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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

The GFS 12z might make people smile, high twenties or even 30C possible by next Friday with cape values through the roof.

That's more like it! Lovely charts. Heat and long lasting storms, looks like a plume from the 80s, dreamy. Hopefully won't get shunted E as has been typical of the last decade or so.

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

Yes it seems like the models, mainly the GFS and the Euro have brought the main thundery low foward to Friday evening. From the GFS 12Z run, it looks absolutely brilliant, with high temperatures throughout England and Wales and some pretty exceptional CAPE values. To add to that there are also some pretty decent lapse rates too.

 

post-21671-0-21226600-1432918937_thumb.p post-21671-0-62939700-1432918935_thumb.p post-21671-0-13148400-1432918936_thumb.p post-21671-0-61978200-1432918936_thumb.p

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

This run is just ridiculous!!! 15c isotherm shooting out of the top of Scotland into Shetland with the highlands projected to see 2000j/kg CAPE ;)  :blink2: 

Unbelievable!!

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted (edited)

This run is just ridiculous!!! 15c isotherm shooting out of the top of Scotland into Shetland with the highlands projected to see 2000j/kg CAPE ;)  :blink2:

Unbelievable!!

 

Won't happen but 372 on GFS absolutely ridiculous for us up here! Night-time supercells maybe if that came off

Edited by NUT
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Won't happen but 372 on GFS absolutely ridiculous for us up here! Night-time supercells maybe if that came off

Lets hope runs like these are set to become the trend over the next few days. Then the dream may well be kept alive!

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Pat Butcher Enthusiast

Pat Butcher

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Yes it seems like the models, mainly the GFS and the Euro have brought the main thundery low foward to Friday evening. From the GFS 12Z run, it looks absolutely brilliant, with high temperatures throughout England and Wales and some pretty exceptional CAPE values. To add to that there are also some pretty decent lapse rates too.

 

attachicon.gifTemps.png attachicon.gifCAPE.png attachicon.gifLapse.png attachicon.gifRisk.png

Stop it, we all know that this good stuff is just going to end up in Lincolnshire!

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Stop it, we all know that this good stuff is just going to end up in Lincolnshire!

That's ok, I will drive to Lincolnshire :-). Maybe we should be thinking about a flight to Holland and Belgium though rather than Lincolnshire. Those charts though...if only

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

This is the positive side to climate change - if Labour pointed out that scrapping carbon targets would mean better plumes for thunder-nuts they would totally storm the elections!

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Yes it seems like the models, mainly the GFS and the Euro have brought the main thundery low foward to Friday evening. From the GFS 12Z run, it looks absolutely brilliant, with high temperatures throughout England and Wales and some pretty exceptional CAPE values. To add to that there are also some pretty decent lapse rates too.

 

attachicon.gifTemps.png attachicon.gifCAPE.png attachicon.gifLapse.png attachicon.gifRisk.png

Utterly salivating it would sure blast the cobwebs away.

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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

Im reserving myself from being drawn in, but you cant help it can you, the excitement is building. Zanex should be shipped into the forums.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I haven't had a look at the model output at all today. but I'll take a wild stab that CAPE & Lifted Indices are off the charts, way off in FI...yes?

 

what about the triggering mechanisms?....are there any to put a smile on my face?....If not, then you can have a zillion j/kg of convective energy but the result will be diddly squat

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

I haven't had a look at the model output at all today. but I'll take a wild stab that CAPE & Lifted Indices are off the charts, way off in FI...yes?

 

what about the triggering mechanisms?....are there any to put a smile on my face?....If not, then you can have a zillion j/kg of convective energy but the result will be diddly squat

13th June last year I seem to recall had very little parameters in place for a substantial storm outbreak, it was virtually slap bang under a high pressure system with a light Northerly setting in. Was very surprised indeed to wake up the next morning and see all the fantastic pictures and reports on the storms over Buckinghamshire, Hampshire and Sussex! 

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

The potential of a plume is good enough...a day over 26C would also be a welcome relief too :D

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Yep, the GFS is still going for it with the 18Z run, though it has toned it down slightly. Still very good though, at this stage... :)

 

post-21671-0-48029900-1432938846_thumb.p post-21671-0-26543900-1432938847_thumb.p post-21671-0-77151800-1432938847_thumb.p post-21671-0-35011800-1432938848_thumb.p

Edited by Thunderbolt_
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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

It's all down hill from here! By Thursday we'll be looking at a gust of wind and a rainbow, and that's it! ;-)

Seriously though - I'm excited! And I love how most plumes happen on a Friday :-D

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Just when you thought it couldn't get any better, the pub run has delivered absolutely exceptional charts!

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Yep, the GFS is still going for it with the 18Z run, though it has toned it down slightly. Still very good though, at this stage... :)

 

attachicon.gifCAPE.png attachicon.gifLapse.png attachicon.gifRisk.png attachicon.gifTemps.png

The pub run really is on the stupid sauce for next weekend, temperatures into the low 30s in central/southern England, high instability allowing thunderstorms near enough anywhere and also the risk of severe storms pushing up from France and the Bay of Biscay. Insane run.

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