Wales - Weather Chat

[snowy36]

I hate to say it but I think everything points to a mild, wet and windy winter

 

I disagree  , no one know's how   El Nino is going to affect us and with the sun going into a quite faze it looks interesting to me.  I think we will see this   a lot this winter.

[whiskers]

I've been doing the same!watching snow videos on youtube,thought I was mad! So the watching starts,fed up of summer,bring on autumn and winter!

[keithlucky]

I disagree  , no one know's how   El Nino is going to affect us and with the sun going into a quite faze it looks interesting to me.  I think we will see this   a lot this winter.

2010 repeat possible with jet stream being pushed south ,https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCMQFjABahUKEwjXj536y7XHAhXiaNsKHTj1AAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fveryweather.co.uk%2Fsevere-winter-due-to-el-nino%2F&ei=aLLUVde7D-LR7Qa46oNQ&usg=AFQjCNHS5suHEgaXwfMMGY_gWPoCtH4RPQ

[whiskers]

2010 repeat possible with jet stream being pushed south ,https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCMQFjABahUKEwjXj536y7XHAhXiaNsKHTj1AAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fveryweather.co.uk%2Fsevere-winter-due-to-el-nino%2F&ei=aLLUVde7D-LR7Qa46oNQ&usg=AFQjCNHS5suHEgaXwfMMGY_gWPoCtH4RPQ

And so the fun begins,will it wont it,highs and lows,so near so far! Can't wait bring it on!!

[snowy36]

2010 repeat possible with jet stream being pushed south ,https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCMQFjABahUKEwjXj536y7XHAhXiaNsKHTj1AAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fveryweather.co.uk%2Fsevere-winter-due-to-el-nino%2F&ei=aLLUVde7D-LR7Qa46oNQ&usg=AFQjCNHS5suHEgaXwfMMGY_gWPoCtH4RPQ

Plus we had a solar minimum then, it wont be a total solar minimum but it will be going down. The only thing is the blob in the pacific, what effect will that have. Good or Bad it will be interesting.    

Edited August 19, 2015 by snowy36

[keithlucky]

Plus we had a solar minimum then, it wont be a total solar minimum but it will be going down. The only thing is the blob in the pacific, what effect will that have. Good or Bad it will be interesting.    

Extreme cold on the way says former NOAA meteorologist

[alr1970]

We've taken ourselves off to Anglesey camping for the weekend, and have been rewarded with a beautiful sunny morning, and it's forecast to stay that way. A lovely day.

[dbaloo]

would love to see a few weather forecasts like this for winter!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2wNvCQ6a-ng

[whiskers]

The current El Niño event over the tropical Pacific could be on track to be one of the strongest in more than 60 years, experts have claimed.

Forecasters from the UN's World Meteorological Organisation are also warning the weather phenomenon may gather strength and reach its peak between October and January – with its effects felt for many weeks afterwards.

El Niño events happen every few years when the wind shifts in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

It can have devastating consequences for agriculture and disease and influences heavy rain in North and South America and higher temperatures in Asia and Africa.

According to the UN body, surface water temperatures in eastern-central parts of the Pacific Ocean are expected to be 2C higher than usual, well above the threshold for an El Niño.

Similar El Niño events took place in 1972, 1982 and 1997, and each lasted for about a year on average.

The WMO's prediction came days after NASA's Earth Observatory released images of three Category 4 storms travelling across the Pacific Ocean simultaneously.

Hurricanes in the Pacific are generally solitary storms – and although they do occasionally show up in pairs, three in the same area is unprecedented.

NASA's pictures, from west to east, show hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena.

Hurricane Ignacio was the closest to Hawaii with sustained wind speeds of 140mph an hour.

But it has rapidly weakened and is travelling further away from the Big Island.

However, Hurricane Jimena remains a powerful Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of about 130mph.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Centre in Honolulu, high surf could reach south and east-facing shores in the coming days, and its forecasters are warning the swells could be life-threatening.

[whiskers]

How do you think this could effect our weather?

[snefnug]

Meto says El Nino only has marginal effect on our weather - other factors can be stronger.  Maybe this is an outcome - more rain.....

 

From Meto Blog:

 

What does this mean for the UK?

There has been some media speculation about how the El Niño conditions could impact our weather over the coming months.

However, even a strong El Niño only slightly changes the risk of extreme UK spring and summer weather and we wouldn’t expect it to be the dominant driver of our weather over the next few months.

Looking further ahead, there are a number of factors that affect winter conditions in Britain. The  increase in risk of a colder winter this year from the developing El Niño is currently considered small.

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

As long as we don't have a repeat of the diabolical "winter" of 2013/14 anytime soon I'm not overly fussed.

As for today, pretty annoying how we have been stuck under a cluster of heavy showers all morning which is pretty much confined to North East Wales, West Cheshire and Merseyside. More than half an inch of rain here.

[whiskers]

Brrrr,it's getting chilly in the mornings and evenings,it's only 10degrees now,probably colder than all of last winter!!!

[whiskers]

Wow,really cold here,it's now 12:30am and it's six degrees!!!!!!!! I can see my breath when I breath out!!!!!!!!

[Jackfrost]

Real chance of a patchy ground frost in sheltered spots here in Southeast Wales tonight. The first frost is always a big event for me and always justifies a walk sometime around dawn as long as I can force myself to get up, but September 6th really is an early date for a frost.

 

Not that I'm complaining!

[kar999]

Another cloudless sunny morning here in Snowdonia. The rugrats have gone but the mackerel are still about. I can feel another fishing trip down the Llyn coming on this evening!

Even the top of Snowdon is cloudless.

[snefnug]

Two days of misty mornings with burnoff mid afternoon. Weirdy the other day - reverse - clear warm morning, cloud rolls in around midday, foggy bottom afternoon and much lower temps.

Tomatos not ripening, nor squash, but bumper blackerry hauls from dog walking. Blackberry whisky for yule gifts methinks.

[whiskers]

Two days of misty mornings with burnoff mid afternoon. Weirdy the other day - reverse - clear warm morning, cloud rolls in around midday, foggy bottom afternoon and much lower temps.

Tomatos not ripening, nor squash, but bumper blackerry hauls from dog walking. Blackberry whisky for yule gifts methinks.

same here,have loads of green tomatoes and 3 ripe ones! I usually start picking them in July! What's wrong? Sure there's an old wives tale for this!? I think it's green tomatoes,blizzards all winter !!!!!

[dragon falls]

Is the rain band heading this way been dry all day here even sunny.

[whiskers]

It's 6am and five degrees! Don't think we had that last winter!!! Brrrrr you can feel the chill!!

[dbaloo]

starting to have the feel of 2009 at the moment.....warm end to September and early October forecast and a tweet from big Joe b saying the cold pool over the north Atlantic is pretty much in the same position as 2009....hopefully interesting times ahead!

[Clair_Witch]

We've been unlucky two winters in a row. I'm pretty hopeful and confident that we're due some real cold this year and a decent snowfall.

[dbaloo]

a few ripples of excitement in the mod thread the last few days...cold pools here, cold pools there.winter is coming!

Edited October 1, 2015 by dbaloo

[keithlucky]

Had to show this a regular ghostly appearance caught in a local hospital

[Daniel*]

Had to show this a regular ghostly appearance caught in a local hospital

Looks to me a manifestation of a sprit trying to communicate with living world - hospitals are notorious for such IMO - I'm not nutty believe it or not.