February 2015 CET forecasts

[Summer Sun]

2.9 to the 14th

 

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

If the conditions remain roughly the same as now til the end of the month I should be within 1 degree of my 5.0C prediction.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 3.1 to the 15th

 

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 3.8C while maxima look like reaching the into the 7s, so an increase to 3.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

3.3C to the 17th (4.0)

3.4C to the 18th (5.0)

3.5C to the 19th (5.4)

3.6C to the 20th (5.7)

3.7C to the 21st (5.5)

3.8C to the 22nd (6.2)

3.8C to the 23rd (4.1)

3.9C to the 24th (4.5)

4.0C to the 25th (7.1)

 

Another slightly above average week to 10 days coming up, about 1.3C above the 81-10 average and 2.0C above the 61-90 average.

There is still a good chance of finishing above the 61-90 average, and a small chance of beating the 81-10 average. If the GFS is accurate, we'll be above the 61-90 rolling average by the 21st, and within 0.5C of 81-10 rolling average by the 23rd.

 

[damianslaw]

Looks like February will end up the coldest month of the winter, but possibly only just.. A very near average finishing total looks like, with an outside chance we may end up slightly below the 61-90 average, but a more likely chance we will end up the 81-10 average.

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 3.3 to the 16th

 

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

3.3 to the 17th

 

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 3.5c to the 18th

 

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 5.2C while maxima look like reaching over 8C, so an increase to 3.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

3.6C to the 20th (4.6)

3.7C to the 21st (3.7)

3.7C to the 22nd (4.8]

3.7C to the 23rd (3.9)

3.8C to the 24th (4.9)

3.8C to the 25th (7.7)

4.0C to the 26th (8.5)

4.1C to the 27th (4.3)

4.1C to the 28th (3.8]

 

So it looks like the last 10 days will average about 1.0C above the 81-10 average and 1.4C above the 61-90 average. At this stage, I'd say the likely finishing range before corrections is 3.5C to 4.5C, and 3.1C to 4.5C after corrections. So very likely to be below the 81-10 average, but getting below the 61-90 average is looking a bit tougher.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Unless 2015 performs a 1890/1950/1962/1981/1995/2010 style u-turn at the end, then March 2013's 2.7C will remain unbeaten for another year

Edited February 19, 2015 by Craig Evans

[Gustywind]

It will probably remain unbeaten for quite a long time actually. If you look at Roger's CET statistics in the March 2015 CET thread, March 2013 was the coldest since March 1892. Obviously, there is nothing to say that this March couldn't be colder, but it is extremely unlikely.

Think he was referring to all months, not specifically March.

[Weather26]

Up-to 3.6c to the 19th

 

0.0c dead on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

 

feel free to correct me if the 81-10 average is wrong.

Edited February 20, 2015 by Weather26

[Summer Sun]

 

Up-to 3.6c to the 19th

 

0.0c dead on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

 

feel free to correct me if the 81-10 average is wrong.

 

 

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average I make it

[BornFromTheVoid]

The rolling 81-10 CET to the 19th is 4.3C, and it remains on 4.3C until the 27th when it increases to 4.4C

[Summer Sun]

3.7c to the 20th

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited February 21, 2015 by Summer Sun

[damianslaw]

Probably a 50/50 chance at this range we will return a CET value below the 81-10 average. The next 3 days are unlikely to deliver much of a rise, probably around 4.1 degrees by Wednesday, its what happens Wed-Sat. Top value with downward adjustments (but not the same degree as Jan) probably 4.7 degrees, if I was to hazard a guess we will end up only slightly above at 4.5 degrees on a par with Jan. A very average month.

 

When was the last time Jan and Feb CET values in the same year were the same.. must a rare occurance?

[Weather-history]

 

When was the last time Jan and Feb CET values in the same year were the same.. must a rare occurance?

1971

[Summer Sun]

3.7c to the 21st

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is -0.5C while maxima look like hitting about 10C late tonight, so remaining on 3.7C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

3.7C to the 23rd (3.4)

3.7C to the 24th (4.2)

3.8C to the 25th (5.0)

3.9C to the 26th (6.2)

3.9C to the 27th (4.5)

3.9C to the 28th (4.8]

 

So a slow rise should see a likely finishing range of 3.7C to 4.1C before corrections, and 3.3C to 4.1C after corrections. A small possibly that it end up as the 3rd coldest in the last 19 years.

[damianslaw]

Mmmm CET not likely to rise as fast as I thought yesterday with at least 3 preety chilly days ahead, and the mid week milder interlude looks very shortlived now. So there is a chance we could end up sub 4 degrees. What is likely is Feb will be the coldest month of the winter.

[Summer Sun]

3.7c to the 22nd

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield on 3.4C -0.9C below average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

3.7C to the 23rd

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2015

 

Yesterday was 4.2C. The minimum today is 2.7C while maxima look like reaching the mid 7s, so an increase to 3.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:
 

3.9C to the 25th (7.0)

4.1C to the 26th (8.4)

4.1C to the 27th (4.4)

4.2C to the 28th (6.3)

 

At this stage, a finish of 4.1 to 4.3C before corrections is likely, and 3.6 to 4.3C after corrections. Still a small chance of the final figure being below the 61-90 average, but no chance of finishing above the 81-10 average.

Edited February 24, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Snowyowl9]

Temps look up/down/up for the rest of this month.

It could well end up below the 71-00 average.

Edited February 24, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[Summer Sun]

CET remains 0.6c below the 81 to 10 average