December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)

[BornFromTheVoid]

From 0900 yesterday to 0900 today I believe. The minimum figure goes forward to the next day when 24hr readings are taken at 0900.

 

That's why on my own AWS I've always used 0000-0000, its an utter nightmare otherwise.

 

Gotcha, thanks.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.6C big rise due for today and tomorrow so Friday morning we're probably looking at 5.1C Monday and Tuesday looking very mild as well. Friday and Sat just above average due to the wind keeping temps up. So I reckon by the end of Tuesday Sunny Sheffield will be around 5.2 to 5.3C

[Summer Sun]

5.0c to the 17th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday was 8.4C, the mildest day of the month so far. The minimum today is 10.7C, while maxima look like reaching about 14C, so an increase to 5.4C (or perhaps 5.5C) is likely on tomorrows update. This is almost certain to break the daily record of 11.4C, though unlikely to challenge for the highest daily mean ever recorded in December.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at:

5.5C to the 19th (6.5)

5.6C to the 20th (6.8]

5.7C to the 21st (8.5)

5.9C to the 22nd (9.7)

6.1C to the 23rd (10.5)

6.1C to the 24th (5.7)

6.0C to the 25th (4.3)

 

A slightly less mild outlook today, though still carrying temps to well above normal. Provided we are on 6.0C on the 25th, the final 6 days would need to average -1.2C to get back to the 81-10 average of 4.6C, so not impossible, but very unlikely. The best estimate for the finishing range at this stage is maybe 5.3 to 6.3C. So the warmest year on record is all but guaranteed.

[TonyH]

That figure for the 18th is looking highly improbable. Although I'm at the extreme northern end of the CET zone the forecast high is 12C, so where a daily mean of 13C comes from I don't know. It surely can't be that much warmer further south, can it?

 

A very mild day, no doubt, but I'll eat my hat if it's as warm as the 12z GFS parallel suggests.

Looks like it was a pretty good estimate! Max 15c in places today after minima widely above 11c.

Edited December 18, 2014 by TonyH

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield now at 5c another big bump today. The lack of any low night temps Friday night and Saturday night could actually mean a slight increase on Fridays figure or no change. It certainly looks a plus 5C is a cert right now. 

[Weather26]

Last Christmas wasn't mild, infact some places had a hint of wintriness on Christmas Eve.

And Christmas Night last year was one of the frostiest of the whole of last winter if i remember rightly.

Edited December 18, 2014 by Weather26

[The PIT]

And Christmas Night last year was one of the frostiest of the whole of last winter if i remember rightly.

That didn't take much. Just a  ground frost here.

[TonyH]

Pretty sure it will end up above 6c now (my 4c guess way out)!

[Lettucing Gutted]

Pretty sure it will end up above 6c now (my 4c guess way out)!

and it won't take much on top of that for 2014 to reach and breach the dreaded 11C.  All this with a cold August.  It's frightening to think that if those warm/hot August forecasts had come off along with only a few record breaking CETs (like in 2006), we would be staring down the barrel of a 12C-13C year.

Edited December 19, 2014 by Craig Evans

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 18th

 

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

[Captain Shortwave]

Pretty sure it will end up above 6c now (my 4c guess way out)!

The question is how close will we to last year (6.3C). Given the highly positive background signals for this winter, it would be pretty shocking to top last year in terms of mildness.

[TonyH]

The question is how close will we to last year (6.3C). Given the highly positive background signals for this winter, it would be pretty shocking to top last year in terms of mildness.

Lets just hope January is below average then :smiliz21:

[Summer Sun]

Finally updated

 

5.5c to the 19th

 

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited December 20, 2014 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

5.6C to the 20th

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

Yesterday was 6.8C. The minimum today is 5.0C while maxima were around 12C, so an increase to 5.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

5.9C to the 22nd (10.0)

6.1C to the 23rd (10.9) [Daily record: 11.8C]

6.1C to the 24th (5.1)

6.0C to the 25th (3.8]

5.9C to the 26th (3.5)

5.9C to the 27th (4.9)

5.7C to the 28th (2.2)

 

A strong cooling trend in the coming week, but too little too late to prevent another above average month it seems.

 

A likely finish of 5.0C to 6.0C before corrections I'd say.

[damianslaw]

Oh well thee was a good chance of a near average or slightly below average month, but it now looks like December will join the list of above average months we've had this year, 11 of them!

[The PIT]

Suddenly my 6c degrees doesn't look so silly now. Normally we have downgrades to the coldness so I may end up a lot closer than I expected.

[Timmytour]

Statistically speaking, if December's CET did finisih on or above 6C, this wouldn't bode too well for a cold ensuing couple of months.

On the 17 occasions in the last 100 years with such a December CET, you have to go back nearly thirty years to Feb 1986 and Jan 87 to to find months that are significantly below the average....predominantly the months are above the 1700 - 2014 average (only 3 Jans in total and 7 Febs are below)

That said, the previous occasion we got cold months of any note after such a December was following the December of 1954...more of less thirty years again. so perhaps we might be in some kind of 30 year cycle thing

Edited December 22, 2014 by Timmytour

[Summer Sun]

5.7C to the 21st

 

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.5C big jump too probably 5.8c tomorrow. A slow drop afterwards. Final figure around 5.5c I reckon.

[Summer Sun]

5.9C to the 22nd

 

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 10.4C, while maxima look like climbing a little over 12C, so an increase to 6.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at:

6.2C to the 24th (6.5)

6.2C to the 25th (5.5)

6.1C to the 26th (4.4)

6.0C to the 27th (4.6)

6.0C to the 28th (4.8]

5.8C to the 29th (1.9]

5.7C to the 30th (2.5)

5.7C to the 31st (4.2)

 

Seems likely that a finish of between 5.5 and 6.2C is likely before corrections, then 5.1 to 6.2C after corrections.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield now 5.8C and another big rise tomorrow as well. Latest GFS has knocked back the cold by the large amount. Temps xmas eve night staying well up and xmas day just on above normal. So possible increase xmas eve/no change though more likley and no change for xmas. Boxing day has mild air moving in so could actually register another slight rise.

[Don]

The minimum today is 10.4C, while maxima look like climbing a little over 12C, so an increase to 6.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS parallel has the CET at:

6.2C to the 24th (6.5)

6.2C to the 25th (5.5)

6.1C to the 26th (4.4)

6.0C to the 27th (4.6)

6.0C to the 28th (4.8]

5.8C to the 29th (1.9]

5.7C to the 30th (2.5)

5.7C to the 31st (4.2)

 

Seems likely that a finish of between 5.5 and 6.2C is likely before corrections, then 5.1 to 6.2C after corrections.

My 5.2C could be in with a shout now.

[Roger J Smith]

Would say so, Don, as ECM would give about that for a finishing value (more anticyclonic and would lower 29th-31st from GFS estimates). ECM is your friend for that 5.2 to verify. I pretty much need the Sun to go dark at noon tomorrow and stay that way until 1st of January (would say longer to get a nice cold January but don't want to be a total psychopath).