Possible Winter Storm December 27th

[stubbys]

Hi and please delete if inaccurate or not appropriate, I'm very new to this.

Looks like quite a nasty low for Scotland and the north over Christmas eve and Christmas day, I appreciate it's a long way out, but might cause some disruption.

And some brief widespread cold a few days later?

[Steve C]

Hi and please delete if inaccurate or not appropriate, I'm very new to this.

Looks like quite a nasty low for Scotland and the north over Christmas eve and Christmas day, I appreciate it's a long way out, but might cause some disruption.

And some brief widespread cold a few days later?

 

I'd be more concerned about the depth and track of the low with regards to spring tides tbh. The high spring tides (rather than low springs, two weeks later) follow the New Moon currently and peak on Christmas Eve. Mind you, the spring tides centred on 23rd January and 21st/22nd February are even higher...

 

We also have the highest naturally occurring tide in 25 years on 30th September next year, but hopefully the chances of coinciding with a major storm are much reduced at that time.

[stubbys]

Am I right in thinking the sea bulges or lifts under a low pressure system as it doesn't have as much weight/density above it in the air?

[Backtrack]

Hi and please delete if inaccurate or not appropriate, I'm very new to this.

Looks like quite a nasty low for Scotland and the north over Christmas eve and Christmas day, I appreciate it's a long way out, but might cause some disruption.

And some brief widespread cold a few days later?

 

The low has been removed on today's 12z

[Steve C]

Am I right in thinking the sea bulges or lifts under a low pressure system as it doesn't have as much weight/density above it in the air?

 

Yes it does, as per this Met Office link.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/storm-surge

 

As Backtrack has pointed out though, there doesn't seem to be an issue currently for next week.

Edited December 18, 2014 by Steve C

[Steve C]

I'm (slightly) uncomfortable with the way the ECM model is evolving for the relevant period. I don't like seeing low pressure moving from Iceland towards Denmark, as if a low pressure deepens in the wrong place, then this could spell trouble. The latest run has a filling feature by the time it reaches the North Sea, so on the face of it, not a problem, but I'll be happier when it shows this in the more reliable time-frame.

 

Not really relevant for this thread, but I downloaded the (underlying naturally occurring Sun / Moon - not storm influenced) tide heights for my nearest location for late Jan / early Feb 1953. As is known generally, there was a major storm surge overnight on 31st January. It is also known that this corresponded with a spring tide. What I didn't realise until today, but did, as soon as I saw the actual figures, was that this was a 'low spring' tide, rather than a 'high spring' tide. I think the sea level has risen naturally by about 10cms since 1953, but still, the figures here are very low for a spring tide in my locality - I quite avidly watch the figures. To prove the point, I downloaded the figures for a couple of weeks later and the difference with this 'high spring' is pronounced. I'd guess that a third of the underlying tides in Winter are at least as high as the 1953 problem tide. I found that somewhat sobering...  

 

1953.pdfFeb53.pdf

 

I'll also attach tide heights for my locality for the next week and the 'high spring' tide weeks in January and February 2015 for comparison.

 

Pre Xmas.pdfJan15.pdfFeb15.pdf

 

 

 

 

[claret047]

Steve,

 

Have you read the book The Great Tide written by Hilda Grieve on behalf of Essex County Council. It is a tremendous if rather lengthy read on the build up, the storm itself and the aftermath? Well worth a read if you are able to get hold of it.

 

Kind Regards

 

Dave

[Steve C]

Cheers Dave, I'll look our for it.

[stubbys]

Granted, not much happening Xmas eve or Christmas day. ButBute latest run looks interesting for the 27th and still with high tides.

[stubbys]

What a peach this would be, only this and the parallel are showing it, the ecm has one north and far less intense. The channel would act like a bottle neck for any storm surge, not to mention the winds.

[picog]

What a peach this would be, only this and the parallel are showing it, the ecm has one north and far less intense. The channel would act like a bottle neck for any storm surge, not to mention the winds.

Probably pretty snowy down the eastern side of the UK too. Not sure if it would be snow further west.

[Liam J]

Plenty of twists and turns to come over the coming days, not many of the 6z ensembles (4 or 5 out of 20) go for a significant feature affecting the UK. ECM not showing anything out of the ordinary either. Modelling all over the place atm, what they cook up next is anyone's guess! 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Liam J

[knocker]

The fax chart issued last night for Xmas day. All quiet on the western front but. Both the GFS and GFS (P) this morning have the low developing 00z Friday in mid Atlantic and moving rapidly ENE and the P has it NW of Ireland 1000mb by 12z Friday  Then explosive cyclogenesis as it moves across N. Scotland into the North Sea and then turns south. By 12z Saturday it's down to 960mb. Not a scenario we want to verify.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited December 21, 2014 by knocker

[Supacell]

A potent winter storm has now been showing on some of the models for the 27th/28th for quite a few runs. It is a way to go but this could end up bringing some severe weather for just after Christmas. Whether the storm develops as forecast, then (if it does) where it tracks will be the factor as to if there will be severe weather and of what form it will be.

