Winter 2014-15 thread

[March Blizzard]

Haven't noticed it being that sunny here either. The beginning of this month started off sunny but was then followed by at least a week of no sun whatsoever.

Yeah, early February was quite sunny, but December and January seemed quite wet to me overall.

[Snowyowl9]

More cloud in the west.

[J10]

More cloud in the west.

 

But still sunnier than average for most and much better than last year.

Edited February 27, 2015 by J10

[Snowyowl9]

But still sunnier than average for most and much better than last year.

And much better than those infamous late 80`s

[North-Easterly Blast]

Looks as though the warm September = mild winter theory has not failed this year.  It is certainly a true fact of the British climate that a warm September is almost always followed by a milder than average winter, or at the very least a close to average one, with virtually no chance of a colder than average winter after a warm September.  I certainly think that, and this winter is no exception, that a warm September does reduce the chance of cold weather in the following winter.  On the other hand, I do not think that an average or cool September has any bearing on the following winter, compared to there appearing to be a link between a warm September and the winter that follows. 

 

With respect to colder winter weather, a warm September is in my opinion not what you want to see.

Edited February 28, 2015 by North-Easterly Blast

[MP-R]

Looks as though the warm September = mild winter theory has not failed this year.  It is certainly a true fact of the British climate that a warm September is almost always followed by a milder than average winter, or at the very least a close to average one, with virtually no chance of a colder than average winter after a warm September.  I certainly think that, and this winter is no exception, that a warm September does reduce the chance of cold weather in the following winter.  On the other hand, I do not think that an average or cool September has any bearing on the following winter, compared to there appearing to be a link between a warm September and the winter that follows. 

 

With respect to colder winter weather, a warm September is in my opinion not what you want to see.

 

Quite right. And as we know the cool wet September 2013 led onto the milder winter of 2013/2014. However one exception would have to be 2009 - September was warm and unusually dry and then we all know what happened. I think as much attention should be paid to November - very Atlantic-dominated Novembers, particularly with a more southerly tracking jet, can often be precursors to colder than normal winters or at least winters that are favourable for cold spells and snow e.g. 2000, 2009, 2012.

[Thunderbolt_]

Well, another winter done and dusted, and I have to say that it has been a fairly decent one overall. I've seen falling snow in all three winter months (most likely March too, by the looks of the forecasts) and I've had a decent amount of frosts. 28 January also brought my second witnessing to thundersnow. To add to that there's been four ice days here and some freezing fog.

 

Not a bad winter overall! I'll give it 5½ out of 10! Much better than last year's sorry attempt.

Edited February 28, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Weather-history]

Looks as though the warm September = mild winter theory has not failed this year. It is certainly a true fact of the British climate that a warm September is almost always followed by a milder than average winter, or at the very least a close to average one, with virtually no chance of a colder than average winter after a warm September. I certainly think that, and this winter is no exception, that a warm September does reduce the chance of cold weather in the following winter. On the other hand, I do not think that an average or cool September has any bearing on the following winter, compared to there appearing to be a link between a warm September and the winter that follows.

With respect to colder winter weather, a warm September is in my opinion not what you want to see.

Explain why a specific 30 day period would have an effect on a specific 90 day period in a calendar with both periods separated by exactly 61 days? Edited February 28, 2015 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

3 days when snow fell this winter all came in January and left a temporary covering no covering lasted more than 12 hours; Sunday 18th, Wednesday 28th, Thursday 29th

 

All in all a very sunny winter for this part of the UK well up on normal

 

Does anyone know where the below maps on the met office site can be found its not easy on this new site

 

Edited February 28, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Carl46Wrexham]

Better winter than its predecessor - had it not been then mass emigration could have been on the cards.

Overall however, for this neck of the woods, it has been pretty disappointing. None of the polar maritime shots had any teeth. Only one snowfall of any significance on Boxing Day, which was the slushy type that froze solid, meaning a second winter in succession where it wasn't possible for my kids to make a snowman.

[marksp]

lets put the sunny winter into perspective.

checking the solar panel readings is quite interesting.

all readings taken from November to Feb 28th

SO Nov 12 to Feb 13 generated 360 units

Nov 13 to Feb 14 generated 340 units

Nov 14 to Feb 15 generated 363 units.

so nothing special here sunshine wise, when system can generate 20 to 40 units a week in Feb.

just routine fair.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly hasnt felt sunny, just felt like the average westerly dominated winter, i'm sure Atlantic air is becoming more dominant now than it ever used to be, especially winter, but even other times of the year

[Snowyowl9]

I don`t go by that warm September idea.

Edited February 28, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[Chris K]

3 days when snow fell this winter all came in January and left a temporary covering no covering lasted more than 12 hours; Sunday 18th, Wednesday 28th, Thursday 29th

 

All in all a very sunny winter for this part of the UK well up on normal

 

Does anyone know where the below maps on the met office site can be found its not easy on this new site

 

 

here you go! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts   Scroll down the bottom of the months for seasonal.

Edited February 28, 2015 by Chris K

[Summer Sun]

here you go! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts   Scroll down the bottom of the months for seasonal.

 

Thanks

[Peter H]

certainly hasnt felt sunny, just felt like the average westerly dominated winter, i'm sure Atlantic air is becoming more dominant now than it ever used to be, especially winter, but even other times of the year

Didn't feel sunny here either and a pretty poor one for cold lovers, although there was a good snow event in the west of the province late January, but nothing here in the east of Northern Ireland.

What has been pretty bad this winter is the conditions over most of Europe, even Scandinavia. Little or now snow here either,even in the east.

