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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

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chillyblast Contributor

chillyblast

Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder / lightning, Freezing rain, snow, ice and blizzards!
  • Location: Staffordshire Moorlands - 271m ASL
Posted (edited)

Hey all

 

So after last weeks storm(s) missed me completely, not even any rain! perhaps I might see the fringe of this if it pulls off? (East Northants)!!

 

Fingers crossed...

Edited by chillyblast
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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Honestly Gordon, you'd do yourself a massive favour by getting some help to overcome that fear. Anxiety is far too draining to just leave it.

Exactly, just think about how you could enjoy storms then, like the rest of us...

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

Exactly, just think about how you could enjoy storms then, like the rest of us...

We've always got to remember storms are an extremely rare occurance around here! ;)

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

Probably pointless watching the models now, but what time does the next run come out? 

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Probably pointless watching the models now, but what time does the next run come out? 

GFS 18z starts rolling out at 10:30pm sometimes 5 mins before

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

Honestly Gordon, you'd do yourself a massive favour by getting some help to overcome that fear. Anxiety is far too draining to just leave it.

 

Exactly, just think about how you could enjoy storms then, like the rest of us...

 

I definitely appreciate what anxiety can do to you. I have 1 fear that does cause me real anxiety.

 

Even for me thunderstorms do cause me some anxiety occasionally when they arrive for a short time especially night time storms but once I have my camera out filming and my bro is also filming slow motion at a good viewing spot out in my car the excitement just takes over and I really relax into it and then bam this amazing lightning happens and gives me a mental still photograph in my mind and its like wow! I remember 1 in particular from that 3 hour night time storm we had last year that seemed to form an eye over Norfolk on radar and rotate. Not sure to call it an MCV but it kind of looked good. It came up from the continent and just stalled over us.

 

Not getting too carried away and back to the point of your fear of Thunderstorms Gordon, if you keep away from windows indoors, keep the windows shut so that the thunder isn't deafening (which can be frightning) you are perfectly safe, try to relax and enjoy the show. Thunderstorms are essential for the planet.

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

We've always got to remember storms are an extremely rare occurance around here! ;)

All the more need to be able to enjoy them when they come!

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Latest fax charts are looking good for Friday - surface trough followed by the cold front.  Could be quite lively. However it looks like a lot of rainfall and flash floods could be a real possibility in some areas - not so good.

 

Not sure if the warm front moving in Thurs night/Fri morning could hinder anything with cloud though?

 

post-15172-0-61310500-1433963819_thumb.p

 

post-15172-0-53128300-1433963820_thumb.p

 

post-15172-0-15597100-1433963821_thumb.p

Edited by Chris K
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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

I've got the edge of a massive developing CB visible out of my kitchen window, coming up from the south. Just been out to drain my folding chair of at least 3 litres of water!


Latest fax charts are looking good for Friday - surface trough followed by the cold front.  Could be quite lively but either way it looks like a lot of rainfall and flash floods could be a real possibility in some areas.

 

Not sure if the warm front moving in Thurs night/Fri morning could hinder anything with cloud though?

 

attachicon.gif20150610.1622.PPVG89.png

 

attachicon.gif20150610.1631.PPVI89.png

 

attachicon.gif20150610.1739.PPVJ89.png

 

Latest fax charts are looking good for Friday - surface trough followed by the cold front.  Could be quite lively but either way it looks like a lot of rainfall and flash floods could be a real possibility in some areas.

 

Not sure if the warm front moving in Thurs night/Fri morning could hinder anything with cloud though?

 

attachicon.gif20150610.1622.PPVG89.png

 

attachicon.gif20150610.1631.PPVI89.png

 

attachicon.gif20150610.1739.PPVJ89.png

I really hope people don't get flooded, in any country. There are flood warnings  for the south of France too - those folks down there have had enough already...

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

I've got the edge of a massive developing CB visible out of my kitchen window, coming up from the south. Just been out to drain my folding chair of at least 3 litres of water!

 

I really hope people don't get flooded, in any country. There are flood warnings  for the south of France too - those folks down there have had enough already...

Justm looked at sat 24, it does look as though stuff is moving up from France now, but I think it's mostly just cloud for now. Not sure conditions are right for things to develop just yet, although might be worth keeping an eye on developments may be.

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted (edited)

Latest fax charts are looking good for Friday - surface trough followed by the cold front. Could be quite lively. However it looks like a lot of rainfall and flash floods could be a real possibility in some areas - not so good.

Not sure if the warm front moving in Thurs night/Fri morning could hinder anything with cloud though?

attachicon.gif20150610.1622.PPVG89.png

attachicon.gif20150610.1631.PPVI89.png

attachicon.gif20150610.1739.PPVJ89.png

Three shots at thundery activety then looking at the latest faxes.

,The warm front may well usher in some thundery showers especially toward the SW as it arrives around midnight Friday in the South,the trough feature arriving mid day Friday into the far South looks our best bet for severe thunderstorms for those favoured.

