Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Dancerwithwings]

Blizzards by day 9 on GFSP for the whole of the UK.

Wouldn't what to hang around to watch them Blizzards, looking at the chart below i don't think i would have much choice in the matter

 

Edited January 5, 2015 by Dancerwithwings

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18hrs run amplifies the ridge into Alaska more than the GFS P, this results in a re-run of late December.

 

Still issues with phasing of the trough and low pressure exiting the southern USA, the GFS P is less amplified but not without interest.

[fergieweather]

The new GFS still has the older brothers tricks up it's sleeve

Bye bye UK with a classic dart board low special.

Dubious snow predictions too.

GFS op goes for a UK/Northern Euro high bringing settled and frosty weather.

EC-EPS, however, also yields similar signal for some deep lows during same timeframe. Nothing can be discounted at this juncture re potential for stormy conditions. Edited January 5, 2015 by fergieweather

[Daniel*]

Concerning just look at them isobars really packed would cause widespread damage

Accompanied with Blizzards well that is a "Monster". I see snow opportunities arising by these deep lows.

[marksiwnc]

EC-EPS, however, also yields similar signal for some deep lows during same timeframe. Nothing can be discounted at this juncture re potential for stormy conditions.

Is this.storm.similar to the boxing day one ian?? That one was supposed to be leashing gales or severe gales and also the likelihood of snow?? Looks the.same

[Eugene]

Concerning just look at them isobars really packed would cause widespread damage

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

Accompanied with Blizzards well that is a "Monster". I see snow opportunities arising by these deep lows.

 

That has zero chance of verifying, ludicrous parallel, been

[Daniel*]

That has zero chance of verifying, ludicrous parallel, been

I would never say no chance, as fergie has pointed out such deep lows have support. This cannot be simply ignored.

[john mac]

I would never say no chance, as fergie has pointed out such deep lows have support. This cannot be simply ignored.

Totally agree but until it's in the reliable timeframe then nothing to worry about. Definitely worth keeping an eye on though!

[bobbydog]

Is this.storm.similar to the boxing day one ian?? That one was supposed to be leashing gales or severe gales and also the likelihood of snow?? Looks the.same

at that range its just a hint at what might happen, as i'm sure ian would tell you

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe - very unsettled with alternating tropical maritime/returning polar maritime airstreams, which has been the theme of the winter so far, different to last year when we were just locked in tropical maritime airstream, but also under a much stronger Jetstream. However, the jet looks to be revving into full gear thanks to the major temperature gradients setting up over the western atlantic just off eastern USA seaboard - look at the closeness of sub 510 dam air and 548 dam air, no wonder the jet is about to go into turbo charge with such deep cold clashing with anamolous warmth.

 

As we head towards middle of January, the models show a continuation of generally unsettled weather but with important differences - a more buckled jet, greater amplification and hence a situation which would enable mid atlantic heights to form, indeed reminiscent of early-mid December - it looks quite cyclonic and generally cooler especially in the north.

 

Overall typical January weather.

[Daniel*]

Totally agree but until it's in the reliable timeframe then nothing to worry about. Definitely worth keeping an eye on though!

Forgive me for getting carried away I do not expect the charts as above to verify exact - but at this precise time there really is the right ingrediants for rapid cyclogenesis, to occur with the sharp contrast of warm moist air & bitter artic sourced air & the Jet Stream rather potent, right over the the UK - conditions then become favourable, with SST warm for the time of year it may enhance the durability, of such deep LP systems. I wouldn't say nothing to worry about, I bet the met folks are following developments closely.

[stratty]

Concerning just look at them isobars really packed would cause widespread damage

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

Accompanied with Blizzards well that is a "Monster". I see snow opportunities arising by these deep lows.

.............a number of nasty looking LPs around us (some on top!) from the ensemble members too around this date!

 

+ some crackers if you are looking for some cold eye candy!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=360&mode=1&carte=0  

Edited January 5, 2015 by stratty

[Mair Snaw]

That has zero chance of verifying, ludicrous parallel, been

It has a much chance of verifying as a Greenland high or a Spanish plume at the same time frame....this is the model output thread and the charts are model output.. verifying or not has nothing to do with it... its there in the output...

[Woollymummy]

I was right, gales! We can blame the heat wave in Alaska which is spooling the Arctic air round the US, to give us more jet fun and games. I find actual gales more exciting than possible snow.

