Alps Türnitzer significant (level 3) was in the Gutensteiner Alps and the change area moderate risk (Level 2).

 

The onset of snow slabs is "on many steep slopes even at low additional loads likely", said the Lawinenwarndienst northeast. The danger zones may extend into deeper forest zones. The Alerter service referred mainly to the snowdrift problems that remain will also receive on Tuesday. With the predicted warming (in temps after the snow event) triggers spontaneous medium, sometimes even larger avalanches were expected.

 

Tyrol

The avalanche danger has intensified in Tirol again, ruled on Monday to be level "4" of the five-part risk scale. For this is the combination of "arctic low temperatures, loose snow and strong winds" responsible.

 

The main risk going out of fresh snow drift or in part by older snowdrift accumulations. This could at any time be triggered as avalanches even at low additional loads, i.e. by just a single winter sports (person), it said.

 

Danger points were located according to experts in steep slopes all directions. This refers to suspension from 30 degrees. Ski touring and off-piste skiing required a lot of experience and restraint, the possibilities are very limited, warned the experts. Inexperienced skiers should not leave the piste.

 

On Sunday dominated the stormy gale-force to north wind. As a result, extensive snow was transported above the treeline. Because of the low temperatures this snowdrift was cold and brittle so, experts say. In addition, he is very susceptible to interference because it often on shady superimposed on a loose old snow on surface hoar.

 

KÄRNTEN

The avalanche danger is increased in Carinthia at the weekend by the stormy wind again. According Lawinenwarndienst the risk is spread classified as "major" prevails at altitudes of 2,200 meters in some cases even warning level. 4

 

The sometimes very powerful snowdrift deposits were very easy to be triggered by the experts. The stormy north wind has led to a strongly shaped by wind snow. The cold made the deposits very brittle, with a very weak binding to the snowpack.

 

Full report in Austrian: http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Lawinen-Alarm-in-Oesterreich-extrem-hoch/176089612

 

Edit: Tues 10th Feb - An update to my post above. Sadly a young Austrian snow-boarder was swept to his death this morning in the Rax group of mountains (picked out above as a risk area). It occurred at only 1,200m height when a slab measuring up to one metre in thickness and stretching for 500 metres up the slope swept down the mountain. The mountain rescue service believe the boarder triggered the avalanche. With temperatures rising and the sun coming out, the rescue service said the risk will remain high for several more days yet.

Edited February 10, 2015 by Blessed Weather

[carinthian]

Here is a picture of snow hiking in the East Tirol, south of Leinz. A very beautiful part of the world. Not easily accessible hence very few visitors to the region. I think when some people visit this area they are blown away. Maybe one day a descent tour operator may see the potential.

 C

[carinthian]

Good day to all. Blazing sunshine today and feels hot as well. Temperature in village currently 7c ( mid-day ) Freezing level up above 2500m making snow unstable at higher altitudes. Just added a picture for all you snow starved Islanders of a snow covered Hut to get your fix.

 Enjoy.

 C

[chrisbooth0070]

Heading out to Mayrhofen on 21st - Hope this high pressure doesn't last forever - need my powder fix

[Reefseeker]

Here is a picture of snow hiking in the East Tirol, south of Leinz. A very beautiful part of the world. Not easily accessible hence very few visitors to the region. I think when some people visit this area they are blown away. Maybe one day a descent tour operator may see the potential.

 CSnow-Hiking-South-of-Lienz-East-Tyrol-p21935.jpg

 

Just had to say thank you for that beautiful image that has set me dreaming of the day I can take husband and son there (kicking and screaming no doubt), it looks lovely:)

[Blessed Weather]

Here comes the next fall of snow for the Alps. This time it's the French, southern Swiss and Italian Alps that will benefit the most. Low pressure moving into Europe for the weekend throws up bands of precipitation on a S/SW wind. This starts on Friday evening for the French Alps and moves east to impact the Swiss and Italian Alps by Saturday 14th Feb and by Monday 16th also moves into the Tyrol, Austria.

 

GFS 850 Sat 14th 15.00 (low moving into N France) Precipitation at 15.00

 

Precipitation keeps falling....      Sunday 15th 15.00   Monday 16th 09.00  

 

The low pressure sticks around for several days, sinking slowly to be centred over northern Italy by Monday, so precipitation keeps falling on and off into Tuesday 17th Feb before fizzling out. Looking at a range of resorts on snowforecast.com it seems that typically around 25 - 30cm of snow will fall over the 3 days in favoured resorts.

