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Paul

By Paul
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whiskers Enthusiast

whiskers

Posted
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
  • Location: blackwood south wales 179m asl
Posted

It's so dark and those clouds are black/grey and moving so fast, it feels like the day after tomorrow! I feel there's something brewing! Fingers crossed its snow and not rain :)

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dbaloo Enthusiast

dbaloo

Posted
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy..warm summers but not so hot you can fry an egg on the ground
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
Posted

all very positive so far in the mod thread this evening

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

all very positive so far in the mod thread this evening

 

it would be, things looks very good for SE areas. :rofl:

 

Things seem to have moved away from a cold NW flow, (even GFS which keeps a NW flow isn't as cold as recent days)  with a cold NE flow instead. on the face of it not as good for Wales, but given the recent pattern who knows what could happen with the front.

 

If we don't get snow, perish the thought. a cold high into next week is very possible if ECM is correct.

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted

So frustrating, looks like no snow at all for us now. Oh well maybe next month.

 

Or even next year.  :oops:

 

( I know the same thing)

 

I will be posting on here tomorrow, with the latest on the models. But I know that some of you will be going to spend time with loved ones, and may not be on Net Weather for a few days.

 

So may I be the first to wish everyone ho read this thread a very happy Christmas and 2015.

 

Nadolig Llawen and Blwyddyn Newydd Dda i ti gyd.

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Blackjack Apprentice

Blackjack

Posted
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather, wind, snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Crickhowell 105m/343ft
Posted

So now there is an Easterly showing!!! We've been here before haven't we?

 

Strat thread is also 'warming' up. 

 

Ummmm. head down for the next few days and lets see what the state of play is come Saturday. 

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Jackfrost Aficionado

Jackfrost

Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly County, 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly County, 175m ASL
Posted

Latest BBC TV forecast shows snow over certain inland parts of Wales later on Boxing Day as the system moves in but stress placed on the uncertainty of the event.

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just looked at Meto some sleet and snow for some areas inland on Boxing day, but rain for most I would think. (Now starting to get into EURO4 range) This clearing away to start the weekend.

 

BBC Forecast with thanks to Jackfrost for the idea.

 

post-213-0-83786000-1419453908_thumb.jpg

 

High Pressure set to push in for Sunday, but how long with this last

Edited by J10
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Jackfrost Aficionado

Jackfrost

Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly County, 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly County, 175m ASL
Posted (edited)

I'm normally very cautious when it comes to this sort of setup (and any forecast of snow in general), but I suspect the little white patch on Derek's map will expand to cover the Valleys to as far north as perhaps Wrexham. Whether anything settles away from the hilltops is another matter.

 

Does anybody have any recollections of the December 21st '99 event and whether the synoptics were similar to what is expected on Boxing Day? I recall a significant rain-to-snow event on that date, and the fun and drama of getting stuck in Merthyr as a nine year old!

 

Meanwhile, this looks very hopeful (some of you may have seen this in the MOD thread).

 

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/547844842978820097

 

"Still large amounts of uncertainty over Boxing Day's low; 12z EURO4 turns rain increasingly to snow over Wales + parts of W Mids on Fri eve"

Edited by Jackfrost
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SnowStorm(Jamie) Contributor

SnowStorm(Jamie)

Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
Posted

Hi Guys,

 

Interesting to see the idea of a more southerly tracking low, opening up wintry potential to some parts of Wales.

 

EURO4 is now starting to show us how this might shape up, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see further changes in the track of this system in the next 48 hours.

 

Ive been keeping an eye on how the models develop this low, I took screenshots of the UKMO 12Z on the 21st and 22nd for the same time (27th) see below:

 

post-7888-0-27261000-1419456013_thumb.pn

 

Todays UKMO 12Z: 

post-7888-0-67943200-1419456112_thumb.gi

 

There are differences of course, the main one being the low isn't as deep as initially thought, but the idea of a flow from the North West behind the low seems pretty consistent to me.

 

12Z Euro 4 data shows some heavy precipitation moving in, a mild sector is present but also there is colder air flooding in on the NW flank of the low. A tricky one, Its going to be interesting to see how this one pans out but my thinking is a spell of snow is possible for Mid/East Wales, then wintry showers from the North West flow as the low heads south east.

 

Merry Christmas everyone! 

