Wales - Weather Chat

[dbaloo]

first real heavy snowfall i can remember was in jan 1996.......(i think).we all got sent home from school with a few inches on the ground took nearly an hour to go from ystrad mynach to cascade , then within a few hours there was nearly a foot of snow.snowed from 11am until late at night.had a full week off.didnt see another good snowfall like that for a good while after!

[J10]

It's a shame that 1963 is now so long ago and has largely faded from memory: that year saw 165cm of lying snow in Tredegar, the UK record snow depth for a major populated area.

 

Just goes to show how the high elevation and proximity to the sea of inland Southeast Wales can work in our favour when the circumstances are right.

 

That's well before my time as well Ash.

[Jackfrost]

Ah, you remember my name Jules!

 

It's rather sad and indicative of our lack of major snowstorms in Wales in the last decade or so that the deepest snow I have any real memory of is the fall of December 17th 2010. Still, major snowstorms have happened around here in the past (including twice in under four years: 1978 and 1982) so it's bound to happen again at some point.

[J10]

first real heavy snowfall i can remember was in jan 1996.......(i think).we all got sent home from school with a few inches on the ground took nearly an hour to go from ystrad mynach to cascade , then within a few hours there was nearly a foot of snow.snowed from 11am until late at night.had a full week off.didnt see another good snowfall like that for a good while after!

 

I remember that well, in Dec 1995 we wrote our car off in Reading. The car skidded on ice from a car wash which has washed across the road on the Basingstoke Road in the road towards the centre.

 

So we went car hunting (in a hire car) up to Empress , leaving home in the rain , there was snow on the cars in Cwmcarn, but by the time we got up to Abertillery there was thick snow on the ground, this was Jan 1996

 

In Feb 1996, rain pushed in from the west and turned readily to snow inland with around 18 inches of snow at Ebbw Vale and rain at sea level.

 

Where we were at the time there was 30 hours of non stop sleet and snow, however it struggled to settle daytime and we had around 4-6 inches, with the overnight snow, if it all settled we would have had 10-12 inches.

Edited December 20, 2014 by J10

[snefnug]

In which case why even bother looking at snow in the UK. Part of the the roller coaster of following snow is chasing it, of course we get it wrong sometimes. But there on Net weather no one on here who gets all the forecasts correct.
 
I seem to recall Wrexham had the one of the biggest snow events in living memory in March 2013, when people said on this forum it wouldn't happen then either. Other parts of Wales had diddly squat. 

 

 
In Glyn Ceiriog we had snowy xmas 2010 and the most awful March 2013 - many fsrmers lost hundreds of their sheep and an amber warning too late that I don't recall turning red (i dont't know how to check meto for past warnings). Much as I love the mind fantasy of a white Christmas, that month was horrendous and reminded me of Hognaston (Derbyshire ) early '80s where we walked six miles into town to get supplies (and get into the warmth of one of the many pubs in Ashbourne).

Anyway, what will be will be.

Good Yule folks. Edited December 20, 2014 by J10

[J10]

 

In Glyn Ceiriog we had snowy xmas 2010 and the most awful March 2013 - many fsrmers lost hundreds of their sheep and an amber warning too late that I don't recall turning red (i dont't know how to check meto for past warnings). Much as I love the mind fantasy of a white Christmas, that month was horrendous and reminded me of Hognaston (Derbyshire ) early '80s where we walked six miles into town to get supplies (and get into the warmth of one of the many pubs in Ashbourne).

Anyway, what will be will be.

Good Yule folks.

 

Sad to hear that. I think sometimes we forget the damage snow can do. (we were cut off for several days in 82 as well )

 

So Point Taken

Edited December 20, 2014 by J10

[dbaloo]

quite enjoying the talks of times gone by here tonight, makes a change from the nut house that is the model thread!

[keithlucky]

Yes 1978 was great heavy rain was forecasted snow on hills started at 6 pm blizzard conditions on swansea coast 20f foot snow drifts  .And yes Tony not forecasted, came back to Swansea from Devon took 9hrs thank god the old steel plated cold Landrover got us home at 15 mph LOL

Edited December 20, 2014 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

So after all the hype Met Office latest forecast cold across UK after a mild Monday fingures crossed.

