Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[legritter]

w09's words are a joy to behold, especially for those who missed out last week. While it's still not a given, it is better chance for a wider area.

Yes agree totally ,although detail still patchy it looks more interesting ,we dont always need high temperatures but the ingredients are there ,as for comments on storms now compared to yester year ,i,m pretty sure that over a span of many years the big ones still turn up ,interesting times .

[Hodgheg]

Should be an interesting end to the week again. No doubt ill be stuck in at work with no windows. :/

[Utahraptor]

Any potential for NI?

[Supacell]

Going by ECM and UKM, looks like a proper daytime into evening risk Friday.  And it's nice to see the Met have painted their forecast chart with thunderstorm symbols for that day.  

 

But, like Supacell, booked last Friday off, and although knew wasn't going to pan out for here, took it off anyway lol.  However, if outputs for this Friday hold next couple of days, gonna have come up with something.  Can't be in the office on a warm humid day with CG bolts dropping from the sky. 

 

A sudden stomach bug?

 

Looking at current forecasts it does look like storms would be rumbling around in the south of the country Thursday night so if it looks like all the potential will happen at home whilst I am work then I can spend the night down south and then struggle through work next day. It won't be the first time I have stayed awake for 36 hours to storm chase

[Spikecollie]

We are certainly progged flashy bangy weather over here in France, so instability could be the talk of the end of the week.

[Weather-history]

Sunny weather this morning gives way to the trough as it tracked through this afternoon

[Spikecollie]

A sudden stomach bug?

 

Looking at current forecasts it does look like storms would be rumbling around in the south of the country Thursday night so if it looks like all the potential will happen at home whilst I am work then I can spend the night down south and then struggle through work next day. It won't be the first time I have stayed awake for 36 hours to storm chase

Norovirus is still on the go and can strike very suddenly, but maybe not something I should talk about or recommend!!! The quality of your personal noises on the phone to your boss can increase with the intensity of the thunderstorm risk - you do know that!

Edited June 8, 2015 by Spikecollie

[dusk]

Like last week, I'm looking at various charts closely and lurking in 'ere often for updates on the probability of storms.

 

The FAX chart for Friday suggests that it'll be a warm / occluded front coming up from the South, hitting already warm air. This suggests to my very inexperienced eye that storm activity would be limited (i.e. I'd be expecting some action if it was a cold front, maybe accompanied by a trough).

 

Maybe some more astute observers could clarify the forecasted action for Thu / Fri?

 

TIA

[Mapantz]

Like last week, I'm looking at various charts closely and lurking in 'ere often for updates on the probability of storms.

 

The FAX chart for Friday suggests that it'll be a warm / occluded front coming up from the South, hitting already warm air. This suggests to my very inexperienced eye that storm activity would be limited (i.e. I'd be expecting some action if it was a cold front, maybe accompanied by a trough).

 

Maybe some more astute observers could clarify the forecasted action for Thu / Fri?

 

TIA

Hi Dusk.

I'd refer to one of w09's excellent posts from earlier today.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83244-storm-convective-discussion-010615-onwards/?p=3211183

[matty40s]

norovirus, although a perfect excuse, is nullified if your manager is a storm watcher and stuck in the office viewing your stormchasing exploits........

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hi.  

 

Met FAX has updated for Friday:

 

fax96s.gif

 

In short: game on.  

 

Synoptics at T+72 has a developing cold front, so less chance of system reaching occlusion phase while pushing north.  Don't think it would inhibit potential anyway, tbh, as moist and unstable air mass would be in place, and any form of destabilisation would result in widespread storm development.  But, yes, ideally we wan't shortwave impulses ahead of the cold front for storm development first, then a cold front to finish it off.  

 

18z GFS really pushing for torrential storms Fri afternoon/evening across central parts.  Aligned with ECM.  

 

At present there is still some doubt over how far N these storms get before disintegrating into thundery rain. the 18z has shifted the zone S from the 12z and so S Midlands is the prime spot on this run. I think If you're in the Midlands you're in with a fair shout but a lot to be decided either way yet.

[dusk]

Hi.  

 

Met FAX has updated for Friday:

 

fax96s.gif

 

In short: game on.  

