Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Thunderbolt_]

18z with another teaser...

 

Even if that run was to come off exactly as it appears now, I really can't see that low delievering much of anything. The temperatures at 850hpa aren't really warm enough. All you'd get is a few very isolated thunderstorms knocking around, and that would require it to also be reasonably sunny too. The lapse rates aren't fantastic either...

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Even if that run was to come off exactly as it appears now, I really can't see that low delievering much of anything. The temperatures at 850hpa aren't really warm enough. All you'd get is a few very isolated thunderstorms knocking around, and that would require it to also be reasonably sunny too. The lapse rates aren't fantastic either...

 

850s.png CAPE.png Lapse.png

Still, I'd take that over plain boring Northerlies any day of the week! Synoptics and parameters may also alter within the setup should it trend further. Or it could just disappear altogether!

[Thunderbolt_]

You have much to learn. 

 

Elaborate...

[UKSupercell]

http://www.dorint.tv/webcam/bitburg/

 

Look at this stream, pretty regular lightning! 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en - 60 per minute around this area 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

http://www.dorint.tv/webcam/bitburg/

 

Look at this stream, pretty regular lightning! 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en - 60 per minute around this area 

Jeez, would love to be there!

[UKSupercell]

Jeez, would love to be there!

 

Lucky krauts. 

 

It's the same every year now. These storms that first form over far northern Spain and southern France, morph into monsters that develop over central France, and from there onwards they continue growing and march North-Easterly/Eastwards into the Benelux or western Germany. If we're lucky, they clip Kent and sometimes move into Essex and East Anglia like last night but it's tedious being in Bucks, too far west despite being in the "south-east of England." 

I can remember many years ago, late 90s early 2000s growing up and seeing huge summer storms, probably French imports. Only French imports we get these days are illegal and come in the back of lorries from Calais.   

Mind you we did have a whopper last summer, frequent lightning.

[Dean E]

Lucky krauts. 

 

It's the same every year now. These storms that first form over far northern Spain and southern France, morph into monsters that develop over central France, and from there onwards they continue growing and march North-Easterly/Eastwards into the Benelux or western Germany. If we're lucky, they clip Kent and sometimes move into Essex and East Anglia like last night but it's tedious being in Bucks, too far west despite being in the "south-east of England." 

I can remember many years ago, late 90s early 2000s growing up and seeing huge summer storms, probably French imports. Only French imports we get these days are illegal and come in the back of lorries from Calais.   

Mind you we did have a whopper last summer, frequent lightning.

 

As we all know from the recent summers, this has been the norm for the UK now. Huge MCS systems moving due North/North East and once they hit the channel, the energy moves East along Northern France and then explode once again over Belgium and The Netherlands. Saw it at least 3 times last summer alone! Back in the early 2000s I remember storms lasting all night with frequent lightning and huge amounts of rain. Really was great memories!

 

Would be interesting to see whats changed that prevents imports moving North over the English Channel. Sea temperatures maybe? 

 

So far this summer we've had one shot at this, but I wouldn't call it a fail as we never really got the heat in for long enough. After a dismal May, we've not had many chances, so its good to see June is starting on a positive note!

[UKSupercell]

As we all know from the recent summers, this has been the norm for the UK now. Huge MCS systems moving due North/North East and once they hit the channel, the energy moves East along Northern France and then explode once again over Belgium and The Netherlands. Saw it at least 3 times last summer alone! Back in the early 2000s I remember storms lasting all night with frequent lightning and huge amounts of rain. Really was great memories!

 

Would be interesting to see whats changed that prevents imports moving North over the English Channel. Sea temperatures maybe? 

 

So far this summer we've had one shot at this, but I wouldn't call it a fail as we never really got the heat in for long enough. After a dismal May, we've not had many chances, so its good to see June is starting on a positive note!

 

Same here. I've wondered the same thing. Hopefully the next three months will provide some good heat and some good instability! Last summer was actually quite decent for storms. Saw a few down on Exmoor then got back here and saw a whopper think some time in July I can't remember. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

As we all know from the recent summers, this has been the norm for the UK now. Huge MCS systems moving due North/North East and once they hit the channel, the energy moves East along Northern France and then explode once again over Belgium and The Netherlands. Saw it at least 3 times last summer alone! Back in the early 2000s I remember storms lasting all night with frequent lightning and huge amounts of rain. Really was great memories!

 

Would be interesting to see whats changed that prevents imports moving North over the English Channel. Sea temperatures maybe? 

 

So far this summer we've had one shot at this, but I wouldn't call it a fail as we never really got the heat in for long enough. After a dismal May, we've not had many chances, so its good to see June is starting on a positive note!

 

 

Lucky krauts. 

 

It's the same every year now. These storms that first form over far northern Spain and southern France, morph into monsters that develop over central France, and from there onwards they continue growing and march North-Easterly/Eastwards into the Benelux or western Germany. If we're lucky, they clip Kent and sometimes move into Essex and East Anglia like last night but it's tedious being in Bucks, too far west despite being in the "south-east of England." 

I can remember many years ago, late 90s early 2000s growing up and seeing huge summer storms, probably French imports. Only French imports we get these days are illegal and come in the back of lorries from Calais.   

Mind you we did have a whopper last summer, frequent lightning.

 

Yep I remember those nights where sometimes it seemed like it would never stop!! I'm sure most of them cracking plumes happened in July and August though, and since 2003 really, we have yet to have a real decent August to remember. I think the last decent whopper we had in August was on the 31st of the year 2005 where lightning was almost constant and I experienced brief powercuts and the sound of sirens from the emergency services!! That was a day where the temp peaked at 31-32c and then the perfect ingredients that evening must've all come together at once, with decent deep layer shear, massive CAPE values at the surface and mid levels. 

