Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st Feb Onwards

[Kent Blizzard]

When 48hrs away is so hard to forecast it makes you wonder why we look into FI constantly...Let alone argue and gfuqhgfpjh about it LOL

Edited February 3, 2015 by Kent Blizzard

[Coopsy]

I wonder if some of the more knowledgeable can help me out on this. I'm under one of those showers affecting north Essex as we speak. I have an outside temperature of -1.2c and it was clear and frosty until this shower arrived. We have a dp of -0.5c and uppers of -8c. Somehow it is raining. The water is freezing on contact but it is most definitely rain. Where is the warm air coming from in the atmosphere to melt the snow on its journey to the ground? I thought it might be the sea but the air with current wind direction is having to track across about 60 miles of land which should allow it to cool especially and we have very light winds.

Good question. When I lived in Canada we were 100's of miles away from any water and it was -7oC and raining one day. Warm upper air and freezing cold at the surface froze the windscreen solid couldnt drive for more than a minute. Very bizarre

[2810lollypop]

We best hope it does come down to nowcast because to me it does not look that great for Thursday, I will happily be wrong.

just what I was thinking ....

[80sWeather]

Does anyone know where you can get historical radar and chart data? I'm curious to see what the charts looked like for January 1987 for the south east and also any radar imagery as those sea effect showers must have looked pretty amazing. Remember getting 2.5 feet up on the north downs.

 

Maybe 2.5mm's tonight? lol

 

 

Not sure where to get historical radar images ect.

Here is a sat pic of Jan 1987 showing the convection piling in of the North Sea, had it lurking on my PC for ages!

 

[Paul]

I wonder if some of the more knowledgeable can help me out on this. I'm under one of those showers affecting north Essex as we speak. I have an outside temperature of -1.2c and it was clear and frosty until this shower arrived. We have a dp of -0.5c and uppers of -8c. Somehow it is raining. The water is freezing on contact but it is most definitely rain. Where is the warm air coming from in the atmosphere to melt the snow on its journey to the ground? I thought it might be the sea but the air with current wind direction is having to track across about 60 miles of land which should allow it to cool especially and we have very light winds.

 

The 850-1000 thickness is and important factor for snow forecasting as it looks at the temperature between 850hpa and the ground (essentially). At around 1290 in your neck of the woods you're not nailed on for snow - that's around a 60-70% chance of snow at that level, you'd want to be at around 1280 for a 90% + risk.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder if some of the more knowledgeable can help me out on this. I'm under one of those showers affecting north Essex as we speak. I have an outside temperature of -1.2c and it was clear and frosty until this shower arrived. We have a dp of -0.5c and uppers of -8c. Somehow it is raining. The water is freezing on contact but it is most definitely rain. Where is the warm air coming from in the atmosphere to melt the snow on its journey to the ground? I thought it might be the sea but the air with current wind direction is having to track across about 60 miles of land which should allow it to cool especially and we have very light winds.

 

 

Its freezing rain, its unusual but you can have rain with -8c uppers.

[Paul Sherman]

And that Oh So Perfect Set-Up on the Charts!

 

-21c here in SE Essex, the Sea Froze at Leigh On Sea, People had to Ski down the A127 To get Bread and Milk, some drifts were 10ft High after the snow had stopped due to Strong 40mph North Easterlies!

 

-20c Uppers into the SE - Nowt Marginal About that - Rofl!

 

 

 

Proper Winter!

 

Oh and my School was open - Twas Just a 15 year old Lad then!

 

 

 

Edited February 3, 2015 by Paul Sherman

[Nick F]

18z UKMO (meso) showing some light snow showers moving more inland early Thursday morning T+33-T+36 (03z to 06z) - which co-incides with a wind switch from Nly to NEly. Looking fairly dry before then, though East Anglia and E Kent perhaps prone to occasional wintry showers tomorrow.

Edited February 3, 2015 by Nick F

[Thinon]

After Thursday, I'll be signing up to to the "roll on spring" brigade. I give up with our useless winters. My son will be 3 years old next winter, and he doesn't even know what snow looks like or feels like. Sad times.

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure where to get historical radar images ect.

Here is a sat pic of Jan 1987 showing the convection piling in of the North Sea, had it lurking on my PC for ages!

 

Jan 1987.jpg

 

I don't suppose you have any videos of TV forecasts lurking around of 1987?

[Coopsy]

Not sure where to get historical radar images ect.

Here is a sat pic of Jan 1987 showing the convection piling in of the North Sea, had it lurking on my PC for ages!

 

Jan 1987.jpg

Awesome! Thanks 

I don't suppose you have any videos of TV forecasts lurking around of 1987?