 

Synoptics at T+72 has a developing cold front, so less chance of system reaching occlusion phase while pushing north.  Don't think it would inhibit potential anyway, tbh, as moist and unstable air mass would be in place, and any form of destabilisation would result in widespread storm development.  But, yes, ideally we wan't shortwave impulses ahead of the cold front for storm development first, then a cold front to finish it off.  

 

18z GFS really pushing for torrential storms Fri afternoon/evening across central parts.  Aligned with ECM.  

 

Now, as you say, that does look very interesting indeed!

 

A developing cold front moving North, with a trough on a SW wind? Yeah, I'll have some of that....... 

[Ben Sainsbury]

The BBC forecast at 8am, definitely emphasises how intense the areas of rainfall that will move northwards will be. Getting quite excited looks like widespread activity, waiting on the GFS 6z.

[stainesbloke]

The fax for Friday is very interesting for the South, heat and good storm potential!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Never expected such a shift to be quite honest... And I mean Westwards!

GFS 6z, showing the most widespread potentail again during Friday, temperature values maybe 23-24'c across most of England and Wales!

 

At Friday 3pm:

 

0z Temperature: 6z Temperature:

 

0z Cape and LI: 6z Cape and LI:

 

0z Precipitation: 6z Precipitation:

 

Very interesting to date!

Edited June 9, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[Spikecollie]

Some fabulous TCU developing here in Limousin this afternoon. I think we'll all be sharing the storms this week. 

[Costa Del Fal]

Any thoughts on Cornwall's chances? A lot of talk about Friday in here but looks to be storms/rain moving in down here on Thursday?

[Evening thunder]

Lol, models have finally realised I will be out of the country from Wednesday. 

[Harry]

Lol, models have finally realised I will be out of the country from Wednesday. 

 

Same for me but I leave Thursday AM...I'll probably be flying over fields of AcCas and rampaging MCSs over France which are en route to my area.

 

As long as its the second and final plume of 2015 I'm happy for everyone...honestly   

[Spikecollie]

Same for me but I leave Thursday AM...I'll probably be flying over fields of AcCas and rampaging MCSs over France which are en route to my area.

 

As long as its the second and final plume of 2015 I'm happy for everyone...honestly   

Where are you going? I'm sure they'll give you a nice routing around any activity, and all you'll get is a nice view of it...you might get a few lumps and bumps, but remember that you are completely safe!

[Supacell]

Some of the models delaying the action for here until Fri eve which suits me very well, especially if it means sunshine and heat first.

[Azazel]

Friday afternoon would be perfecttttttttttttttt as I am off work:D

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Where are you going? I'm sure they'll give you a nice routing around any activity, and all you'll get is a nice view of it...you might get a few lumps and bumps, but remember that you are completely safe!

 

Thats what they tell everyone... HATE HATE HATE flying.. I know I know it's totally safe, safer than driving infact, but each time I get on a plane I just think to myself "if one switch, one button anything happens im 36k above the floor" 

 

The fear of flying actually comes from it not being a natural thing to do So your body goes into panic and tells you NO NO NO not do it.

 

When I went for slight therapy there are 2 types of people that fly on planes:

 

"I wonder what film will be on in this flight?"

 

"GET ME OF THE PLANE!!!!"

 

I am one of those that does not like flying Even though ive been to America, Spain so on so on..   

[Utahraptor]

Just another westward shift.. Please

[Greeny]

Thats what they tell everyone... HATE HATE HATE flying.. I know I know it's totally safe, safer than driving infact, but each time I get on a plane I just think to myself "if one switch, one button anything happens im 36k above the floor" 

 

The fear of flying actually comes from it not being a natural thing to do So your body goes into panic and tells you NO NO NO not do it.

 

When I went for slight therapy there are 2 types of people that fly on planes:

 

"I wonder what film will be on in this flight?"

 

"GET ME OF THE PLANE!!!!"

 

I am one of those that does not like flying Even though ive been to America, Spain so on so on..   

 

I'm off to Mexico in August and I haven't flown in a while. I just need to go back to the first time I ever jumped on an airline when I was a kid where I hadn't seen much. I loved it! Just gotta try to remember that time. Forgetting all the incidents I've seen on TV about plane crashes, terrorism issues etc that have brought up more fear over the years.