I'm sure that when plumes to happen at that time of the summer, it would be the best time to be able to tap into some real decent juicy upper air temps, probably near 20c at 850hpa, and so therefore a bigger destabilisation of the plume takes place and surface temperatures really rocket. 

We really are overdue a baking hot and plumey August if I'm honest.

[Karl83]

I am also looking at travelling to Belgium when the next storms are being forecast. What they get over there appears to miles better than what we get here so would be well worth it.

 

If anyone is interested we could go in convoy and make it a yearly thing. Who needs the USA when you have Europe on the door step!

[Raidan]

I'd be up for that Karl sounds like a good idea!

[Supacell]

Yeah I would too. It would just be a case of juggling it around work and commitments.

[Captain Shortwave]

It is worth noting that yesterdays thunderstorms were mostly homegrown, it was a shame that the plume didn't put up more of a fight as we could have had a widespread outbreak of thunderstorms across central/southern England. As soon as the sun appeared above the horizon the storms got cracking.

 

A trip to Belgium would be awesome, that said I was planning on heading there for a weekend in September but this is more for the beer than anything else. Of course September is still fine for plume events.

Edited June 6, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Thunderbolt_]

Yes, I'd certainly consider going to Belgium for the day or for a weekend. I don't know if I would be able to do it this summer, if I did it would have to be after early-mid August. But, yes I would most definately consider it.

[Karl83]

Yes would need to juggle around work commitments too. Ideally the storms would occur on the weekend but that's in the ideal world. If it looks like an absolute belter on a Wednesday then I'm sure something could be arranged.

 

Also, I have absolutely no storm chasing experience whatsoever so having someone like Supacell and any other experienced members in the 'convoy' would be highly beneficial. Just need the storms to happen at the right time so everyone is available!

[Raidan]

I could easily get the time off work would just be a case of others being available at the same time if they were then it could be a very interesting trip.

Just hope that it's not a wasted one although we could check out the local beers so wouldn't be a complete waste of time.

[Spikecollie]

This is weird - according to Blitzortung their are lightning strikes very close to my area here in Limousin, but a less likely day I couldn't imagine. It's completely mistily overcast, admittedly very humid, and 21c.

[UKSupercell]

Yep I remember those nights where sometimes it seemed like it would never stop!! I'm sure most of them cracking plumes happened in July and August though, and since 2003 really, we have yet to have a real decent August to remember. I think the last decent whopper we had in August was on the 31st of the year 2005 where lightning was almost constant and I experienced brief powercuts and the sound of sirens from the emergency services!! That was a day where the temp peaked at 31-32c and then the perfect ingredients that evening must've all come together at once, with decent deep layer shear, massive CAPE values at the surface and mid levels. 

I'm sure that when plumes to happen at that time of the summer, it would be the best time to be able to tap into some real decent juicy upper air temps, probably near 20c at 850hpa, and so therefore a bigger destabilisation of the plume takes place and surface temperatures really rocket. 

We really are overdue a baking hot and plumey August if I'm honest.

 

Yep I can't remember the last scorching August we had. Here's hoping we'll get some real whopping storms over this next three months!

[Spikecollie]

Swathes of western Europe lighting up again this evening - while we in Limousin just bake and have blue skies very conducive to sipping beer under!

 

50,000 lightning strikes in France yesterday - not in my bit - go onto Meteociel to see the video and photos - meteorological French is pretty easy (orages, impacts de foudre etc.)

Edited June 6, 2015 by Spikecollie

[UKSupercell]

Yes if you look at http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime - there's plenty of storms over the Alpine region. Lucky so and so's. 

 

Some footage I found from our friends on the continent: 

 

[Thunderbolt_]

A shower passed by to my south and left a very vivid rainbow, before:

 

[Nouska]

Keraunos have some pictures from the chasers who were out yesterday and today.

 

http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2015/juin/orages-5-juin-2015-photos-foudre-supercellules-arcus-nord-pas-de-calais-picardie-alpes-jura.html

 

http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/chasseurs-orages/chasses-aux-orages-de-la-saison-2015/orages-5-juin-2015-picardie-champagne-supercellule-foudre-chasseur-orages-nicolas-gascard-photos.html

 

impacts in France over the last twenty four hours!

 

 

 

 

[Spikecollie]

Keraunos have some pictures from the chasers who were out yesterday and today.

 

http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2015/juin/orages-5-juin-2015-photos-foudre-supercellules-arcus-nord-pas-de-calais-picardie-alpes-jura.html

 

http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/chasseurs-orages/chasses-aux-orages-de-la-saison-2015/orages-5-juin-2015-picardie-champagne-supercellule-foudre-chasseur-orages-nicolas-gascard-photos.html

 

impacts in France over the last twenty four hours!

 

Yep 50,000 impacts de foudre and none near Limousin. My time will come! Seriously, we do get amazing storms here. We're in a valley surrounded by les monts d'Ambazac. Almost always our storms proceed (sorry I've been speaking French all day and my English brain has shut down a bit - maybe too many sips of beer in the evening sun with my neighbours) from the south, although east is good too. We rarely get elevated storms, real cracking +CG deliverers which make you run for cover. We've had whole nights when the bedroom is like a stroboscope...great when on holiday but not when you're working as I can't sleep through storms!

Edited June 6, 2015 by Spikecollie

[STORMGUY]

massive Thunderstorm slowely moving into 

Geneva, Switzerland - Live Stream

http://www.earthtv.com/en/camera-destination/geneva-switzerland/live-stream/

[Spikecollie]

Just look at Blitzortung. Chambery and the likes must be having supercells...