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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

Paul

By Paul
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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted

Lack of comments on the 12z GFS p an op as there both shocking and do look like 1957!...pony

 

And yet that's in the deepest FI possible,Yes it is a mild chart but the next run will most likely change into something else.

 

Also I haven't got a clue what's up with the forum today everyone seems to be upset over the models lately just because of FI.

 

Next week we got a storm to cope with some added snow in it but really it going to get colder.

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

I am going to miss the GFS op from next Wednesday. The P will take over. Just highlighting the differences they make for Tuesday's snow:

 

attachicon.gifgfs-2-78-3.pngattachicon.gifgfs-2-78-2.png

 

Two fronts moving across the south. The GFS P has has snow from the second front where as the GFS op has backend snow.

Yes but GFS won't resolve that detail well, certainly not at this range (GFS snowfall accumulation modelling way too coarse and often best ignored!). The fiddly potential wave development on the frontal clearance from Monday - itself subject to timing errors - is then compounded into Tuesday by variable handling of the showery troughs following in deep cold environment. Either way, 4km modelling remains steadfast in the southern England snow issue being largely one focused for the SW (moors, plus consistent signal across Mendips plateau) with some sleet or wet snow even to low levels in parts of W Country late Tuesday. A few wintry showers expected to penetrate across towards eastern England, but scarcer here.

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seaside 60 Community Regular

seaside 60

Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
Posted

Below average 2m temperature anomaly the vast majority of the UK over the next 8 days

 

gfsanom_eu.png

 

Normal 2m temps left, expected 2m temps right

 

The most amazing thing about this chart is how much of Europe is above average......
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

GFS Op and GFSp pretty poor for any sustained cold it has to be said with Azores high being the main player.

Hopefully there will be some much better FI solutions among the ensembles.

 

 

It has been the trend from the GEFS to bring in more TM shots and ties in with the UKMO update of milder spells for the next two weeks. We have had this entrenched pattern for about 6 weeks so no reason to suspect a change till maybe early Feb when the Minor SSW may effect the trop?

 

GEM's take on the storm: post-14819-0-46209600-1420910242_thumb.p

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Lack of comments on the 12z GFS p an op as there both shocking and do look like 1957!...pony

 

Maybe...but that is at T+384...unlikely to verify equally as much as if it was showing snowy weather.

 

The Azores high starts to get flatter over next week and it isn't until after a forecast northerly toppler (a week away...) that it ends up with the chart you posted above.

 

I think we need to see where we are going with next weeks storm before worrying about anything after! And I don't mean 'going' as in getting the country thrown into the continent from the strong winds  :laugh:

 

post-15172-0-02798100-1420910223_thumb.p

 

post-15172-0-26091900-1420910222_thumb.p

 

post-15172-0-65465200-1420910222_thumb.p

Edited by Chris K
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Winter Cold Seasoned

Winter Cold

Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
Posted

Its just nice that you can finaly mention the S word for people further down south Ian. Its been a long time coming. Good luck to you all down there who wants some snow next week, I hope you at least see it falling! :)

 

Im not worried about what GFS shows at the end, and still plenty of cold 850s shown next week. Im looking forward to the ECM later, lets see what its latest take on the storm is for Wednesday and if we can still get some deep blue 850 charts too in the mix :cold:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Snow in the SE on Tuesday according to GFS 12z op run.. Steve Murr will love that :-)

post-4783-0-78402700-1420910512_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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seaside 60 Community Regular

seaside 60

Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
Posted

Snow in the SE on Tuesday according to GFS 12z op run.. Steve Murr will love that :-)

Blink and you will miss it.

Guaranteed thats only over the downs, and as Ian says GFS snow forecast is worthless and even more so next week as it wont exsist...

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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

Snow in the SE on Tuesday according to GFS 12z op run.. Steve Murr will love that :-)

Looks a bit sketchy frosty it does show a snow event for the se but it's blue with a blob of red in the middle looks a bit suspect.

Anyway negative posts again but the storm systems and weather were due to get next week says on thing to me !

