Wales - Weather Chat

[Jackfrost]

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic (and almost 1000 miles to the South of us in Wales):

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-30978320

 

And to think it's an enormous achievement to see 10cm in this country, while the prospect of 2 is enough to send us into a frenzy!

[SLAMMER]

seems to be a bit of a frenzy over there as well.

[marclt]

Carol Kirkwood must be reading Jack Frost's comments this morning.

In the last 30 mins she's changed her tune. It's gone from cold this week/next. Now next week won't be as cold as this week.

Hmm... Plenty of time for everything to change!

[Jayfromcardiff]

As I expected downgrades, probably end up 2-3 days of below average temperatures with some sleet or snow (settling only above 100m) then back to the norm of wind and rain. Hate to be negative but every potential cold spell has resulted in this so far this winter.

[Jackfrost]

It's not negative Jay, it's realistic.

 

I suspect our mediocre winters are down to climate change. Since 2000 (or 1990, if you like) how many severely cold winter months have we had? One - December 2010. Several have been notably cold. That's one severely cold month and a handful of notably cold months, no more than five or six depending on definition, in twenty-five years. Twenty-five years.

 

I fear we're going to have get used to a lot of this in the future. The odd blip may happen, we might see a cold spell here and there, but in general I suspect winters like 2006-7 and 2013-14 will become the norm. Our winters may resemble those they currently see in the Mediterranean (but with our summers much more variable, naturally).

Edited January 26, 2015 by Jackfrost

[TonyH]

Still the same outlook applies for this coming week, turning wintry with snow for many from Wednesday. Staying cold at least through the weekend. I never hang on anything beyond 7 days.

Edited January 26, 2015 by TonyH

[andymusic]

snowy fun just 54hrs away - don't be getting despondent - wind chill alone will make most precip snow in wales

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote - Teits - Derbyshire tend to do well in these situations as does Wales.

 

 

chance of upgrade on the 6zs

 

Edited January 26, 2015 by andymusic

[worldairgroup]

snowy fun just 54hrs away - don't be getting despondent - wind chill alone will make most precip snow in wales

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote - Teits - Derbyshire tend to do well in these situations as does Wales.

 

 

chance of upgrade on the 6zs

 

 

then someone downgraded TEITS quote on MOD thread LOL. Damn it.

[worldairgroup]

meanwhile as we dream - http://news.sky.com/story/1414982/historic-blizzard-to-slam-us-northeast

[Pembroke Dangler]

This is going to be unusual should it occur.

 

I am so used to looking for snow showers from the NE/E but never coming from the cheshire gap.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs813.gif

 

Derbyshire tend to do well in these situations as does Wales.

This set up seems very ripe for an old Pembroke Dangler, Its a trough which is shaped like a tree branch which hugs the western side of wales pepping up shower activity, and can cause snow streamers off the irish sea, il be looking for this in next few fax charts sorry mods if a bit of an imby post but we tend to do very well out these types of set ups!!

[knocker]

This set up seems very ripe for an old Pembroke Dangler, Its a trough which is shaped like a tree branch which hugs the western side of wales pepping up shower activity, and can cause snow streamers off the irish sea, il be looking for this in next few fax charts sorry mods if a bit of an imby post but we tend to do very well out these types of set ups!!

 

Living in Cornwall that's not quite my understanding of it. It can give some quite heavy precipitation in Cornwall.

 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/216

[Pembroke Dangler]

Living in Cornwall that's not quite my understanding of it. It can give some quite heavy precipitation in Cornwall.

 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/216

It's dependent on the wind direction and the dynamics of the upper air instability, if the wind is nnw it pushes the trough slightly more in land and develops branches like a twig at the convergence zone. Cant find any past pics to show it though.

[andymusic]

 

west is best

 

lovely

 

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2015 by andymusic

[whiskers]

 

west is best

 

lovely

 

 

 

 

Thanks andy,that's what we want,someone showing us what is going to happen in the reliable time frame,not whats going to happen next week,I know things can change at short notice but at least we have a chance. I just want to know whats happening now,are we having snow?looking at those maps I guess yes!

[freeze for all]

Keeping my feet firmly on the ground with this cos yet again it looks like it's been blown out of proportion! Average JANUARY weather coming up with a chance of rain sleet or snow depending where u live...... Rain or sleet for me

[keithlucky]

Keeping my feet firmly on the ground with this cos yet again it looks like it's been blown out of proportion! Average JANUARY weather coming up with a chance of rain sleet or snow depending where u live...... Rain or sleet for me

-7 uppers for Thursday plenty of streamer activity ,i cannot understand why so much negativity.Perfect set up for us in the west!

Edited January 26, 2015 by keithlucky

[worldairgroup]

-7 uppers for Thursday plenty of streamer activity ,i cannot understand why so much negativity.Perfect set up for us in the west!

 

because your in the west and we are in the east LOL

[Jayfromcardiff]

-7 uppers for Thursday plenty of streamer activity ,i cannot understand why so much negativity.Perfect set up for us in the west!

Still no warnings for us, the met office don't think were going to see much in the way of snow .

[Pembroke Dangler]

-7 uppers for Thursday plenty of streamer activity ,i cannot understand why so much negativity.Perfect set up for us in the west!

Indeed i will be keeping a keen eye on the Radar come thursday night could be first settling snow here for 20 odd months

[Clair_Witch]

I keep telling myself all the best snowfalls come unexpectedly.

[keithlucky]

Wednesday Thursday

Edited January 26, 2015 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Indeed i will be keeping a keen eye on the Radar come thursday night could be first settling snow here for 20 odd months

Latest from the Met office rain showers Wednesday turning to snow Wednesday night heavy at times ,further snow at times Thursday .i expect a weather warning from the met office in the next 24hrs to 36hrs.

[TonyH]

Wednesday Thursday

Hopes are diminishing though Keith, you only have to take into account the snow levels on those maps they are getting higher.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Wednesday Thursday

Unless you live above 300m don't expect settling snow is basically what that chart shows mate.

[bradymk]

The GFS weather type/snow risk/snow level charts are all just a bit of fun and almost always turn out to be inaccurate as the time comes closer, be that for increasing or decreasing chances of snow.

 

Better to look at a combination of other charts such as wet bulb level, dew points and the upper temperatures.

 

Uppers for early Thursday, -7/-8c across Wales (as a rare guide from this type of situation, -5/-6 uppers can be sufficient)

 

The wet-bulb is the lowest temperature to which air can be cooled by evaporation, often important in determining whether it will rain or snow at or near the surface.

 

For Thursday am, this down to below 200 metres for all of Wales also suggesting snowfall even to lower levels.

 

Dew points are below freezing for all, also supporting snowfall to low levels.

 

Thickness also supportive of snowfall,ideally you want it light blue or darker for a good chance of seeing snow.

 

So don't get too hung up on snow chances end of the week yet. North and west Wales will most likely see the most precipitation and therefore the highest risk of snow.

Thursday will come under high resolution euro4 tomorrow morning so we will have a better idea then.

 

If you want to check out what 12z GFS has for these charts above, check here

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201501261200&VAR=taup&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=1&PERIOD=&WMO=

Edited January 26, 2015 by bradythemole