Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Methuselah]

Thought you'd like to know that just as I'm getting ready to set off for work in Poitiers, the rumbles and flashes have started over the hills.

 

EDIT: Massive CG strike on hill just nearby - I will stay calm and drive within my capabilities...

 

EDIT: Almost constant thunder, incredible lightning all around every few seconds. Need to go, will try and get back on later when I get to Poitiers (if I get to Poitiers - hmm).

Did you make it?

[Harry]

Those fear of flying courses that the airlines run are very effective and worth he money.

 

The main thing with a fear of flying is not understanding how an aircraft works and the second thing is learning to confront the fear and this is what those courses do. When you know how an aircraft works and you can beat the anxiety response from your body, it's very difficult to have a fear of flying.

 

I adore flying. LOVE IT, but still whenever we line up for takeoff on the runway, my heat rate goes right up even though I enjoy it.

 

EDIT; oops, sorry Nick, just seen your post.

 

I was surprised not to see any storms in Italy as the mountains built some SERIOUS storm clouds, but it sort of just hung over the mountains and never came down to the coast.

 

I love Rhodes Harry, which resort are you going too? I'd be very surprised if you get storms at this time of year. They are very common in April and October/November over there.

 

I'm going to Lindos for a wedding...really need a holiday!! Over the past couple of weeks it has been stormy in that part of the world (not a complete wash out)

 

There have been fairly consistent signs (which is surprising given how far out it is) of a plume the week I get back...I certainly don't expect the charts to show that in a few days time, but it helps quell the disappointment of not being her Thursday night/Friday.

 

Still looking good for action across a wide portion of C/S England Thursday night and through Friday - again though a very fleeting affair.

[Chris K]

I think all the thundery stuff will be gone by Saturday night. It is Thursday night to Saturday morning the period where thunderstorms could occur.

 

Indeed. Friday afternoon looking particularly interesting and for once timed nicely with increased daytime surface heating and peak CAPE/Li. Not the only factor of storm development, of course, but it can help.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Chris K

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm going to Lindos for a wedding...really need a holiday!! Over the past couple of weeks it has been stormy in that part of the world (not a complete wash out)

 

There have been fairly consistent signs (which is surprising given how far out it is) of a plume the week I get back...I certainly don't expect the charts to show that in a few days time, but it helps quell the disappointment of not being her Thursday night/Friday.

 

Still looking good for action across a wide portion of C/S England Thursday night and through Friday - again though a very fleeting affair.

Plume number 3?

Really??

Let's see how P2 does first!

[Cableguy]

Possibly too far East here in Surrey, not often you can say that! Wait and see i guess as a lot can(and probably will) change between now and tomorrow evening.

[Nouska]

A stunning image by Jean-Pierre Olmetta of explosive convection in Corsica - it looks like an eruption has happened.

 

 

http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2015/juin/orages-grele-vent-8-juin-2015-midi-pyrenees-languedoc-roussillon-alpes.html

[Staffordshire]

Possibly too far East here in Surrey, not often you can say that! Wait and see i guess as a lot can(and probably will) change between now and tomorrow evening.

'Too far east'

Well we don't hear this very often, unless we are talking about the storm itself!

[Lauren]

I'm going to Lindos for a wedding...really need a holiday!! Over the past couple of weeks it has been stormy in that part of the world (not a complete wash out)

 

There have been fairly consistent signs (which is surprising given how far out it is) of a plume the week I get back...I certainly don't expect the charts to show that in a few days time, but it helps quell the disappointment of not being her Thursday night/Friday.

 

Still looking good for action across a wide portion of C/S England Thursday night and through Friday - again though a very fleeting affair.

Lindos is lovely, have a fab time.

[StormChaseUK]

Already cloud spilling up from the south on the latest Sat, maybe some areas might get an unexpected storm today.

[Ellozee]

Loved that explosive convection.. got a less impressive picture of similar in east Kent last friday.. some slow crawling rumblers passing through all day. Fingers crossed for this week!

[sunnijim]

'Too far east'

Well we don't hear this very often, unless we are talking about the storm itself!

I think maybe for the frontal stuff,but with 30c now being progged by some output for SE England on Friday this area could see some isolated 'clear blue sky' supercells building in that sky.

[Mapantz]

NMM4 wants to bring something in on Thursday night for IoW and West..

 

 

It does look like a general a bit of a shift west and north overall.

The BBC and MetO give it completely dry, here on Thurs/Fri lol

[NO LONGER POSTING]

06z rolling out uh oh..

 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2015 by Surrey

[Mapantz]

And there's the yellow warning..

[Karl83]

Looking much better from an IMBY point of view, going by GFS 06z. EURO4 looks good too.

[Eskimo]

GFS 06z VERY different. Rain barely moves north and stalls across much of the south and west and then the Midlands. 

Edited June 10, 2015 by PerfectStorm

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS 06z VERY different. Rain barely moves north and stalls across much of the south and west and then the Midlands. 

Most definitely sticking with a more southerly, westerly shift, not good for the widespread activity.

[Chris K]

GFS 06z VERY different. Rain barely moves north and stalls across much of the south and west and then the Midlands. 

 

Indeed...let's see what this afternoons runs bring. Over the next couple of days I would personally shift to the higher resolution models (if you have access) and the MetO fax charts etc.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Don't understand these charts how can it vary so much from other models can someone explain please TA  

 

[alexisj9]

Don't understand these charts how can it vary so much from other models can someone explain please TA

 

Lightening wizard is still on 18z, that chart looks very good though. Not sure when it'will change to the 6z but I doubt it will look like this, not sure.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Does Guildford count as 'west'?

I would have thought Surrey and Hants were central South but in weather terms it seems to be split into East and West only and I don't know where that puts me :-(

[Captain Shortwave]

I don't quite know what to think of the 06z, it looks like the entire run so far has simply been given the steamroller treatment, the heat doesn't get as far north, the cold air following it doesn't get across the whole of the UK unlike the other runs. Probably the hi-res models are best and we will be getting into the Euro4 territory soon.

[sparky1972]

well looking at the met office warnings, i am right under that black line on its northern edge, so touch and go whether any storms make it this far, looking forward to the days output and peoples views

[Mapantz]

So many areas of strong PVA/vortmax lobes around England and Wales on the 700hpa chart, mix that with the instability and it's not surprising that some storms could be locally "severe" as the MetO put it.

[Chris K]

The models were generally being quite variable in the run up to last week's storms in the SE as well, showing precipitation for the W country when in fact we did not see anything at all.

 

Once the met office issued their warnings a couple of days before that 'event' - they were pretty much spot on I thought? Uncertainty always rife in these sort of scenarios. 

Edited June 10, 2015 by Chris K