Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[chionomaniac]

And gone by Thursday? SM would ignore that.

Chart weatherbell

But back by Friday/Saturday? Knocker would ignore that.(lol)

 

 

 

Chart Netweather.....

[nick sussex]

Not a bad ECM so far at T144hrs, the upstream low over Newfoundland will determine any cold for the UK next weekend. We need this to deepen rapidly at T168hrs and run ne to help promote the ridge to the west of the UK.

 

So we want those two small lows to phase and one deep low to run ne. Its a no go from the ECM, it splits them and too much energy goes east.

Edited January 10, 2015 by nick sussex

[Mucka]

JMA doesn't go with the storm  and has it track further South, any strong winds reserved for the far South. Could be snow on the Northern flank if it verified.

 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

It's always nice to see a Northerly in winter, no matter how brief. I hope there is still a chance of this being upgraded,even if it isn't, this is not the end of it, with the jet aligned NW / SE it's highly likely we would get a second and third bite of the cherry and a long-lasting cold spell could be ours.

I can't honestly remember the last time we have had a northerly in winter. Would certainly be a welcome change if that verified.

Edited January 10, 2015 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[shaky]

Not intended! Just important to be clear on wording as all too often, things get misconstrued or misquoted on forecast detail.

thanks for the reply fergie!! Latest ecm coming out looks cold!!

[MR EXTREMES]

But back by Friday/Saturday? Knocker would ignore that.(lol)

 

 

viewimage-4.png

 

Chart Netweather.....

Exactly what I was about to say!.

Anyway back to the models snow sleet wind rain mild for very brief periods alternating with cold.

Very intrigued to see if we could possibly just possibly squeeze a snow flake out of the sky.

Would be nice I'm expecting at least three days of wild swings with in the models but colder seems to be the theme

[Frosty.]

Please God..let us have P17 GEFS 12z..I promise to be good if you make this dream come true. :-)

[Barry12]

YEAH COLD IS THE THEME BASED ON THE ECM, GFS, UKMO - MILD WEATHER NO WHERE TO BE SEEN.

[nick sussex]

After a good start the ECM goes downhill at T168hrs, but you'll see from the upstream patterns across all the major models that theres differences at T144hrs and until these are resolved its difficult to know how cold next weekend might be.

[karyo]

After a good start the ECM goes downhill at T168hrs, but you'll see from the upstream patterns across all the major models that theres differences at T144hrs and until these are resolved its difficult to know how cold next weekend might be.

It's quite a downgrade from yesterday's 12z. All an all nothing particularly promising in the models tonight. Just the odd brief slushy event for the lucky few.

[Jimmyh]

Fergie what are your thoughts on the track and strength of the low so many different perturbations showing for Wed into Thursday. I am watching this one closely as has been progged for 8 days or so now. Gfs junior I think was first to pick up on it. I take it the chiefs are watching this closely

[Captain Shortwave]

After a good start the ECM goes downhill at T168hrs, but you'll see from the upstream patterns across all the major models that theres differences at T144hrs and until these are resolved its difficult to know how cold next weekend might be.

Well there is Monday (two days time)

 

The ECM pretty much nullifies any northerly for next weekend, just another polar maritime incursion before the westerlies push back in tonight.

Can only hope the low tracks south east from here through the UK and doesn't push the Azores high eastwards back into southern Europe again.

Again the model output suggests colder than average conditions for the north, but again southern areas look near normal, even in the colder periods. (5-7C generally and milder in the brief milder sectors)

Low heights detach from Greenland and start to move towards the UK, a bit better, but again can we get this into the reliable without the models developing another area of low heights over Greenland to flatten the pattern out again

Edited January 10, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Banbury]

After a good start the ECM goes downhill at T168hrs, but you'll see from the upstream patterns across all the major models that theres differences at T144hrs and until these are resolved its difficult to know how cold next weekend might be.

Oh I don't know the 192 looks as though the cool/cold NWly theme continues. We will see.

[Banbury]

It's quite a downgrade from yesterday's 12z. All an all nothing particularly promising in the models tonight. Just the odd brief slushy event for the lucky few.

Karyo, are you being serious, parts of the North and North West will end up with some decent coverings of snow. IMBY this is for sure going to be the coldest week for some time.

[Banbury]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011012/ECH0-216.GIF?10-0

 

Cold air continues to feed down from the NW

[Barry12]

It's quite a downgrade from yesterday's 12z. All an all nothing particularly promising in the models tonight. Just the odd brief slushy event for the lucky few.

 

KAYRO, I REMEMBER ON BOXING DAY YOU SAID THE SAME, SHEFFIELD ENDED UP GETTING 15CM WITH A COVERING LASTING ALL WEEK FOR MANY PARTS IN THE NORTH.

Edited January 10, 2015 by Barry95

[karyo]

KAYRO, I REMEMBER ON BOXING DAY YOU SAID THE SAME, SHEFFIELD ENDED UP GETTING 15CM WITH A COVERING LASTING ALL WEEK.