[SE Blizzards]

A STEVE MURR ENSEMBLE.....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1

 

 

 

 

Probably the best set of London ENS to date. Some very cold runs starting to appear now in FI.

 

 

Northern England 2m temps....

 

 

Brrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!

Edited January 6, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Mucka]

Still enough wintry solutions in the ensembles to keep us interested.

 

 

 

And as mentioned earlier if the first ridge fails quite a few attempt another quickly after giving a second chance.

 

 

 

So although the Atlantic still looks favourite there is still a signal for an Atlantic ridge to attempt to build and the possibility of some colder weather.

 

Also just a word on 8-14 day anomaly charts.

Any first attempt ridge is scheduled for around day 11/12 so we have at least 3 days of the 6 in the anomaly charts where the signal will be diluted and then we have to consider that perhaps 50% of the runs go for a ridge so then it can be diluted further.

If there were a signal to pick up it would currently be very weak on those charts anyway but if there is anything to this ridge it should appear to strengthen in the next couple of days but in actuality it is more likely the useless data will just be being filtered out.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Mucka

[Timmytour]

The stormy weather being modelled for next weekend reminds me of this time last week when there was a potent storm modelled for this coming weekend.

that's not going to verify is it?

[Mucka]

Good morning.

 

Seems this mornings output wants to phase the second low with the first over next weekend which will lessen the chances of snow to low levels in the North somewhat.

 

 

 

This was always a possibility as these troughs tend to get corrected North rather than South and it was only a transient shot anyway. (maybe now it will go back the other way   )

Still should be some wintriness in the showers so long as it doesn't flatten any more.

 

The Op is pretty rubbish actually. Mild Southwesterlies lead us into FI and then we get a deep low and wind and rain and then a toppling ridge,

 

 

Parallel has a colder flow.

 

 

But no sign of an Atlantic ridge or cold in FI.

 

 

GEM no use either but at least it would be mild

 

Edited January 6, 2015 by Mucka

[winterof79]

??? Confused Mucka.

Will post charts when I get home.GFS looks cold in FI again with recurring theme of block near by.Lets have a look at GEFS.

[chicken soup]

Ecm looks cold on saturday to my untrained eye....minus -8 uppers surely cold enough for snow.

[Captain Shortwave]

??? Confused Mucka.

Will post charts when I get home.GFS looks cold in FI again with recurring theme of block near by.Lets have a look at GEFS.

The parallel and control runs offers nothing beyond this Saturday into Sunday. The ensembles are still mixed but with more members going for non-cold solutions.

As the post above suggests, this weekend might be a good one for the west to fill their proverbial boots

[knocker]

Canadian Arctic air --> UK takes about 2-days pic.twitter.com/t93MSlpweH

ECMWF global model improved its 5-day skill scores between 2013 and 2014 ... GFS did not. Therefore, skill gap between models increased.

 

Global weather model skill scores: 500-hPa Z NHEMI

 

2014: ECMWF: 0.905 --- GFS: 0.875

 

2013: ECMWF: 0.904 ---- GFS: 0.880

[winterof79]

The parallel and control runs offers nothing beyond this Saturday into Sunday. The ensembles are still mixed but with more members going for non-cold solutions.

As the post above suggests, this weekend might be a good one for the west to fill their proverbial boots

Agreed.Showers will push well inland according to present output.They do penetrate through in to West Yorkshire easily in these set-ups.Short lived but better than mild for me.

[knocker]

Main points with the P this morning out to T384

 

It's dropping the mid Atlantic ridge and going with the familiar story of depressions west - east across the north with HP to the south. Temps quite variable but generally above average in the south. The notable point is it does disrupt the jet after day ten.

 

Run the sequence

http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_t1534_global.php

 

Daddy GFS showing above average temps in the next eight days.

Chart courtesy weatherbell.

 

Edited January 6, 2015 by knocker

[Jason M]

Increasing number of GEFS now staying zonal all the way out to the end of FI. GEM ensembles still saying no.

Beginning to look like the classic GFS tease. Ie Greenland heights, amended to scandi heights, amended to classic euro high nearer the time. We appear to be moving towards the end of stage 2 this morning :-(

One plus point is that the few better runs are still moving forward through the timescales, so before much longer it will be put up or shut up time!

Just my opinion of course and it's all FI so can flip back and forth, but the trend is not our friend this morning and it just builds on yesterday evenings outputs to my mind.