Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Wilxy]

Lol where is he?! Oi youngan! haha!!!

 

No I do think Devon will be okay tonight and tomorrow morning, that chart is mainly for areas I think will be at risk from a more organised storm capable of producing large amounts of rain, medium sized hail and frequent CTG lightning 

 

I am sure he will be with us soon to tell us off   hopefully we will all have a good 48 hours to come but things can still change quite quickly even at this range

[Tim M]

^{Confused by forecasts ... GFS has hardly any rain for me in Mansfield whereas BBC/Met O predict a total torrential washout for Saturday and first half Sunday.}

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If I don't see an EF5 tornado tearing through my nearest field I will have some strong words for you tomorrow.

Let's hope it don't tear to close or you won't be saying anything :/

EF5 in this country though, got better odds of winning the lottery lol

[StormChaseUK]

Doing what it should do over here in Limousin - a nice, slow, baking buildup - 24c already. The Limoges METAR says storms from 1300-2300!

Indeed keep me posted, as what happens in Limousin will have a direct impact on Brittany also in terms of expected conditions/humidity, and thus what happens in North France will have an impact on channel isles and Southern UK.   With this air flow everything is interconnected. 

 

Rennes alerts are now showing Level 2 and Level 3 warnings.

[VillagePlank]

Here's the chart for London Heathrow, 3pm, tomorrow

 

 

Essentially, moderate convective potential (K = 32) with marginal instability (LI = -3) leading to likely thunderstorms (TT = 50) Silly amounts of rain likely in any cells (PW = 3.45)

Edited June 11, 2015 by Sparkicle

[gottolovethisweather]

Better than no potential!!

 

Oh yes, but potentially this could lead to an overheated argument between Thunder loving and Thunder hating folk in here so best we leave this discussion right there.   

 

On the aspect of respectful community relations, how about us storm chasers post up a selection of good local vantage points used over the years while we're killing time before the POTENTIAL beasts arrive.

 

For a kick off I'll start with Combe Gibbet in Berkshire, a mere 10 miles due SW of Newbury, Berkshire.

 

http://tinyurl.com/nan9heu

 

Next offer of local advice please guys n gals.

Edited June 11, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS 6z seems to follow previous patterns with widespread 24-25'c and high CAPE across southern England, not too much moving northwards which is a shame!

Edited June 11, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Oh yes, but potentially this could lead to an overheated argument between Thunder loving and Thunder hating folk in here so best we leave this discussion right there.   

 

On the aspect of respectful community relations, how about us storm chasers post up a selection of good local vantage points used over the years while we're killing time before the POTENTIAL beasts arrive.

 

For a kick off I'll start with Combe Gibbet in Berkshire

 

http://tinyurl.com/nan9heu

 

I got one

 

http://tinyurl.com/p6ht3ew

Edited June 11, 2015 by Surrey

[gottolovethisweather]

I got one

 

http://tinyurl.com/p6ht3ew

 

Nice one Surrey boy. Keep them coming peeps, could prove a useful resource, this. 

[Mapantz]

MetO update:

"Dorset and Wiltshire eastwards and south of the M4"

[gottolovethisweather]

Here is another option for folks in Wiltshire, coming courtesy of the CSE & SW regional.

 

For folk living near or willing to travel to Westbury, try http://tinyurl.com/nmpm3vx

Edited June 11, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Lauren]

BBC is not very optimistic at all for our chances in the SE, just showing rain shower symbol for later tonight and later tomorrow night.

 

I noticed when I was on holiday that the storms were following me with a 2 days delay. Up the West coast of Italy, along the Riviera and into France. Maybe I'm the shield???

Edited June 11, 2015 by Lauren

[sunnijim]

Oh yes, but potentially this could lead to an overheated argument between Thunder loving and Thunder hating folk in here so best we leave this discussion right there.   

 

On the aspect of respectful community relations, how about us storm chasers post up a selection of good local vantage points used over the years while we're killing time before the POTENTIAL beasts arrive.

 

For a kick off I'll start with Combe Gibbet in Berkshire, a mere 10 miles due SW of Newbury, Berkshire.

 

http://tinyurl.com/nan9heu

 

Next offer of local advice please guys n gals.