 

I am now watching this one, it could produce torrential rains, very strong winds and possibly even low level snow. The concern for me is the potential for a brief but very strong N'ly blast as the storm moves off to the east and develops, this scenario has lead to problems with tidal surges and coastal flooding in the past and has the hallmarks of doing the same again should it come off as some models are showing. Eastern coasts currently at highest risk of impact from this.

Edited December 21, 2014 by Supacell

[tinybill]

A potent winter storm has now been showing on some of the models for the 27th/28th for quite a few runs. It is a way to go but this could end up bringing some severe weather for just after Christmas. Whether the storm develops as forecast, then (if it does) where it tracks will be the factor as to if there will be severe weather and of what form it will be.

 

I am now watching this one, it could produce torrential rains, very strong winds and possibly even low level snow. The concern for me is the potential for a brief but very strong N'ly blast as the storm moves off to the east and develops, this scenario has lead to problems with tidal surges and coastal flooding in the past and has the hallmarks of doing the same again should it come off as some models are showing. Eastern coasts currently at highest risk of impact from this.

likewise  we all know  what happen  on the east coast  last year  when a big storm up in Scotland and the tidal surge hit the east coast  mass flooding   need to keep a eye on this storm

[knocker]

Further to my earlier post the ECM is going for a different solution which doesn't involve cyclogenesis and the North Sea although does include severe weather. Basically deep low Iceland 12z Saturday moving SE to establish a complex low pressure area 967mb over the UK by 06Z Sunday. At this range this all subject to change but obviously requires close watching for the next three days.

[alexisj9]

Further to my earlier post the ECM is going for a different solution which doesn't involve cyclogenesis and the North Sea although does include severe weather. Basically deep low Iceland 12z Saturday moving SE to establish a complex low pressure area 967mb over the UK by 06Z Sunday. At this range this all subject to change but obviously requires close watching for the next three days.

I prefer the slower evolution of the ECM simply because it gets into the north sea a few days later, and weaker, which would hopefully be less of a problem to the east coast, but it does mean the strong winds and rain will be over the UK for longer.

[Steve C]

I think the ECM solution means no flooding and the GFS a flooding issue. It'd be nice to see cross model consensus soon (and towards the ECM solution) People might need to make plans, especially with lots travelling away for Christmas. Although the peak of the spring tides will have passed by then, there will still be a reasonably high tide by next Saturday (a bit lower on Sunday 28th)

[Steve C]

The UKMO model is troubling too. A definite 'weather bomb' showing. From a large high pressure on 26th to an explosive low a day later. The UKMO solution might not be so bad for North Sea coasts as the GFS and Parallel, as it delays the onset, when tides are decreasing, but it might be worse for land areas.

 

 

 

 

[picog]

The UKMO model is troubling too. A definite 'weather bomb' showing. From a large high pressure on 26th to an explosive low a day later. The UKMO solution might not be so bad for North Sea coasts as the GFS and Parallel, as it delays the onset, when tides are decreasing, but it might be worse for land areas.

UW120-21.gifUW144-21.gif

The top half of Ireland would be blown away if that came off! Edited December 21, 2014 by picog

[vladthemert]

Glad this has time to change as if this did come off it would make 1953 walk in the park.   This has to shift and weaken else the Effected east coast going get very bad flooding even with modern sea defences.   At what level does the government need to take action to save lives if verified.

 

[Sainsbo]

Definitely one to watch, most of the models do seem to be showing a low "bombing" out as it crosses/comes near to the UK, but there doesn't seem to be much agreement on when that happens, or how much it deepens (Which is to be expected when we're still 6 days away from this potential storm).

 

I wouldn't get too worried just yet, plenty can change in 6 days. At least it makes for interesting model watching in the run up to christmas

[vladthemert]

Aye Sainsbro plenty time for things to change.  :smiliz19:

 

Magic seaweed has the swell at 24ft at peak

Edited December 21, 2014 by vladthemert

[radiohead]

[Liam J]

Still a lot of water to pass under the bridge before we get to next weekend but confidence is certainly growing for potentially quite a severe weather event around the 27th, of which the possible wind strength is the main concern atm with some models indicating very rapid cyclogenesis taking place (bombogenesis). Detail will likely change around over the next few days regarding the track and depth of this system but it could have serious impacts especially at this time of year when many people will be travelling over the Christmas period, add in the potential for snow as well coupled with severe gales and you have a recipe for a very significant weather event. 

 

GFS(P) showing gusts to 150km/h+ which is over 90mph! 

 

Edited December 21, 2014 by Liam J