Wales - Weather Chat

[Ukwoody]

I'm confused now. Are we now agreed there will be basically no snow for south west wales - ie Pembs etc, until at least the weekend and into next week?

[Gee]

I think this has gone the way of the other 'cooler' periods of Winter this year.

 

A few days back, looking promising for a decent snowfall Wednesday, into Thursday for a lot of Wales.  

Now less than 24 hours out, will be lucky if we get a shower or 2.  

 

Though deep down, I am still hoping here for some decent snow over the weekend, into next week; but awaiting that to downgrade by Friday/Saturday too.

 

Such is living were we do. 

[keithlucky]

I'm confused now. Are we now agreed there will be basically no snow for south west wales - ie Pembs etc, until at least the weekend and into next week?

Refer to post i made yesterday ,

Seen this type of situation many times before ,4inchs of snow  and a dusting a few miles up the road so its radar  watching ,come Wednesday night!Thursday Friday Saturday etc etc.

Edited January 27, 2015 by keithlucky

[Cymro]

Personally not expecting much now, shower activity for tomorrow evening/thursday seems less than I would have hoped for us in South West Wales. North Wales however will do much better.

 

It's a shame that we always seem to be chasing snow and then it's watch for thursday, then thursday becomes saturday, saturday becomes Monday and before you know it we've had a dusting and voilla, cold spell over. Hmmmph

[Icequeen]

Ian f's latest post in SW thread.....

 

"Thursday early hrs/ early AM is particularly interesting, given the continued modelling of a small-scale cold front moving south through W Midlands/Bristol Channel. Theta-W fields show this well. We suspect this could yield more organised prospect of snow showers for some districts of W Country/central-S England early Thurs but await further runs before committing to the notion with deterministic confidence"

 

would this be relevant to south wales coast?

[Clair_Witch]

From what I can recall, I have never know Cardiff to be forecast a lot of snow. They always go for rain and sleet. The one time I remember we were warned a major snow storm was coming through and we ended up with a very slushy mess. It's always fallen unexpectedly. So fingers crossed, the game is on!

Edited January 27, 2015 by Clair_Witch

[Jayfromcardiff]

From what I can recall, I have never know Cardiff to be forecast a lot of snow. They always go for rain and sleet. The one time I remember we were warned a major snow storm was coming through and we ended up with a very slushy mess. It's always fallen unexpectedly. So fingers crossed, the game is on!

December 2010! Remember that, forecast nothing ended up with a foot.

[benb]

I'm still pretty confident about there being quite a bit of snow around early hours of Thursday, even in SW Wales- all the usual indicators point that way and it's such a ripe synoptic set-up.

 

The precipitation charts are perhaps the biggest concern-

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis06/ukuk/pr06/15012906_2706.gif

 

But I think in the event there'll be frequent showers and more organised bands of precipitation heading in off the Irish Sea with that NWerly wind pushing them well inland in the first part of Thursday. Anyway, proof of the pudding and all that.

 

Possible Pembroke Dangler set-up Sun/Mon, too...

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150127/12/135/h850t850eu.png

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150127/12/135/uksnowrisk.png

[keithlucky]

I'm still pretty confident about there being quite a bit of snow around early hours of Thursday, even in SW Wales- all the usual indicators point that way and it's such a ripe synoptic set-up.

 

The precipitation charts are perhaps the biggest concern-

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis06/ukuk/pr06/15012906_2706.gif

 

But I think in the event there'll be frequent showers and more organised bands of precipitation heading in off the Irish Sea with that NWerly wind pushing them well inland in the first part of Thursday. Anyway, proof of the pudding and all that.

 

Possible Pembroke Dangler set-up Sun/Mon, too...

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150127/12/135/h850t850eu.png

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150127/12/135/uksnowrisk.png

Fantastic output again! tonight MANY chances of snow over 5 days :yahoo:

Edited January 27, 2015 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

I'm still pretty confident about there being quite a bit of snow around early hours of Thursday, even in SW Wales- all the usual indicators point that way and it's such a ripe synoptic set-up.

 

The precipitation charts are perhaps the biggest concern-

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis06/ukuk/pr06/15012906_2706.gif

 

But I think in the event there'll be frequent showers and more organised bands of precipitation heading in off the Irish Sea with that NWerly wind pushing them well inland in the first part of Thursday. Anyway, proof of the pudding and all that.

 

Possible Pembroke Dangler set-up Sun/Mon, too...

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150127/12/135/h850t850eu.png

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150127/12/135/uksnowrisk.png

Is that a streamer I see setting up?

[bradymk]

Latest euro4 for +48, can see the precipitation over SW eng.

[Clair_Witch]

December 2010! Remember that, forecast nothing ended up with a foot.

Yep! What a wonderful surprise that was. It belted down!   Met Office forecast has changed slightly, now snow forecast at 9am Thursday, it previously was sleet.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Yep! What a wonderful surprise that was. It belted down!   Met Office forecast has changed slightly, now snow forecast at 9am Thursday, it previously was sleet.

Wouldn't trust them automated forecasts, just look at the radar tomorrow night. I remember before they had us down for heavy snow and there wasn't any ppn. Also look at the probability of ppn for that time and it shows 50% I think.

[benb]

Is that a streamer I see setting up?

 

I think the general set-up Weds/Thurs is favourable for streamers running in from windward coasts right across Wales, but that's not borne out on the precipitation charts, as of yet. NWerly wind is great for that. Wintry mix right on windward coasts, snow a couple of miles inland, I'd speculate.

 

Over the weekend, as the wind turns more Nerly, the showers are more likely to affect north facing coasts, with the usual areas (Pembrokeshire, Cardigan Bay) getting most of the action, hence the Dangler possibly setting up with possibility of snow from it later in the weekend.

 

(Though I wouldn't expect any snow away from mountain areas Fri/Sat).

[benb]

Latest euro4 for +48, can see the precipitation over SW eng.

15012912_2_2712.gif

 

Do you think we're in Ireland's precipitation 'shadow'? Or is there another reason precipitation seems to be limited over Wales at that time?

 

(I still think there'll be more for Wales than it shows there).

[Jayfromcardiff]

Do you think we're in Ireland's precipitation 'shadow'? Or is there another reason precipitation seems to be limited over Wales at that time?

 

(I still think there'll be more for Wales than it shows there).

Early hours Thursday looks very interesting, obviously subject to change but the BBC forecast showed an area of snow over south Wales around 6am, not sure how long it'll last though.

[Clair_Witch]

Wouldn't trust them automated forecasts, just look at the radar tomorrow night. I remember before they had us down for heavy snow and there wasn't any ppn. Also look at the probability of ppn for that time and it shows 50% I think.

 

They're  unsure and don't really know what's happening, at least we have a chance. Lamp posts will being watched up and down the country.

 

BBC national weather showed a few white blobs passing over us Thursday.

[Jayfromcardiff]

They're  unsure and don't really know what's happening, at least we have a chance. Lamp posts will being watched up and down the country.

 

BBC national weather showed a few white blobs passing over us Thursday.

It's annoying that the majority of snow chances are overnight when I have work the next day. Twice this month I've set my alarm to check and its just been rain falling haha.

[bradymk]

Do you think we're in Ireland's precipitation 'shadow'? Or is there another reason precipitation seems to be limited over Wales at that time?

 

(I still think there'll be more for Wales than it shows there).

The NW wind direction would suggest the fetch over the irish sea is not enough yes and that it is shadowing the precipitation, hence no showers over Wales on euro4. However euro4 not always great at picking up showers plus December 2010 was a north west wind similar direction to thursdays but the air may not be as unstable as then.

Edited January 27, 2015 by bradythemole

[keithlucky]

Do you think we're in Ireland's precipitation 'shadow'? Or is there another reason precipitation seems to be limited over Wales at that time?

 

(I still think there'll be more for Wales than it shows there).

Ireland covered on pp charts with snow showers. With a Nwest wind we should get plenty of showers by this time tomorrow .Just guess work as we all know

Edited January 27, 2015 by keithlucky

[bradymk]

If you're in West Wales (wish i was), sunday looks almost the perfect dangler setup, probably one of the best places to see snow on the weekend is the usual snowless pembrokeshire.

[worldairgroup]

Wouldn't trust them automated forecasts, just look at the radar tomorrow night. I remember before they had us down for heavy snow and there wasn't any ppn. Also look at the probability of ppn for that time and it shows 50% I think.

 

In your opinions guys which is the best radar to look at? If you could send some links it would be appreciated, thanks and good luck all. Let it snow!! LOL

[benb]

Ireland covered on pp charts with snow showers. With a Nwest wind we should get plenty of showers by this time tomorrow .Just guess work as we all know

 

I agree. Personally, I think there'll be showers crossing Ireland and then pepping up over the Irish Sea before reaching us, but it I've been wrong before!!

 

The NW wind direction would suggest the fetch over the irish sea is not enough yes and that it is shadowing the precipitation, hence no showers over Wales on euro4. However euro4 not always great at picking up showers plus December 2010 was a north west wind similar direction to thursdays but the air may not be as unstable as then.

 

Yes- it reminds me of then. I seem to remember GFS had the initial front arriving from the NW nailed to the minute! Yes- it may have been more unstable- I seem to remember streamers setting up all over the place in the 24hrs following that. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

In your opinions guys which is the best radar to look at? If you could send some links it would be appreciated, thanks and good luck all. Let it snow!! LOL

I've paid for the netweather radar -£3.49 for a month it's really good. You can zoom right into your postcode. Other than that you could try rain today, that's one I used a while ago. On another note lets see what Derek has to say regarding tomorrow night's snow.

[keithlucky]

Met was good but Netweather

 

In your opinions guys which is the best radar to look at? If you could send some links it would be appreciated, thanks and good luck all. Let it snow!! LOL

 

is as good as any http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=