Wales - Weather Chat

[snefnug]

Hmmm. Shurrly som mistake? Maybe text typer been on a crimbie do, because over in the slough of despond/model thread they are all bewailing ECM and some short trough kyboshing any chance of snow....

[keithlucky]

Hmmm. Shurrly som mistake? Maybe text typer been on a crimbie do, because over in the slough of despond/model thread they are all bewailing ECM and some short trough kyboshing any chance of snow....

The met has access to information which netweather drama queens  cannot see ,lets hope that the weather gods are on our side!l

[J10]

I think the model swings  in recent days shows why caution is needed, the difference beyond Christmas in 2 days is considerable.

 

For Christmas itself I would guess on a frosty one, but this still at T+168 a lifetime in weather terms.

[Blackjack]

The bipolar angst of the mod thread continues. The coldies loving the ECM and 06GFS....but as always the love is for charts outside the reliable time frame and aways things out a few days into the future. Last week it was all about the snow around Boxing Day onwards now it's the snow around New Years Eve.

I'm trying not to get dragged in but it's compelling stuff.

[Snowmadsam]

So I thought as a liitle region exclusive if you will, that I would help some of those newer members understand why we are having such difficulty in pinning things down post Christmas! (Please prepare your-selves folks!!)

 

The main difficulty is the dramatic contrasts in the models, a good example is this mornings GFS 0z compared to the 6z. The operational runs are widely contrasting with their outcomes (one run being mild and the other being cold). The GFS ensembles also don't give us a clear picture either due to the spread amongst them between the colder conditions and milder conditions. This flip-flopping way the models are running is usually a tell-tale sign that the pattern is set to change, but to what nature is NOT at all pinned down as of yet.

 

Now, what is so useful for us is the use of the ECMWF model, this model DOES have credibility in terms of reliability, but it does also have its hindrances as well such as being firm on the selection of charts it has generated and does not have a sudden change of heart with weather patterns, it prefers to backdown slowly. What is interesting today from the 0z run of the ECMWF was that it's operational run (which is the run that can be seen on Netweather) was the mildist set of the whole ECM ensemble. The ECM ensemble itself tended to go for a cooler pattern, but it was very difficult to tell because of this flip-floping pattern that models are churning out.

 

I'm not sure how many of you watch Gavin Partridge's videos, but he explains the whole process in a very visual, engaging and informative way. He also spoke about seasonal model output today and compared 2 seasonal models for a month ahead forecast - the Japanese model (JMA) and the CFS (American model), both had a colder signal to them which may suggest a higher degree in confidence in colder conditions occuring. But this is in no way or form a done deal.

 

Stay Tuned to the models folks! There's a lot coming up! (It's almost like a soap!)

[Ukwoody]

Good post Sam. Thanks.

[J10]

Latest Ski Blog is now out for those interested

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4856-alps-weather-forecast-20-december-2014/

 

As usual it shows the GFS (P) runs for the week ahead.

 

Still very much keeping an eye on the what lies after this.

[keithlucky]

Heavy snow for the 27th of December    GET IN  THERE :yahoo:

Edited December 19, 2014 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

I hope it does snow but I'm not getting too excited until its within a reliable time range.

[Daniel*]

Heavy snow for the 27th of December GET IN THERE :yahoo:

Yes some heavy snow is shown in your part of the world as LP bumps into the cold air, I reckon it could be a matter of being initially being snow on the leading edge then turning to rain as the milder sector passes through and then back to snow on the western flank, devil is in the detail.

Not to get excited at this stage - but it seems feasible with the bbc weather extended forecast going for it although the track is uncertain, that will make alll the difference whether you'll recieve a soaking or a snow fest...or both.

Edited December 19, 2014 by Daniel*

[Blackjack]

Thanks Sam for the post...and true to form things have flipped again this morning. Despondency in the Mod thread. Something is definitely brewing but...what, we will have to have patience to find out

[keithlucky]

Thanks Sam for the post...and true to form things have flipped again this morning. Despondency in the Mod thread. Something is definitely brewing but...what, we will have to have patience to find out

We need to watch how the Azores High pressure developes looks like the favored NE of Scotland is only chance of a White xmas ATM.

[TonyH]

Its not happening (again) according to the MO folk  :smiliz39:

Heavy snow for the 27th of December    GET IN  THERE :yahoo:

Try not to be so easily taken in by the models Keith :smiliz19:

[Blackjack]

Nope no-one should be so easily taken in by the models. Even the mild lovers.