Jamie

 

 

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

Does anybody have any recollections of the December 21st '99 event and whether the synoptics were similar to what is expected on Boxing Day? I recall a significant rain-to-snow event on that date, and the fun and drama of getting stuck in Merthyr as a nine year old!

 

That night we left Swansea at 5pm to visit my brother in Bath and we arrived at 12:30am, a 7 and a half journey,  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/572364.stm

 

There was snow on the motorway from Bridgend but the fun started on the outskirts of Bath as a jack knifed lorry closed the road. That was the only snow I saw that winter .

Edited by J10
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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted

Yellow Alert of Snow for Wales : Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Conwy, Denbighshire, Flintshire, Gwynedd, Isle of Anglesey, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Powys, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Torfaen & Wrexham valid from 1100 Fri 26 Dec to 0600 Sat 27 Dec
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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted

Merry Christmas all :) Well the south is outside the warning area but is there still a chance for us?

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Jayfromcardiff Experienced

Jayfromcardiff

Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
Posted

Merry Christmas all :) Well the south is outside the warning area but is there still a chance for us?

Hopefully mate, my step dad works for British airways in rhoose and they've been told to be prepared for the weather. The low has been shifting south on every run, I can see it ending up on the south coast leading to snow for mid Wales southwards. If it does snow I think there will be 2-5cm on low ground and 10+ on high ground.

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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted
Jayfromcardiff, on 25 Dec 2014 - 11:15, said:

Hopefully mate, my step dad works for British airways in rhoose and they've been told to be prepared for the weather. The low has been shifting south on every run, I can see it ending up on the south coast leading to snow for mid Wales southwards. If it does snow I think there will be 2-5cm on low ground and 10+ on high ground.

Lol my step dad works for BA in rhoose aswell! Hopefully we will be able to enjoy the fun aswell :)

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Hopefully mate, my step dad works for British airways in rhoose and they've been told to be prepared for the weather. The low has been shifting south on every run, I can see it ending up on the south coast leading to snow for mid Wales southwards. If it does snow I think there will be 2-5cm on low ground and 10+ on high ground.

Amen to that :) I agree as fergie said it will 'go right to the wire' whether your under yellow or not it does not give you a definite chance of snow it is just guide which is prone to be sketchy. Wales will do well methinks. Southern extent is really guess work at this stage, until its happening *live*.

Merry Christmas

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Jackfrost Aficionado

Jackfrost

Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly County, 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly County, 175m ASL
Posted

The warning area misses me by no more than three miles. I realise the areas affected are likely to change by the minute tomorrow but it's still frustrating as hell!

 

I'm no longer sure which way I expect this to go: it could easily end up as a snowfest for a large area, while it could just as easily result in snow confined to the highest ground with other areas seeing sleet and cold rain.

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SnowStorm(Jamie) Contributor

SnowStorm(Jamie)

Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
Posted

Looking at the Euro4 18z, 0z & 06z the track has been pretty consistent giving snow to East and North Wales. In the past we have seen these type of features get pushed further south as we get closer to the event but that's not to say it will this time. Looking at the broad scale MetO warnings it appears to take into consideration both northern and southern tracks. Makes interesting model watching indeed.

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dbaloo Enthusiast

dbaloo

Posted
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy..warm summers but not so hot you can fry an egg on the ground
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
Posted

looking good for tomorrow across a large area of Wales now!

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

Not sure if anyone just saw the BBC forecast but they had snow even on the south coast of Wales for around 4 hours at least tomorrow.

Really that has got me excited and I'm not even from Walse it raises hope for me. Was anything shown around the Home Counties bar rain? This is great news as it shows the southern extent is increasing. :) funny how many normal folk are oblivious to what may come or is to come. (the English have invaded)

Edited by Daniel*
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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

Really that has got me excited and I'm not even from Walse it raises hope for me. Was anything shown around the Home Counties bar rain? This is great news as it shows the southern extent is increasing. :) funny how many normal folk are oblivious to what may come or is to come.

Good Luck to the Welsh tomorrow!! Be in here reading your reports through the day, outside chance of me seeing something down in South Midlands(Oxford) so developments from you guys will be interesting as the day goes on!

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Not sure if anyone just saw the BBC forecast but they had snow even on the south coast of Wales for around 4 hours at least tomorrow.

where was that forecast?

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