Two spots for South East LONDONers and EAST SUSSEXers. BLACKHEATH COMMON for a panaramic London skyline,great photo ops for potential lightning strikes on London landmarks.

EAST SUSSEX,High ground of HASTINGS Country park,panoramic views of the English Channel and in all other directions,and further West you have BEACHY HEAD,in EASTBOURNE

[gottolovethisweather]

MetO update:

"Dorset and Wiltshire eastwards and south of the M4"

Screenshot_2015-06-11-10-58-59.png

 

The guessing game continues but I did notice the likelihood of a significant storm rating has risen a notch, intriguing to say the least.

[A.J]

Hot spot update as promised... 

 

Bit more sophisticated this one   

 

HOT SPOT UPDATE.jpg

As a Thai hooker once said...."Me likely long time!" 😂

[weatherobsuk]

Any ideas what we're likely expected here 'oop norf?' amusingly in my village there's a 'water weekend' festival beginning on the Friday, with the rain expected i'm expecting it to live up to the name.

[Gordon Webb]

MetO update:

"Dorset and Wiltshire eastwards and south of the M4"

Screenshot_2015-06-11-10-58-59.png

 

I'm assuming the overnight risk is for more southern areas and not for my location just yet as I am anxious enough already about tomorrow without tonight also thrown into the mix

 

edit - should have read the warnings more carefully that warning covers the entire warning zone and doesn't mean storms from 1am onwards in my locale also main risk is south of my location which ties in with what others have said so I need a little perspective I think

Edited June 11, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Andy Pepler]

Here is another option for folks in Wiltshire, coming courtesy of the CSE & SW regional.

 

For folk living near or willing to travel to Westbury, try http://tinyurl.com/nmpm3vx

yupp the white horse carpark is allways a good spot .. i shall be there as it is only a mile away from me ..

[gottolovethisweather]

Two spots for South East LONDONers and EAST SUSSEXers. BLACKHEATH COMMON for a panaramic London skyline,great photo ops for potential lightning strikes on London landmarks.

EAST SUSSEX,High ground of HASTINGS Country park,panoramic views of the English Channel and in all other directions,and further West you have BEACHY HEAD,in EASTBOURNE

 

Thanks sunnijim, presumably Blackheath is this one - http://tinyurl.com/nn492o9 and Hastings would be as follows - http://tinyurl.com/nzkc9pj

 

I sense a new thread in the making?

[Hodgheg]

Not looking good for the south east id say. Over the years iv'e learned to not get too excited then anything at all becomes a bonus

[gottolovethisweather]

As a Thai hooker once said...."Me likely long time!"

 

I'm not going to give anyone a link to hotspots live that's for sure, at least not before the 9pm watershed has passed. 

 

In fact, all these locations aforementioned are not simply provided as storm chaser havens, I'm imagining there are all  sorts of extra curriculum activities available on site, especially past the twilight hour.

 

Back on topic I go. 

Edited June 11, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[ChezWeather]

Im keeping my hopes up as i remember July 19th last year when a storm formed near Swindon and survived all the way to here and beyond..

 

Different setup, but the potential is always there 

[Karl83]

For us in the West Country - Almondsbury View Point which looks out to South Wales. Excellent views for lightning shots.

 

Edited June 11, 2015 by Karl83

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm assuming the overnight risk is for more southern areas and not for my location just yet as I am anxious enough already about tomorrow without tonight also thrown into the mix

 

edit - should have read the warnings more carefully that warning covers the entire warning zone and probably also main risk is south of my location so I need a little perspective I think

 

Yes Gordon we know, tis only a risk currently so should simply be regarded simply as a risk at this stage. Take care now.

[Spikecollie]

Indeed keep me posted, as what happens in Limousin will have a direct impact on Brittany also in terms of expected conditions/humidity, and thus what happens in North France will have an impact on channel isles and Southern UK.   With this air flow everything is interconnected. 

 

Rennes alerts are now showing Level 2 and Level 3 warning

Here is the Rennes METAR - should update soon, this was a few hours ago:

 

Temporary

from 11 at 14 UTC to 12 at 06 UTC Visibility: 3000 m Broken clouds at a height of 2000ft, Cumulonimbus. thunderstorm, rain

 

Looking good, eh?