 

The issue will be the freezing level. The GFS 850 hPa charts show the 0C isotherm over the Alps for most of this period, so typically freezing level will be around 1,400m. Therefore lower resorts may find precipitation falls as rain/sleet on the lowest slopes, maybe turning to snow overnight as temps fall, before turning back to rain/sleet as temps rise again the following day. The freezing levels charts from the Netweather Alps output for Saturday afternoon versus overnight into Sunday illustrates this (and the pattern repeats itself throughout the 3 days).

 

Saturday 15.00   Sunday 03.00   Sunday 15.00

 

BFTP - a useful top-up for the Sauze d'Oulx pistes!

[Blessed Weather]

Heading out to Mayrhofen on 21st - Hope this high pressure doesn't last forever - need my powder fix

 

Keep your pecker up Chris! A long way to go and no real agreement from the models for your week, but todays output shows a couple of possible snowfall opportunities for the Austrian Alps for you. Be interesting to see if either or neither materialise! (And at least there's plenty of snow over there at the moment for you to enjoy. I still shudder at the thought of all those poor skiers/boarders who had a week of green slopes at Christmas).

 

ECM for Sat 21st    GFS for Wed 25th 

[carled]

 

BFTP - a useful top-up for the Sauze d'Oulx pistes!

 

I'm pleased about this as I'm off out there too. 22nd Feb - 1st March. Last week the forecast seemed to predict about 20-30cm for the area (I have a friend living out there) and about 3-4 times that amount fell. Here's hoping the same thing happens again and then the temperatures drop a bit to keep it all in good shape :-)

[chrisbooth0070]

Keep your pecker up Chris! A long way to go and no real agreement from the models for your week, but todays output shows a couple of possible snowfall opportunities for the Austrian Alps for you. Be interesting to see if either or neither materialise! (And at least there's plenty of snow over there at the moment for you to enjoy. I still shudder at the thought of all those poor skiers/boarders who had a week of green slopes at Christmas).

 

ECM for Sat 21st  ECM 850 Sat21Feb15 12z.png  GFS for Wed 25th  GFS 850 Wed25Feb15.png

 

Wish I was there for the last few days - looked perfect off-piste, albeit with a higher than favourable risk of avalanche.

 

I was in fact there for Christmas - had about 80% of pistes open and good conditions considering

[J10]

The latest Ski blog now up

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4874-alps-weather-forecast-13-february-2015/

 

Please give it a read, as viewers numbers have been dropping.

 

Very much a split this week

 

Mild, dry and sunny for the North East with perhaps the chance of a foehn wind at times. No bad skiing conditions, especially for the morning.

 

More unsettled to the South and West, with the risk of heavy precipitation for NW Italy Sunday into Monday, temps are no perfect, so by no means an entirely snow event, but on higher slopes, quite a lot of snow is possible, with perhaps over a 1m in places.

 

From midweek onwards looking dry everywhere for the Alps.

[Blessed Weather]

The latest Ski blog now up

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4874-alps-weather-forecast-13-february-2015/

 

Please give it a read, as viewers numbers have been dropping.

 

Very much a split this week

 

Mild, dry and sunny for the North East with perhaps the chance of a foehn wind at times. No bad skiing conditions, especially for the morning.

 

More unsettled to the South and West, with the risk of heavy precipitation for NW Italy Sunday into Monday, temps are no perfect, so by no means an entirely snow event, but on higher slopes, quite a lot of snow is possible, with perhaps over a 1m in places.

 

From midweek onwards looking dry everywhere for the Alps.

 

Julian. A big 'thank you' from me for your latest weather blog for the Alps and the time you take to compile it. I admit I'm a mountains and snow freak but it's a 'must read' for me. One of the things I love about the Alps Snow Thread is that you can look at your weekly weather blogs, the model output & various other forecasts for chosen locations and then watch in 'real time' as the webcams show conditions developing, with the always much welcomed posts from people 'on the ground' at the time.

 

And I've been meaning to say that I really like your new presentation of putting the 850 hPa charts next to the 500 Hgt charts. Really fascinating to see the difference in visual impact. Take Wednesday 18th Feb in your blog; from the 500 Hgt chart a quick glance and you'd think (from the orange colours) the Alps were under the hair dryer. But in comparison the 850 hPa charts show a more 'visually realistic' (?) picture with the 0c isotherm over the Alps, so freezing level at around 1,400m; so not too bad. And I would suggest as we move into 'spring skiing' conditions this effect might get more pronounced, with upper air temps (and even 850 hPa temps) not representing surface conditions particularly under clear skies? (Anybody else have views on this?).

