Scotland - Weather Chat

[Guest]

 

Whether this Northerly stays dialled in for Saturday morning or shifts west / east gives us a good bit of model watching throughout the week. Fingers crossed for enough of the white stuff to get the wee dude out on the sledge on Saturday morning !

 

What worries me is the consistency at this stage...if that makes sense? At least it's early season so if/when it all goes wrong there's plenty more time left to play with.

[NorthernRab]

The GFS delivers some 4-6 inches of snow for the Highland Capital next Friday / Saturday depending on which run you rely on over the last 24 hours. We shall see!

Edited November 15, 2015 by NorthernRab

[Sunshineandshowers84]

What are we expecting next weekend is it an Artic airflow? If so I may see some drier weather with overnight frost.. The mountains will shelter the Central Belt from any snow showers... If it's our polar maratime well expect no dry weather.. Think we have made up for that dry autumn now that's 2 weeks of wet weather everyday..

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon peeps! Dull, dreich and very mild up here today. Getting breezy too and it looks as if tomorrow will be a tad on the breezy side. We'll see what the week throws at us as far as cold is concerned, but I doubt we'll see any white stuff where we are.

[Guest]

What are we expecting next weekend is it an Artic airflow? If so I may see some drier weather with overnight frost.. The mountains will shelter the Central Belt from any snow showers... If it's our polar maratime well expect no dry weather.. Think we have made up for that dry autumn now that's 2 weeks of wet weather everyday..

 

Very much an Arctic airflow. I think that's your best bet in your location, expect some frost and hope hard for a couple of flakes of snow. It's never usually any good where you are in a northerly

 

Here's the GFS take on max temps for Saturday at 3pm. This would feel brutal after the exceptional mild we've seen recently:

 

Edited November 15, 2015 by CatchMyDrift

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Looks like a bitter cold day for the 3pm kick offs next Saturday.. Proper pie and bovril conditions..

[Ravelin]

Detail is far from certain at this stage for next weekend but I'm not sure it'll be a straight northerly. ECM at the moment looks like that but latest GFS is showing more of a North Easterly flow, at least on Saturday. As for snow prospects, who knows, a front coming through could deliver it almost anywhere if it's organised enough. Will certainly be an interesting week of model watching.

As for this weekend, well yesterday morning was dry and sunny, but also cool with a stiff breeze. Clouded over in the afternoon. Today is less windy but wall to wall mist, low cloud and fine drizzle. Temps around 6-8C. Certainly felt more like Autumn weather the last week or so compared to before that.

[peborant]

Do you reckon Scotland is almost 4 degrees above average for the time of year or am I wrong in assuming that CET is not a good reference for us? 

 

/

 

SO EXCITED about next week!

[Hairy Celt]

Hmm looks a tad breezy in the north again tomorrow. Oh hang on, I forgot, we've already had one storm, we're not allowed another yet.

 

Lying snow next weekend maybe... at what level though is the $64k question.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Do you reckon Scotland is almost 4 degrees above average for the time of year or am I wrong in assuming that CET is not a good reference for us? 

 

/

 

SO EXCITED about next week!

I don't have the exact figures to hand but here's the anomaly chart for Europe based on the GFS for the month so far:

UK as a whole is 3C above average but looking at it Scotland's probably only around 1-1.5C above average, and (obviously) likely to decrease in the next 7 days to nearer average.

[shuggee]

Here we go for the first lowland widespread snow forecast.

 

It's T+129 - but a Central Belt delight.  At those 850s, it's snow to sea level:

 

 

[Polar Side]

I'm liking that chart shuggee !!

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Wait and see if it's a direct wind from the Artic I would expect both west and east coasts to get wintry showers and inland areas to see dry but cold weather (with a windchill) conditions.. I would rather see that whether it will happen or no is another story..

[Hawesy]

Do you reckon Scotland is almost 4 degrees above average for the time of year or am I wrong in assuming that CET is not a good reference for us?

/

SO EXCITED about next week!

Some data for individual stations here to add to the info from LS: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

The day began wet and ended wet but there was temporary clearance late morning and we even saw a glimpse of the sun! Very mild this evening, Leuchars touched 15c at 9pm.

Edited November 15, 2015 by Hawesy

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Been cloudy and wet all day in Glasgow just typical Warm Front weather... However in the last hour the wind has picked up.. Doesn't sound nice outside pretty strong winds now...

[Ravelin]

13.4c outside here right now, hopefully the last warm blip before proper weather sets in (I'm calling it warm, that exceeds mild, especially for mid Nov).

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Met Office predicting a 12/13c in my location just now and a drop to 4c by 6am..

[skifreak]

14ºc on the Car Thermometer driving into Inverness between 11 and midnight! Bit of a difference from morning and likely to be quite a difference by dawn. Meto Summit forecasts have the temperature at the Summit of Meall a' Bhuiridh going from +7 to -3ºc by dawn with snow falling! Hopefully something of the drifts higher on Glencoe, Nevis and CairnGorm will survive the mild blast, to initiate the base building process that's required to fill in the burns, and deep gullies and hollows that form the natural runs at these areas. 

[Hairy Celt]

Another breezy day coming up in the north. This one's called Beelzebub.

 

Just looked at the trafficscotland website and not once on the advice page does it mention winter tyres.  Perhaps no-one there actually uses the roads.

Edited November 16, 2015 by Hairy Celt

[Ravelin]

Dry, bright and sunny start to the day with temps around 5C. Quite a drop from last night's warmth. Forecast for the rest of the week here is max temps of around 7C midweek, mins around 4C, then dropping off towards the weekend, so more like it should be for this time of the year. What exactly the weekend will bring is still anyone's guess, but from a quick scan of the models this morning I'd say it looks a bit 'watered down' compared to some of the charts of the last few days.

Edited November 16, 2015 by Ravelin

[NUT]

Flip around continues. Was really mild/spring like yesterday now back to late autumn chill with showers

[peborant]

Min of 4,1 at Dollar. Temps plummeted overnight!must be hovering around 6 now but I am in tillicoultry actually came down walking and the river devon is in quite high spirits.

[Hairy Celt]

4C near Bettyhill now after 9C yesterday evening and the showers are ever so slightly sleety as well as being very heavy.  Rainbows too.

[Guest]

Dry, bright and sunny start to the day with temps around 5C. Quite a drop from last night's warmth. Forecast for the rest of the week here is max temps of around 7C midweek, mins around 4C, then dropping off towards the weekend, so more like it should be for this time of the year. What exactly the weekend will bring is still anyone's guess, but from a quick scan of the models this morning I'd say it looks a bit 'watered down' compared to some of the charts of the last few days.

 

Something might pop up in terms of precip for the weekend, but it does look frosty rather than snowy. Time will tell and it's much better than having 15ºC at 2am.

[Hairy Celt]

Something might pop up in terms of precip for the weekend, but it does look frosty rather than snowy. Time will tell and it's much better than having 15ºC at 2am.

 

Looks a bit cold and slack on the fax chart at 120 hours, from what I can make out.  As you say, better this at the end of November than the blowdrier weather from recently.  The winter rubber would have burnt up in no time...

 

Barney???? Who named these?

Edited November 16, 2015 by shuggee