I'm really getting fed up with this type of winter and forecasters going on and on about the jet stream along with severe cold in the US. I really do wish it would change.

Still, I'll bet Net weather wished they hadn't said it would be a "cold hearted winter". It was anything but.

So goodbye winter 2014/15. Here's hoping winter 2015/16 will deliver something at least a bit better.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 197

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2010-11: 119

2008-09: 105

2012-13: 102

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

2013-14: 7

[North-Easterly Blast]

Quite right. And as we know the cool wet September 2013 led onto the milder winter of 2013/2014. However one exception would have to be 2009 - September was warm and unusually dry and then we all know what happened. I think as much attention should be paid to November - very Atlantic-dominated Novembers, particularly with a more southerly tracking jet, can often be precursors to colder than normal winters or at least winters that are favourable for cold spells and snow e.g. 2000, 2009, 2012.

 

 

Explain why a specific 30 day period would have an effect on a specific 90 day period in a calendar with both periods separated by exactly 61 days?

September 2013 wasn't cool, it was average. 

 

By the September link I am trying to say is that I do not believe that there is any trend or link as to the sort of winter that we see after an average or cool September, but there certainly appears to be a bit of a link that a warm September is almost always followed by a milder than average winter, or at the very least close to average.  It only appears that a warm September has a bearing on the following winter, and this link only works with warm Septembers.  After a warm September I would always put my money on the following winter at least not being a brilliant winter for cold setups.

 

With respect to September 2009, it had a CET of 14.2, (0.5 to 0.6*C warmer than the long term average), which although on the warm side, it was not extraordinarily so.  (it wasn't as warm as Sep 2014, 2011, 2006, 2005, 2004 etc).  So saying that the link didn't work so well in Sep 2009 is stretching it a bit.

[Evening thunder]

But still sunnier than average for most and much better than last year.

 

Interestingly last winter was quite sunny too for much of England despite being the wettest winter on record.

 

Just shows that Atlantic weather doesn't necessarily equal dull/grey weather. 

This years high sunshine is thanks mainly to Atlantic PM flows.

 

 

As for September and the following winter, there are various supposed links probably due mainly to the the random/coincidental nature of statistics. There may be something to some of them, though if there is I doubt they are fail-proof. For September it could be that warmer Septembers are more likely to occur in warmer periods anyway and leave sea temperatures higher, though that could be overridden easily given the right synoptics.

 

Another interesting stat is the wettest Spring on record (1947) was also followed by the sunniest spring on record (1948)

[MP-R]

September 2013 wasn't cool, it was average. 

 

By the September link I am trying to say is that I do not believe that there is any trend or link as to the sort of winter that we see after an average or cool September, but there certainly appears to be a bit of a link that a warm September is almost always followed by a milder than average winter, or at the very least close to average.  It only appears that a warm September has a bearing on the following winter, and this link only works with warm Septembers.  After a warm September I would always put my money on the following winter at least not being a brilliant winter for cold setups.

 

With respect to September 2009, it had a CET of 14.2, (0.5 to 0.6*C warmer than the long term average), which although on the warm side, it was not extraordinarily so.  (it wasn't as warm as Sep 2014, 2011, 2006, 2005, 2004 etc).  So saying that the link didn't work so well in Sep 2009 is stretching it a bit.

 

Maybe nationally but here it was cooler than average, only the 2nd-5th were above average, the 13th-19th was below average and the rest turned out close to average thanks to mild nights. The lower than average maxima in these parts were probably not helped by the the fact it was often dull and wet.

[reef]

Interestingly last winter was quite sunny too for much of England despite being the wettest winter on record.

 

Just shows that Atlantic weather doesn't necessarily equal dull/grey weather. 

This years high sunshine is thanks mainly to Atlantic PM flows.

 

Winter 2013/14 was actually drier and sunnier than average here in the east. The effects of the Pennines and the shelter they provided were extreme. While areas to the west and south-west were affected by persistent flooding we managed 151mm (94%) all winter. As you mention it was sunnier than average too. In fact we've now just finished the fourth winter on the bounce here with above average sunshine. December 2014 was actually the 7th sunnier than average December in a row!

Edited March 1, 2015 by reef

[cheese]

Leeming, N Yorkshire finishes February with 97 hours of sun - not a record by any stretch, but very sunny nonetheless.

 

Leconfield, E Yorkshire finished on 104.

[reef]

Leeming, N Yorkshire finishes February with 97 hours of sun - not a record by any stretch, but very sunny nonetheless.

 

Leconfield, E Yorkshire finished on 104.

Very sunny overall here:

 

December: 91hrs (175%)

January: 91hrs  (160%)

February: 108hrs (135%)

 

December and January were sunniest on record, February the second sunniest after 2008 on 124hrs.

[cheese]

Leeming:

December: 82.6
January: 67.0
February: 97.2

Total: 246.8

[J10]

Interestingly last winter was quite sunny too for much of England despite being the wettest winter on record.

 

Just shows that Atlantic weather doesn't necessarily equal dull/grey weather. 

This years high sunshine is thanks mainly to Atlantic PM flows.

 

 

As for September and the following winter, there are various supposed links probably due mainly to the the random/coincidental nature of statistics. There may be something to some of them, though if there is I doubt they are fail-proof. For September it could be that warmer Septembers are more likely to occur in warmer periods anyway and leave sea temperatures higher, though that could be overridden easily given the right synoptics.

 

Another interesting stat is the wettest Spring on record (1947) was also followed by the sunniest spring on record (1948)

 

 

Last year generally was good for sunshine both locally (across Wales) and over much of Southern England.