Wales - Weather Chat

[J10]

Looking at the Euro4 18z, 0z & 06z the track has been pretty consistent giving snow to East and North Wales. In the past we have seen these type of features get pushed further south as we get closer to the event but that's not to say it will this time. Looking at the broad scale MetO warnings it appears to take into consideration both northern and southern tracks. Makes interesting model watching indeed.

 

The main pink areas has been for the Northern Valleys / Mid Wales. According to EURO4

 

In order from last night 18Hz to 06Hz today.

 

 

You are right that it may be further south, in which the northern edge may get some snow wherever that may be.

 

My favoured spots are Northern Valleys/ Mid Wales, further north may miss out on precipitation, further south too mild. But that's only based on current models.

 

late edit BBC has precipitation further north across Wales. mostly as snow

Edited December 25, 2014 by J10

[Jayfromcardiff]

1pm BBC forecast on the news channel, I went off their weather map mind. I may be wrong but it showed a rain to snow and back to rain for south wales. East Anglia looked interesting for a good few hours of snow IMO.

[J10]

Not sure if anyone just saw the BBC forecast but they had snow even on the south coast of Wales for around 4 hours at least tomorrow.

 

You were right it show some snow for a time even for Southern Coastal areas. [2pm forecast BBC1] before it reverts back to rain.

Edited December 25, 2014 by J10

[Jayfromcardiff]

You were right it show some snow for a time even for Southern Coastal areas. [2pm forecast BBC1] before it reverts back to rain.

Someone asked Derek brockway on twitter regarding snow for Cardiff and he said no just rain. I find it weird how the graphics clearly show hours of snow though!

[Jackfrost]

Derek seems to have turned into a bit of a mild loving party pooper in recent years!

 

He tends to downplay snow potential.

[Panayiotis]

Snow chances looking good for tomorrow across Wales, hopefully the low drops further south so I get to see some snow anyway Sunday could prove to be another interesting time as there is an occluded front embedded in cold air (528dam) which moves down the country

And here is the map for the south of Wales:

 

Edited December 25, 2014 by Panayiotis

[whiskers]

Yay! Fingers crossed,this is what we've been waiting for! It seems forever since we've had s now,I'm ready though,bring it on!!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Snow chances looking good for tomorrow across Wales, hopefully the low drops further south so I get to see some snow anyway Sunday could prove to be another interesting time as there is an occluded front embedded in cold air (528dam) which moves down the country

And here is the map for the south of Wales:

Surely 5 degrees is too high for snow lol, anyway bugger it - Apparently latest models have brought the low 50 miles further South! surely this increases our chances!

[keithlucky]

Snow chances looking good for tomorrow across Wales, hopefully the low drops further south so I get to see some snow anyway Sunday could prove to be another interesting time as there is an occluded front embedded in cold air (528dam) which moves down the country

And here is the map for the south of Wales:

Nice if it happens ,first time for a long time ,the charts got it correct 3 days ago!HOOOOOORAH

[J10]

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Potential for some snow (likely small amounts, to 2cm) has been extended S for tomorrow to lie essentially #Bristol-M4 northwards

 

I am not sure if this includes latest model.

 

This comes down to nowcasting, quite often the models get the track wrong by say 50 miles even 6 hours out and 50 miles in this set up makes all the difference. 

 

We await the 12Hz EURO4 with interest.

 

My gut feel is still top of Valleys as probably southern extent, but happy to proven wrong!!!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

GFS goes for the more northerly track, allowing the frontal system to effect NW England and N Ireland, where as the EURO4 06z has the focus of precipitation over Wales, Midlands moving east. So awaiting 12z data from EURO4. 

[keithlucky]

GFS goes for the more northerly track, allowing the frontal system to effect NW England and N Ireland, where as the EURO4 06z has the focus of precipitation over Wales, Midlands moving east. So awaiting 12z data from EURO4. 

The met has agreed with Euro4 2to 4cms across higher ground of Wales 4to 6cms across midlands and NE England as front slows.

[Blackjack]

Derek seems to have turned into a bit of a mild loving party pooper in recent years!

 

He tends to downplay snow potential.

I know for a fact that Derek loves mild and heat. Although that doesn't mean he'd bias his forecast.

Bit of a bonus for tomorrow. Wonder if I'd be in the sweet spot in AberG

[Snowmadsam]

Very much still to play for, a live event no doubt, all depending on the position of the low.....

 

Lots to watch folks  

[Panayiotis]

EURO 12z has moved the low north of its previous track, so most of south/mid Wales missing out... definitely going to be a nowcasting situation!

[DeepSnow]

Will be interesting to see who of us (hopefully more of us than not) will get snow over the next day or 2! I remain hopeful but expect little if anything for now, as to not be disappointed if it is just rain!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

General track of the low on EURO4 12z remains similar to previous runs but a slight shift northwards Id say. ECM snowfall distribution chart screenshot was posted in the model thread which agreed with the idea of snow mostly to North Wales and Midlands. Rain mostly for low ground in South Wales, possibility of it turning to sleet/snow for inland areas as the low heads south east before precipitation clears away.

[CRACKPOT]

Hi Guys,

 

It's probably going to be one of those disappointing events with wet snow to start with then just copious amounts of rain. It seems traditional in these events recently we only get the rain in South Wales - and it's always Mid Wales northwards that get snow.

 

There always seems to warmer air mixing in until it has gone further north. We need it to start stalling which is when we know the cold air is having the better of any battles.

 

So many variables need to be in place to get some white stuff and they do not quite seem to be all there at the moment. Think this winter is slowly becoming a disappointment with a whole month (1/3rd) already gone!

 

Lets hope the cold air sees this through.

 

JK

[J10]

General track of the low on EURO4 12z remains similar to previous runs but a slight shift northwards Id say. ECM snowfall distribution chart screenshot was posted in the model thread which agreed with the idea of snow mostly to North Wales and Midlands. Rain mostly for low ground in South Wales, possibility of it turning to sleet/snow for inland areas as the low heads south east before precipitation clears away.

 

So why do the BBC / Met Office graphic say otherwise then (even in latest bulletins).

 

I am not disputing the more northerly track of UKMO4, and its inevitable consequences.

 

My gut feel remains that top of Valleys as probably southern extent, but happy to proven wrong!!!

Edited December 25, 2014 by J10

[Jackfrost]

Make that the central part of the valleys Ju, and I'll personally be a very happy camper!

[whiskers]

Make that the central part of the valleys Ju, and I'll personally be a very happy camper!

I would be happy to! Let's make a gang and do a snow dance!!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

So why did the BBC / Met Office graphic say otherwise then.

 

My gut feel remains that top of Valleys as probably southern extent, but happy to proven wrong!!!

 

I'm also slightly confused by that to, GFS 18Z keeps the track of the low similar to previous runs.

 

I agree with you with regards to the top of Valleys likely being the southern extent going by recent GFS/NMM/EURO4 data. 

 

BBC stressing uncertainty on twitter with regards to this:

https://twitter.com/bbcweather

[J10]

2 Questions

 

What will EURO4 say?

 

and why am I on here on Christmas Night ?

[Jackfrost]

and why am I on here on Christmas Night ?

 

Because it beats watching Only Fools and Horses and Vicar of Dibley re-runs.

Edited December 25, 2014 by Jackfrost

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Updated Met Office graphic posted about an hour ago on twitter: https://twitter.com/Sue_Charles/status/548242439044345856

 

EURO4 18Z seems to extend the snow risk slightly further south but much of the south remains in a mild sector while precipitation is present.