It says not nailed weather patterns ,

why because the track of low pressure systems are subject to changes plus possibility of secondary depressions forming.

So plenty of flip flopping to come

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Blink and you will miss it.

Guaranteed thats only over the downs, and as Ian says GFS snow forecast is worthless and even more so next week as it wont exsist...

Surely if its worthless it can't be guaranteed ???

 

At this short range there must be some chance of verification..........................do you think?

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Blink and you will miss it.

Guaranteed thats only over the downs, and as Ian says GFS snow forecast is worthless and even more so next week as it wont exsist...

Well I think it's possible we will see surprise snow next week as cold air keeps digging SE and fronts across the southeast stall for a time but in any case, towards the end of next week looks cold with snow showers and frosty nights / morning's.

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stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Popular Post
Posted

Sorry...where is your back yard?

Banbury at a guess?! lol

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

GFS P and GEM look complicated with a shortwave ejecting off the upstream low as it amplifies, that could easily go wrong.

 

The GFS develops a less stressful ridging Azores high with short northerly then topple, the UKMO is much weaker in terms of upstream lows and out into the Atlantic at T144hrs.

 

The problem in terms of what the outlook might be for next weekend is the lack of clarity upstream, this effects any ridge development to the west of the UK.

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kev238 Enthusiast

kev238

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted

Confidence must be high that there will be a significant winter storm hitting large parts of the uk on Wednesday / Thursday.

The exact track is still to be determined but it looks likely to deliver gales and severe gales widely with the potential for something a little more extreme in some areas

The met office must be watching this closely and it wouldn't surprise me if they issued a yellow nationwide warning in next 24-36 hours just to start warning of potential of this event.

After the Storm has passed there looks like being a brief colder period but then the form horse must be a return to a toned down version of that we face now. The charts at 384 are pretty vile - if they verified then that would be a bad sign. However, at that range we know to take them with a pinch of salt.

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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
Posted (edited)

12Z ENS 2M Temps Northern England.

 

One word, Cold!

 

graphe6_1000___-2.547169811320753_55.020

 

Getting close to ice day material there on the 17th. Also the Op was a fairly wild mild outlier once again in FI. No real surprise there.

 

850 temps also cold, with a cold cluster towards the end.

 

graphe3_1000___-2.7358490566037723_55.26

 

Looking closer at the ENS in detail there is plenty there to keep cold lovers more than interested.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384

Edited by SE Blizzards
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Well gfs once again shows snow for the midlands Tuesday but fergie has just mentioned its probably over doing it and will be confined to the south west!! Guess we can skip that aswell now!!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

It's always nice to see a Northerly in winter, no matter how brief. I hope there is still a chance of this being upgraded,even if it isn't, this is not the end of it, with the jet aligned NW / SE it's highly likely we would get a second and third bite of the cherry and a long-lasting cold spell could be ours.

post-4783-0-40917600-1420913129_thumb.pn

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Well gfs once again shows snow for the midlands Tuesday but fergie has just mentioned its probably over doing it and will be confined to the south west!! Guess we can skip that aswell now!!

I said "*largely* one focused (to SW)" - ie aside from the stronger certainty in North. But specifically didn't say 'confined to'... just for clarity!!

NB I was referring only to southern England situation

Edited by fergieweather
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Fred Sykes Contributor

Fred Sykes

Posted
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)
  • Weather Preferences: what's the bloody point when you live in Britain
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)
  • Popular Post
Posted

I said "*largely* one focused (to SW)" - ie aside from the stronger certainty in North. But specifically didn't say 'confined to'... just for clarity!!

NB I was referring only to southern England situation

Ha, I think Fergie just gave you the hair dryer treatment!!
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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

Ha, I think Fergie just gave you the hair dryer treatment!!

Not intended! Just important to be clear on wording as all too often, things get misconstrued or misquoted on forecast detail.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

Not intended! Just important to be clear on wording as all too often, things get misconstrued or misquoted on forecast detail.

 

5cm possible lower levels north I would say.

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