Following on from Sams post. If we were to return to a bog standard Atlanic driven period surly the models would have found the solution easier and quicker?

Is the sign of the AO and NAO going neg to neutral playing havoc with them? Is potential Strat warming having an impact?

The flip flopping seems too chaotic to bring us back to SWly Atlantic weather.

[J10]

I think the model swings in recent days shows why caution is needed, the difference beyond Christmas in 2 days is considerable.

For Christmas itself I would guess on a frosty one, but this still at T+168 a lifetime in weather terms.

My post from a few days ago remains completely apt. There is so much volatility in the models it is almost if they are taking the mickey.

Even if we were to look at ECM the ensembles and the operational run are completely at odds with each other.

There will continue to be flip flops whatever we finally get.

Heavy snow for the 27th of December GET IN THERE :yahoo:

Keep posting these charts.

Hopefully they will come off, and if not they are very handy as they can be judged against what actually occurred, so we can compare synoptically what went wrong.

Edited December 20, 2014 by J10

[andymusic]

Hiya folks,things starting to look a bit more positive now for the new year though in truth December has probably had more frosts already than last years winter on its own. Seeing the current evolution on the forecasting thread I thought Andy would have been all over this by now,surely it's only a matter of time.

Watching the models - but no real firm "snow" set ups so far this winter - we might get the odd flake on the 27th if that low gets all worked up - but still looking a bit daunting for anything really good to contrast with recent winters - will have to wait to get into Jan/Feb - coldest months I think!

[keithlucky]

Its not happening (again) according to the MO folk  :smiliz39:

Try not to be so easily taken in by the models Keith :smiliz19:

Always look on the bright side of life!T models are just a guide, very rare they correct past 2days ,but they can spot trends, but still 27th still looks promising  http://t.co/vCGXObutgQ

Edited December 20, 2014 by keithlucky

[Jackfrost]

The cold is apparently back on, with somebody in the mod thread even drawing comparison with the fabled blizzard of 1982.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Dont fall for it guys...it won't happen. Just keep telling yourselves that and you won't be disappointed when it doesn't happen.

[keithlucky]

The cold is apparently back on, with somebody in the mod thread even drawing comparison with the fabled blizzard of 1982.

We done best in the west on that occasion 2 fronts stalled over Wales producing 24hrs of constant snow ,what a day that was!

[Jackfrost]

Yeah, I can't deny that it's an event I'm fascinated by Keith; i was born eight years too late!

 

I posted a thread about it over two years. Some of the links are now dead, but it's good to reminisce.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74405-blizzard-of-january-1982/

[J10]

Dont fall for it guys...it won't happen. Just keep telling yourselves that and you won't be disappointed when it doesn't happen.

 

In which case why even bother looking at snow in the UK. Part of the the roller coaster of following snow is chasing it, of course we get it wrong sometimes. But there on Net weather no one on here who gets all the forecasts correct.

 

I seem to recall Wrexham had the one of the biggest snow events in living memory in March 2013, when people said on this forum it wouldn't happen then either. Other parts of Wales had diddly squat. 

 

http://www.wrexham.com/news/wrexham-snow-updates-friday-22nd-march-2-29991.html

 

So far this year there has been a great variety of weather, a great summer followed by seemingly endless thunderstorms early October and all sorts ever since.

Edited December 20, 2014 by J10

[TonyH]

We done best in the west on that occasion 2 fronts stalled over Wales producing 24hrs of constant snow ,what a day that was!

Missed it as still in the Midlands only 6 inches or so there! A foot or 2 here from what I can gather, even on the coast.

Nope no-one should be so easily taken in by the models. Even the mild lovers.

Following on from Sams post. If we were to return to a bog standard Atlanic driven period surly the models would have found the solution easier and quicker?

Is the sign of the AO and NAO going neg to neutral playing havoc with them? Is potential Strat warming having an impact?

The flip flopping seems too chaotic to bring us back to SWly Atlantic weather.

Not guilty your honour  :smiliz34:

[J10]

We done best in the west on that occasion 2 fronts stalled over Wales producing 24hrs of constant snow ,what a day that was!

 

I remember that event, over a foot of lying snow, something that doesn't happen every day, well to be honest every decade.

That is why we remember them so well.

[Jackfrost]

 That is why we remember them so well.

 

It's a shame that 1963 is now so long ago and has largely faded from memory: that year saw 165cm of lying snow in Tredegar, the UK record snow depth for a major populated area.

 

Just goes to show how the high elevation and proximity to the sea of inland Southeast Wales can work in our favour when the circumstances are right.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Jackfrost