.The cold front moving North Friday evening and night could well see a few storms embedded in general heavy rain.Some intense local rainfall looks possible too from the isolated severe storms related to the trough and perhaps more widely via the cold front.

Edited by sunnijim
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

NMM is like a house on fire!

post-19153-0-37813200-1433964834_thumb.jpost-19153-0-18032200-1433964861_thumb.j

Chris would have liked a good Thunderstorm I'm sure he will get a good light display above. :)

MO: Isolated severe thunderstorms seem likely to develop on Friday, these succeeded by a band of more widespread heavy rain and occasional thunderstorms, moving gradually north later in the day, affecting much of the highlighted region into the early hours of Saturday morning.

The public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption, mainly from surface water flooding. Lightning and hail could also cause some impacts.

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted (edited)

Justm looked at sat 24, it does look as though stuff is moving up from France now, but I think it's mostly just cloud for now. Not sure conditions are right for things to develop just yet, although might be worth keeping an eye on developments may be.

Thunder now audible, but a long long distance away - always amplified by our hills and I'm thinking this is all I'll get! Yep, all gone for this evening.

Edited by Spikecollie
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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted (edited)

Three shots at thundery activety then looking at the latest faxes.

,The warm front may well usher in some thundery showers especially toward the SW as it arrives around midnight Friday in the South,the trough feature arriving mid day Friday into the far South looks our best bet for severe thunderstorms for those favoured.

.The cold front moving North Friday evening and night could well see a few storms embedded in general heavy rain.Some intense local rainfall looks possible too from the isolated severe storms related to the trough and perhaps more widely via the cold front.

 

A quick question

 

is the trough going to move north ahead of this cold front or will it stay in the far south or will the front overtake it later on in the day

 

edit - just read my post and that's 3 questions but you get the idea

Edited by Gordon Webb
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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

Thunder now audible, but a long long distance away - always amplified by our hills and I'm thinking this is all I'll get! Yep, all gone for this evening.

If your south of it, it could get to you unless it dissipates it does seem to be moving north.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

NMM is like a house on fire!

attachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpg

Chris would have liked a good Thunderstorm I'm sure he will get a good light display above. :)

MO: Isolated severe thunderstorms seem likely to develop on Friday, these succeeded by a band of more widespread heavy rain and occasional thunderstorms, moving gradually north later in the day, affecting much of the highlighted region into the early hours of Saturday morning.

The public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption, mainly from surface water flooding. Lightning and hail could also cause some impacts.

 

It'd be interesting as to how the charts come up with those values?! I've been looking at the custom skew-t charts, and i cannot find anywhere beyond 1500j/kg at T+48

During last weeks episode, the cape values on the day were around  three quarters of what the the GFS and NMM were projecting just 36hrs before. It'll be worth noting what they are again on the day. :)

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mickeyb44 Aficionado

mickeyb44

Posted
Posted

Hi, I hope its ok to ask this question in this forum, if not them im sorry for breaking forum rules.

Could Fridays storms produce lightning of the "dangerous positive charged tree destroying, house exterminating variety" ?

 

Im looking forward to it immensely and hope to be directly under it.

 

Thanks

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

This was the beebs thoughts for Friday back on Sunday

 

Untitled1312.png

 

This is the beebs thoughts tonight for Friday

 

Untitled1.png

 

Now it looks like the heavier rain will be overnight and during Saturday where it will be cooler in the north

 

Untitled2.png

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

This was the beebs thoughts for Friday back on Sunday

 

Untitled1312.png

 

This is the beebs thoughts tonight for Friday

 

Untitled1.png

 

Now it looks like the heavier rain will be overnight and during Saturday where it will be cooler in the north

 

Untitled2.png

 

Looks pretty pathetic when it is put in that format. :laugh:

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

Looks pretty pathetic when it is put in that format. :laugh:

 

STORMEO, STORMEO! wherefore art thou STORMEO
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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted

This was the beebs thoughts for Friday back on Sunday

 

Untitled1312.png

 

This is the beebs thoughts tonight for Friday

When it's nearly a week away they just give a rough idea of where rain is likely to be, it's not a bang on forecast they also said it is a developing situation so details may change nearer the time. I'd imagine anywhere south of about Manchester is in the firing line for possible storms! I don't normally post on here tbh but this made me wanna post for some reason

 

Untitled1.png

 

Now it looks like the heavier rain will be overnight and during Saturday where it will be cooler in the north

 

Untitled2.png

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

Looks a bit lonely on his own, so have given him some friends.  :angel:  

 

post-10703-0-53418000-1433971080_thumb.p

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richep Apprentice

richep

Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
Posted

I'm feeling fairly positive about this one , not often we get storm opportunities like this out in the west. Just hope I don't miss too much action as in work till 2 Friday afternoon. Looks good though none the less

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Looks a bit lonely on his own, so have given him some friends.  :angel:  

 

attachicon.gifpic comp.png

 

What the hell is tweety bird doing!? Umbrella during a storm? Madness!

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