Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

looks to me that by far all our best chances are early Friday afternoon

 

my concern is that it might play out that the storms North France chuck out a load of upper level cloud

 

we get a load of morning murk on Friday

 

temperatures don't have chance to rise as high as models suggest, so we get even lower CAPE

 

and we're left with a mass of "thundery rain"

 

especially since peak instability is quite early in day - not much time for temps to recover if we have murk in the morning

 

I'd reckon west of spine of country has best chance of home grown storms - but nothing particularly exciting

 

I think S-East "may" have a chance of some decent imports -but low chance

I have to agree, you don't want anything tonight or early morning tomorrow it will kill some of the party Friday

[The PIT]

Looking good for the south but nothing here but a soggy day on Saturday. Tonight's run should be interesting.

[Mesoscale]

Looking like a mainly western thing, last weeks was a south east and east thing, and here we are sandwiched between both of them. Hmm, one day I may get lucky. I am hoping for a shift a bit east so that more people can get in on the action.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looking like a mainly western thing, last weeks was a south east and east thing, and here we are sandwiched between both of them. Hmm, one day I may get lucky. I am hoping for a shift a bit east so that more people can get in on the action.

It's going to come down to radar watching like ever also check the high res for tomorrow night, interesting to see tonight's run

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think this would have been more accurate:

 

Untitled.png

 

Have a feeling you're going be right (lol). It would be kinda typical really to see the storm possibilities for these next two days go down the pan, or at least seeing the potential getting pushed further and further South.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looking like a mainly western thing, last weeks was a south east and east thing, and here we are sandwiched between both of them. Hmm, one day I may get lucky. I am hoping for a shift a bit east so that more people can get in on the action.

Stranger things have happened.

17th July 2014 was supposed to be a SW event only. It ended up getting into Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire!

[Luke Best]

Estofex has a 15% thin yellow just teasing the south coast - so tomorrow night might not be the big show we initially thought...

 

Expect that chart to be updated.  The current chart is only valid until 6am Friday.

[Supacell]

This morning's forecasts and model runs keep the thunderstorm risk in the south, especially the south west. The first of three storm episodes will likely reach the far SW today (tip of Cornwall) before elevated storms become more widespread across the south coast tonight. There could be a few flashes and bangs overnight into early tomorrow.

 

Tomorrow daytime, provided there isn't too much cloud left over from overnight, areas to the south and west at risk of some home grown storms, these especially so in SW parts slightly inland from the south. I would be inclined to think SW of a line from Aberystwyth to Essex. These storms could have torrential rain, hail and gusty winds. This is still open to doubt though as it would require temperatures to get high enough.

 

Tomorrow evening a more coherent band of rain and thunderstorms moves into the south and pushes NNW through the Midlands and into Northern England. it looks like the thundery activity will be weakening on this by the time we get to Saturday morning but by this time most places south of say Liverpool to the Humber will have the opportunity to see a thunderstorm (of the elevated non severe variety). Even by Saturday the odd rumble cannot be ruled out.

 

From an IMBY point of view it therefore looks like a couple of dry and increasingly warm and humid days before some thundery rain on Friday night, and this is likely to have some lightning and thunder in it. If I was to guess a sweet spot I would be saying somewhere close to the Bristol channel - Somerset, Wiltshire, South Wales.

 

Of course we can look at all the models in the world but the reality is it will come down to radar watching as storms are unpredictable and all we can do is guess where the best ones will be.

 

EDIT: Latest NMM shows a shift south again. We don't want too much more of shift south.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Supacell

[daveywoo1977]

Meto playing it down for Friday now to Isolated thunderstorms and thundery rainband. Not looking as promising to me. More of an isolated affair in my eyes

[Sainsbo]

I know it's probably a good idea to completely ignore any of the precipitation charts, but the 0z NMM has a small area accumulating a total of 150-200mm by the end of this, with a wider area receiving up to 100-150mm, most of which falling in less than 6 hours.

 

Regardless where the storms may actually occur, whcih we probably won't know until we start nowcasting, the conditions are clearly there for someone to get it bad. Temperatures look like they will get widely into the mid 20's now, rather than just the SE forecast a couple of days ago

Edited June 11, 2015 by Sainsbo

[William Grimsley]

Things have changed dramatically. There was supposed to be thunderstorms tonight and now that's pretty much dissapeared from the charts, such a shame. I'm now going to have to wait until Friday afternoon for any actions which looks like being inland!

[Cableguy]

Media not having any of it this morning, scattered thundery downpours at best according to latest BBC/ITV forecasts, anybody know what has changed?

[William Grimsley]

Media not having any of it this morning, scattered thundery downpours at best according to latest BBC/ITV forecasts, anybody know what has changed?

The NMM. The run yesterday morning showed a good line of thunderstorms moving into SW England and now nothing is showing, even though BBC still going for something thundery later on so my hopes are not lost, yet. I think most people in SW England and further east have more chance tomorrow afternoon and evening now.