I found this

 

[fine wine]

The 850-1000 thickness is and important factor for snow forecasting as it looks at the temperature between 850hpa and the ground (essentially). At around 1290 in your neck of the woods you're not nailed on for snow - that's around a 60-70% chance of snow at that level, you'd want to be at around 1280 for a 90% + risk.

 

850-1000.png

Thanks for the informative post. Does this mean that there is a wedge of warmer air a few hundred / thousand feet up before it drops of up to the 850hpa level?

[Coopsy]

And that Oh So Perfect Set-Up on the Charts!

 

-21c here in SE Essex, the Sea Froze at Leigh On Sea, People had to Ski down the A127 To get Bread and Milk, some drifts were 10ft High after the snow had stopped due to Strong 40mph North Easterlies!

 

-20c Uppers into the SE - Nowt Marginal About that - Rofl!

 

Rrea00219870112.gif

 

Rrea00119870111.gif

 

Proper Winter!

 

Oh and my School was open - Twas Just a 15 year old Lad then!

This does funny things to my stomach....oh what I'd give to see that again here. I was a wee lad - problem is getting that kind of weather as a kid ruins you for life lol

[feb1991blizzard]

Awesome! Thanks 

I found this

 

 

Cheers, yes I have seen that, the 2 ones I want are the Country file on the sunday (1987 Jan) with John Kettley and the Countryfile on the sunday with Ian Mccaskil in Feb 1991, ive seen his wed 6th 1991 forecast also on youtube.

[Coopsy]

I was looking for the countryfile too. Have you seen the Francis Wilson forecast for 1991? quite a classic

 

Edited February 3, 2015 by Nemesis

[80sWeather]

I don't suppose you have any videos of TV forecasts lurking around of 1987?

 

Sorry no but this one for 1991 never fails to crack me up

 

 

 

 

edit Nemesis u read my mind!

Edited February 3, 2015 by 80sWeather

[Paul Sherman]

Its hilarious to think we are scrabbling around for sleety showers when Ian Macaskill says at 2mins 40 seconds

 

"Tomorrow not quite as cold as today with -4c the High" and -15c Effective Feel Like Temps - Mwahaha

 

Think one of the days here had a mean of -14c for the day (Now thats an Ice Day)

 

-9c Daytime High and -19c at Night!

 

I still say to this day, than even with 34cm of Level Snow between 30th November 2010 and 02nd December 2010, 1987 out-trumps it for sheer brutality and drifts etc etc. The stark thing about 1987 was it started on a Wednesday and by the end of the weekend the temps were around 7c, a very brief but severe cold snap!

[Coopsy]

 

 

I still say to this day, than even with 34cm of Level Snow between 30th November 2010 and 02nd December 2010, 1987 out-trumps it for sheer brutality and drifts etc etc. The stark thing about 1987 was it started on a Wednesday and by the end of the weekend the temps were around 7c, a very brief but severe cold snap!

I think for anyone over 35 the 1987 snows will always be the benchmark....truly remarkable. Even as a kid I knew that I was witnessing something special

[Biggin]

Awesome! Thanks 

I found this

 

Ha I remember icicles, whatever happened to them??

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes ive seen the Francis Wilson, he was always so vague, 'ones down there and there and kent'  LOL  'and by Friday deep snow causing chaos I would imagine'

 

 

[yamkin]

Gritters are being deployed in Croydon to treat A & B routes. Outside chance of light snow during the early hours.

[Sno' problem]

There does seem to be some ppn building just off the North coast of East Anglia... Could be the first signs of some decent convection, time will tell, but not holding my breath over this one... the temps and DP's are just too high here, but maybe some other might profit.

[Paul Sherman]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srOC7pg9UAU

 

Always remember this one from Thames News and the Great Jack Scott!

[Coopsy]

Ha I remember icicles, whatever happened to them??

Its a conspiracy theory - the government eliminated them from winter life circa feb 1991

[feb1991blizzard]

I think for anyone over 35 the 1987 snows will always be the benchmark....truly remarkable. Even as a kid I knew that I was witnessing something special

 

Yes 87 and 91 the bench mark, I lived in the West Midlands and they were my best ever and by some distance, I hated school and was desperate to get time off, that's how I got into weather forecasting, I used to watch the countryfile every sunday, the fact that I had nearly 2 weeks off school meant I knew it was something special, but because every year in the early - mid 80s, I had seen at least a 6 inch fall, I still didn't know quite the magnitude of what was unfolding, I think the fact that I witnessed 2 falls in the space of 4 years nearly / over a foot in level snow, made me think it was unusual but not extreme as my mom and dad always talked about 63 and 47, now obviously I haven't even come close since Feb 1991 so that's 24 years and counting, that does really make me think they were very very special.

Edited February 3, 2015 by feb1991blizzard