Why are you writing in capitals?

 

That was a very different set up with a high pressure cell from southern Greenland slowly sinking. There is no high pressure cell now in any favourable location.

Karyo, are you being serious, parts of the North and North West will end up with some decent coverings of snow. IMBY this is for sure going to be the coldest week for some time.

No way, the short cold spell in late December was colder than next week will be.

[Banbury]

Why are you writing in capitals?

 

That was a very different set up with a high pressure cell from southern Greenland slowly sinking. There is no high pressure cell now in any favourable location.

No way, the short cold spell in late December was colder than next week will be.

You must have missed the MBY ( My Back Yard ) bit, I don't reside in Manchester.

 

You said a brief slushy mess???? John Hammond has just said snow piling up in the North overnight ( tonight ).

[karyo]

You must have missed the MBY ( My Back Yard ) bit, I don't reside in Manchester.

 

You said a brief slushy mess???? John Hammond has just said snow piling up in the North overnight ( tonight ).

It is certainly piling up on the Scottish hills and will continue to do so.

 

By the way, I thought MBY posts are best for the regional threads.

Edited January 10, 2015 by karyo

[SE Blizzards]

Further evidence at 240 on tonights ECM that the PV is starting to drain away from Greenland and shift itself to a more favourable position later this month..

 

 

And i'm not sure if anyone has posted this today, but today's updated AO forecast see's most members falling off a cliff as we head into the last third of January.

[knocker]

The ECM has the storm 18z Weds. 955mb NW of Ireland with 900mb SW winds gusting 90kts  in the Irish Sea.

[swfc]

It is certainly piling up on the Scottish hills and will continue to do so.

 

By the way, I thought MBY posts are best for the regional threads.

Id agree with karyo the accumilations will be to the nnw and transient else where if at all.Stormy and wet imo is the outlook with the usual suspects over higher ground in the north and west receiving any noticeable wintry weather.I guess the poor winter so far does increase the excitement when a cold-cool zonal spell is shown but for me it just doesn't cut it im afraid.We did have the boxing day snow fall and 4-5 days of cover but as stated the cold was already entrenched and in place.Time will tell as they say and 48 hours is a lifetime in the uk weatherwise esp in our winter!!uto

[nick sussex]

As I don't live in the UK now my posts should be IMBY free! Rather than look through snow tinted glasses and as much as some people might see some snow the last time I looked the UK was not just a hill in the Dales.

 

Lets spare a thought here for many people who haven't seen a flake of snow for nearly two years. These PM flows just don't cut it especially with the fast moving nature of the pattern. So even tonights possible snow will be gone by tomorrow, we shouldn't just lower expectations to such an extent that a few hours of wet snow masks another generally pathetic attempt at proper wintry weather.

 

Yes its nice to see snow at anytime even if it doesn't last long but really is this the best a UK winter can deliver?

 

And probably over half the people in this forum are yet to see a snowflake so until I see synoptics that can deliver to the majority I will continue to call this winter as I see it, which is basically better than last winter which of course wouldn't be difficult but still underwhelming.

 

To use that now infamous analogy from the USA, you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig!

 

There endeth my moan for tonight, lets hope we can at least get a northerly for next weekend and a toppling ridge towards Scandi. And the next low dropping se to the west of the UK.

[Ali1977]

People who are after the white stuff should be more focused on the weekend, especially those further south. Air from a more Nirtherly direction rather that NW.

[mulzy]

As I don't live in the UK now my posts should be IMBY free! Rather than look through snow tinted glasses and as much as some people might see some snow the last time I looked the UK was not just a hill in the Dales.

Lets spare a thought here for many people who haven't seen a flake of snow for nearly two years. These PM flows just don't cut it especially with the fast moving nature of the pattern. So even tonights possible snow will be gone by tomorrow, we shouldn't just lower expectations to such an extent that a few hours of wet snow masks another generally pathetic attempt at proper wintry weather.

Yes its nice to see snow at anytime even if it doesn't last long but really is this the best a UK winter can deliver?

And probably over half the people in this forum are yet to see a snowflake so until I see synoptics that can deliver to the majority I will continue to call this winter as I see it, which is basically better than last winter which of course wouldn't be difficult but still underwhelming.

To use that now infamous analogy from the USA, you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig!

There endeth my moan for tonight, lets hope we can at least get a northerly for next weekend and a toppling ridge towards Scandi. And the next low dropping se to the west of the UK.

A very level headed post Nick.

To be honest, the NWP is rather underwhelming (as far as sustained cold and widespread snow is concerned) at present. Yes, winter 14/15 is likely to be colder than last year, but expectations for this winter were quite high with signals such as SAI and OPI supportive of a cold winter. Anyway, the last third of January and February could deliver the goods so hope is far from lost.

Edited January 10, 2015 by mulzy