[Blackjack]

Yes 1978 was great heavy rain was forecasted snow on hills started at 6 pm blizzard conditions on swansea coast 20f foot snow drifts  .And yes Tony not forecasted, came back to Swansea from Devon took 9hrs thank god the old steel plated cold Landrover got us home at 15 mph LOL

My parents talk about that. They were at the Langland Hotel when it started. Got out just in time to make it back to Morriston.

[Blackjack]

Consternation in the Mod thread. This is fascinating. Mildies and Coldies unite in confusion over the coming week.

27th - 28th It is going to be gripping to see what plays out and what follows.

[TonyH]

Clear enough to me that its very mild and at times wet to Tuesday night (around or above 10c night and day) cools to around average (6 to 8c) Christmas Eve and Day when the weather is fairly dry and quiet, then the potential storm for Friday night or Saturday:

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4857-weather-guide-monday-22nd-to-sunday-28th-december-2014/

Edited December 21, 2014 by TonyH

[J10]

My latest take on the charts GFS  + GFS (P) 12 Hz is in the MOD thread

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82046-model-output-discussion-the-run-in-to-christmas/?p=3093812

 

Ramp -  The coldest NNW blast of the winter so far is currently forecasted on some main models, with uppers of -8c to -9c, which which haven't seen in a number of years in a NNW flow.

 

What could possibly go wrong -  The pattern may really not pan as suggest and even if it does, downgrades to a normal cold NW are more than possible.

 

Clear enough to me that its very mild and at times wet to Tuesday night (around or above 10c night and day) cools to around average (6 to 8c) Christmas Eve and Day when the weather is fairly dry and quiet, then the potential storm for Friday night or Saturday:

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4857-weather-guide-monday-22nd-to-sunday-28th-december-2014/

 

Agree with that

Edited December 21, 2014 by J10

[welshwizard]

Hi All been quite a horrible past few days with lots of blowing drizzle that gets you very very wet, so no sign of cold winter as yet, I know its still early but clock ticks faster and faster after xmas. I wonder if the papers be right that winter will kick in around end of December. just sit back and wait. hope every one has a great xmas and fab new year.

[DeepSnow]

Back in Tondu for 2 weeks before going back to uni, would be nice to get some snow before going back!

[keithlucky]

Very nice chart still continue for the 27th a cold wintry NW flow

[Jayfromcardiff]

Very nice chart still continue for the 27th a cold wintry NW flow

Hi Keith, are we still on for snow during saturday or is it looking like rain and wind?  Cheers.

[keithlucky]

Hi Keith, are we still on for snow during saturday or is it looking like rain and wind?  Cheers.

Still looks good for a winter blast but will this chart be still here on the 27?

[J10]

Still looks good for a winter blast but will this chart be still here on the 27?

 

My post in the MOD thread  pretty much agreeing with your sentiment

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82079-model-output-discussion-the-final-stretch-to-christmas/?p=3094128

 

Looks promising but as you say things can and probably will change.

 

No model agreement at moment.

[dbaloo]

its all flip flopped again in the model thread this morning. Hard to say what's going on past boxing day I think let alone new year!

[keithlucky]

27TH and the 28th northerly still showing lets hope we see a snowflake across Wales !

[J10]

Opportunities still remain, and the GFS (P) is a lot better than this morning.

 

Clearly this can very easily change, in terms of pattern or slow downgrade..

 

Derek just said no White Christmas except Snowdon.

 

But Derek also said wintry showers following on behind the rain front on Friday.

Edited December 22, 2014 by J10

[marclt]

27TH and the 28th northerly still showing lets hope we see a snowflake across Wales !

A Pembrokeshire dangler maybe?!

[Snowmadsam]

It still staggers me how we have yet to see a solution to this!! Very much going to be a live event I think....

[keithlucky]

Best  chart so far with a low pressure sitting in the irish sea, great chart possible excitment for welsh weather watches.on the 27th with a bloody cold strong Northerly with frequent sleet or snow showers.

Edited December 22, 2014 by keithlucky