[johnholmes]

Julian. A big 'thank you' from me for your latest weather blog for the Alps and the time you take to compile it. I admit I'm a mountains and snow freak but it's a 'must read' for me. One of the things I love about the Alps Snow Thread is that you can look at your weekly weather blogs, the model output & various other forecasts for chosen locations and then watch in 'real time' as the webcams show conditions developing, with the always much welcomed posts from people 'on the ground' at the time.

 

And I've been meaning to say that I really like your new presentation of putting the 850 hPa charts next to the 500 Hgt charts. Really fascinating to see the difference in visual impact. Take Wednesday 18th Feb in your blog; from the 500 Hgt chart a quick glance and you'd think (from the orange colours) the Alps were under the hair dryer. But in comparison the 850 hPa charts show a more 'visually realistic' (?) picture with the 0c isotherm over the Alps, so freezing level at around 1,400m; so not too bad. And I would suggest as we move into 'spring skiing' conditions this effect might get more pronounced, with upper air temps (and even 850 hPa temps) not representing surface conditions particularly under clear skies? (Anybody else have views on this?).

 

The last para is very relevant. As with model watching it is always a case of reading the data available and assessing which part is most relevant to the forecast you are issuing. I fairly slack conditions at 850 and 500mb then the 850 temperatures will often be a better guide to what is occurring on 90% of the Alps ski slopes. Use the 500mb for an indication of where the air is being sourced from and the 850's for a realistic idea of what the temperatures in FREE air at 5,000ft will be. I put capitals because there is a difference between that and on the surface, even at about the same height, again IF the flow is slack.

Yes Julian thank you again for your weekly digest of the Alps weather, I am sure many who read this thread are grateful for the large amount of work you put into it.

[J10]

Julian. A big 'thank you' from me for your latest weather blog for the Alps and the time you take to compile it. I admit I'm a mountains and snow freak but it's a 'must read' for me. One of the things I love about the Alps Snow Thread is that you can look at your weekly weather blogs, the model output & various other forecasts for chosen locations and then watch in 'real time' as the webcams show conditions developing, with the always much welcomed posts from people 'on the ground' at the time.

 

And I've been meaning to say that I really like your new presentation of putting the 850 hPa charts next to the 500 Hgt charts. Really fascinating to see the difference in visual impact. Take Wednesday 18th Feb in your blog; from the 500 Hgt chart a quick glance and you'd think (from the orange colours) the Alps were under the hair dryer. But in comparison the 850 hPa charts show a more 'visually realistic' (?) picture with the 0c isotherm over the Alps, so freezing level at around 1,400m; so not too bad. And I would suggest as we move into 'spring skiing' conditions this effect might get more pronounced, with upper air temps (and even 850 hPa temps) not representing surface conditions particularly under clear skies? (Anybody else have views on this?).

The last para is very relevant. As with model watching it is always a case of reading the data available and assessing which part is most relevant to the forecast you are issuing. I fairly slack conditions at 850 and 500mb then the 850 temperatures will often be a better guide to what is occurring on 90% of the Alps ski slopes. Use the 500mb for an indication of where the air is being sourced from and the 850's for a realistic idea of what the temperatures in FREE air at 5,000ft will be. I put capitals because there is a difference between that and on the surface, even at about the same height, again IF the flow is slack.

Yes Julian thank you again for your weekly digest of the Alps weather, I am sure many who read this thread are grateful for the large amount of work you put into it.

 

 

Thanks for the comments, it genuinely is pleasing.

 

One thing I find is noticeable for the first time this week. is that the rising freezing levels with 850HPa temps not being that high, a sign of winter moving into spring.

Edited February 13, 2015 by J10

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Sunday 03.00 Netweather 0C isotherm Sun15Feb15 03.00.png  Sunday 15.00 Netweather 0C isotherm Sun15Feb15 15.00.png

 

BFTP - a useful top-up for the Sauze d'Oulx pistes!

Malcolm

Indeed its getting incredible, 160 upper and 120 lower...with 50cm possible next 4 days!!!

 

 

Carled

I land as you leave.....send some reports when out there?

 

Julian

Much appreciated the updates and helpful

 

 

cheers guys

 

Fred

Edited February 13, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST