Wales - Weather Chat

[lindy2222]

i see no reason why not

Where is Brynna.....?

[TonyH]

Don't worry as in 2010 he said it'll be mostly dry in the south east of Wales and I awoke to a few inches of snow and this continued for the following 6 hours. I can't see it raining in the west tomorrow night surely with cold uppers and all conditions look decent.

I tweeted Derek that I expect a couple of inches here Wed/ Thu and he favourited it

[keithlucky]

I think another positive for any wintry weather is the flow from the North/North West to last for quite some as shown on the ECM Mean:

 

EDM1-144.GIF

 

Details will be fine tuned over the next 24 hours regarding Thursday morning. One thing is noticeable is that the strong NW wind driving these showers well inland NMM 3km shows quite frequent snow showers for Mid & North Wales.

Think it was 1996 Polar low formed on a NW flow behind a cold front ,(and this air looks unstable) delivered 9 incs of snow between 6pm and 10 pm

Edited January 27, 2015 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

yep i agree derek likes his rain and sun more than snow so take it with a pinch of salt!

But surely he would not let personal preferences affect his forecasting judgement?

[goosey007]

Think it was 1996 Polar low formed on a NW flow behind a cold front ,(and this air looks unstable) delivered 9 incs of snow between 6pm and 10 pm

Yes yes yes even Newport got around 8 inches of snow off this type of set up I believe the front actually stalled our south Wales and the west. The snow stuck around all week and a week off school!! Best snow in south Wales in my life time even 2010 didn't match that!!

Edited January 27, 2015 by goosey007

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

Good evening all

What an interesting read so far  Have learned a lot!

Just wondering what are the chances for some snow in Kilgetty over the coming days?

Thank you in advance

Jayne

[Pembroke Dangler]

Pinched this from the mods thread but it's worth showing what could happen later next week and a trend I hope gathers momentum in the next few days! It shows a prolonging of the cold and the Atlantic weather systems being forced under the block centred just east of Iceland, the potential is there for undercuts to occur which could be the holy grail for snow for us in wales! Way off in la la land I know but a trend never the less!

[andymusic]

eyes down 18z on it's way - let's see if it joins the ecm party - talk of the beginnings of 1947 winter in the mod thread - who knows - welcome to snowfest eve lol

 

 

 

 

lovely

 

 

Edited January 27, 2015 by andymusic

[welshwizard]

i see no reason why not

Andy Brynna only ever gets fog and lots of it, its only 3 ft above sea level. ha ha micky will lv this reply not, he loves snow more than anyone in the world and when it does snow he gets me to make him some snow balls and put them in the freezer for him so he can play with them ha ha

[Cymro]

Certainly a more pronounced cold spell is on its way, where will the snow be? Your guess is as good as mine....not convinced we'll see much until the weekend however, perhaps a cm or 3 but nothing substantial.

[andymusic]

Certainly a more pronounced cold spell is on its way, where will the snow be? Your guess is as good as mine....not convinced we'll see much until the weekend however, perhaps a cm or 3 but nothing substantial.

I think you're in a prime position to get a good pasting out of this one

 

 

slight upgrade friday morning as we should have been in the "warm sector"

 

Edited January 27, 2015 by andymusic

[Cymro]

I think you're in a prime position to get a good pasting out of this one

 

 

slight upgrade friday morning as we should have been in the "warm sector"

 

 

 

I do hope you're right Andy! I've no doubt we will see snow probs by around 4pm tomorrow but how much and if it settles and lies around is something else. I want a good dumping that will last for a week on the ground.

[andymusic]

I do hope you're right Andy! I've no doubt we will see snow probs by around 4pm tomorrow but how much and if it settles and lies around is something else. I want a good dumping that will last for a week on the ground.

you been watching america too much - but ya never know - dumpings are possible - warm sector shorter on friday on this run

 

[bradymk]

you been watching america too much - but ya never know - dumpings are possible - warm sector shorter on friday on this run

 

Andy if you are using the gfs, you should use the 0.25" charts instead, there more accurate

[ancientsolar]

hopefully I'll have access to some camera(s) and record anything Thursday-Friday .. not easy at night when the snow normally hits.. but  I can always take a torch .. whether its for a cm or an inch! 

[bradymk]

Very snowy run for tuesday mid, north west & west wales from GFS 18z. Metoffice not expecting much snow for southern areas of the UK wednesday night to sunday. Some local accumulations of 2cm on lower levels but nothing noteworthy at the moment. North and west your best chance. What happens after sunday though could be more interesting. Await the Euro4 18z run with interest for thursday

Edited January 27, 2015 by bradythemole

[marclt]

Very snowy run for tuesday mid, north west & west wales from GFS 18z. Metoffice not expecting much snow for southern areas of the UK wednesday night to sunday. Some local accumulations of 2cm on lower levels but nothing noteworthy at the moment. North and west your best chance. What happens after sunday though could be more interesting. Await the Euro4 18z run with interest for thursday

 

Now you're just teasing us Brady!

[keithlucky]

Very snowy run for tuesday mid, north west & west wales from GFS 18z. Metoffice not expecting much snow for southern areas of the UK wednesday night to sunday. Some local accumulations of 2cm on lower levels but nothing noteworthy at the moment. North and west your best chance. What happens after sunday though could be more interesting. Await the Euro4 18z run with interest for thursday

Looks pretty wintry from Derek especially early hrs of Thursday as a band of showers rattles through S Wales early hrs with further heavy  hail /snow showers during the day..

[Jayfromcardiff]

Looks pretty wintry from Derek especially early hrs of Thursday as a band of showers rattles through S Wales early hrs with further heavy  hail /snow showers during the day..

Will it snow in Cardiff Keith? That's the £1m question haha.

[keithlucky]

Widespread snow Saturday Sunday  great fax chart

Will it snow in Cardiff Keith? That's the £1m question haha.

Even on bluebirds supporters LOL

[DeepSnow]

Is it likely to be cold enough at sea level? or is it going to be marginal for us on the coast?

[Cymro]

We have the usual evening ramp, tomorrow morning we will be deflated again only to be more upbeat come the evening.

[marclt]

It's a rollercoaster @Cymro!

[Cymro]

It's a rollercoaster @Cymro!

Certainly is, some of the most interesting charts I've seen in a few years, they are screaming potential, but we just need them to actually come to fruition now rather than stay as pretty pictures on our faithful screens.

[Stevetynant]

Looks pretty wintry from Derek especially early hrs of Thursday as a band of showers rattles through S Wales early hrs with further heavy  hail /snow showers during the day..

Snow and S WALES in the same post.never thought I was going to see it despite the mini ice age developing all around us.