[Supacell]

I heard somewhere that the trigger temperature for tomorrow is around 24-25c. If that is not reached then home grown storms seem unlikely and we will be reliant on anything that pushes north out of France tonight and on the thundery rain band tomorrow evening/night. Still, tomorrow evening's rain band looks quite intense and thundery as it pushes into the south.

 

Euro4 looking good for the SW later today - Devon, Cornwall and SW Pembrokeshire.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Supacell

[Ben Sainsbury]

I heard somewhere that the trigger temperature for tomorrow is around 24-25c. If that is not reached then home grown storms seem unlikely and we will be reliant on anything that pushes north out of France tonight and on the thundery rain band tomorrow evening/night. Still, tomorrow evening's rain band looks quite intense and thundery as it pushes into the south.

 

Euro4 looking good for the SW later today - Devon, Cornwall and SW Pembrokeshire.

And at this point in time the majority of England are meant to be sitting at 24-25'c tomorrow, it's extremely borderline!

[Nouska]

The NMM. The run yesterday morning showed a good line of thunderstorms moving into SW England and now nothing is showing, even though BBC still going for something thundery later on so my hopes are not lost, yet. I think most people in SW England and further east have more chance tomorrow afternoon and evening now.

 

I wouldn't give up on on this evening just yet  ......

 

[William Grimsley]

I wouldn't give up on on this evening just yet  ......

 

Yeah, there is definitely some chance.

 

On another note, I don't have a clue where the BBC are getting their chart data from. They're now only showing very isolated heavy showers for Friday now. Most models are agreeing a more general widespread outbreak of thunderstorms...

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking a the output this morning, I would narrow the area for the potential for severe thunderstorms to develop (now probably in a narrow area between Oxford and Bristol, perhaps pushing into parts of East Wales). That said the south west does look good to pick up some thunderstorms out of France tomorrow morning.

For everyone else it will be a case of watching developments over France and seeing if they can push northwards quickly tomorrow evening before the thundery element dissipates somewhat as we head into the night. At the moment southern counties look good but London northwards looks a little knife edge with the mid-level cape diminishing quickly after sunset. That said the models could be wrong and the thundery element could be preserved well into the night.

Temperatures look decent

26/27C looks reachable over a wide part of central/southern England and importantly it is also in the areas at highest risk of storms during the day tomorrow.

Fingers crossed anyway because this might be it for a while as high pressure builds in from the south west next week to bring fine and warm conditions.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not sure why all the bad comments? These charts are tasty.. 

 

It don't matter really what the models show.. 

 

These 2 are your best tool:

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

[shaky]

my word tomorrow is looking close to being hot!!!temps of 24 25 degrees were forecasted only for the south east couple of days ago but now its looks like we gona see those temps more widely across england!!infact it gets close to 25 degrees in manchester on the nmm chart !!close to hot if you ask me!!the warm temps more widely is probably down to the fact that the thunderstorms have been pushed further south which means clearer skies further north and therefore more sunshine!!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Tony Gilbert of ukweatherworld have produced his forecast for tomorrow:

 

Moderate Risk of Thunderstorms with moderate sized hail England 06z-00z (Extent of coverage uncertain)

Slight Risk of Funnel Cloud/ Weak Tornado Development


Basic synop;

High pressure mid Atlantic and Scotland create a 'no pass zone' across northern UK. Low pressure stacked vertically with upper breakaway trough Biscay. Warm front drifts northward from the continent then slows and could become stationary over southern England.Weak vertical Shear though strong surface convergence zones likely at surface.

Another 'Spanish Plume' event possible through Friday. Though maybe not so classic in that the theta plume looks to originate primarily from southern France and the western Med. Nevertheless we could initially see isolated elevated thunderstorms along southern counties by early morning spread slowly northwards.By early afternoon

WRF and NMM, initially forecast ML CAPE to 2300 j/kg thoughGFS is more realistically slightly less. CAPE bolstered by increasing dew points along a line of moisture convergence looks to build at surface with the potential for surface based thunderstorms. These convergence zones could well see a number of funnel cloud/ weak tornadoes develop as per map. With a classic converging surface vector the horizontal shearing looks classic for such events. LCL looks to lower by late afternoon to under 2000ft.(though contrary to common belief; convergence zone tornadoes do not require low LCL to exist. In fact some of the best documented cases are in fact from very high based clouds! The key is to understanding that the vorticity is derived from pre existing vertical vorticies along the boundary of hard confluent air masses.)

Potential for cloud tops to punch through above 34,000ft!(This is quite exceptional for the UK) The overall opinion is maybe moderate for thunderstorms though spatial coverage less sure at this point. Models indicate strongest forcing initially occurring over Cornwall then propagate east through the day.Whilst the storm motion will in fact be toward ENE.

[Supacell]

I now have tomorrow off and so will be chasing tomorrow, I finally buckled . My current plan is to head down the M5 towards the Wiltshire area for the morning. I may even leave tonight if early hours storms look like getting inland from the coast. I hope to be where the biggest chance of homegrown storms are tomorrow before tracking and chasing the expected storm band northwards back to home on Friday night.

[Cableguy]

Not sure why all the bad comments? These charts are tasty..

It don't matter really what the models show..

These 2 are your best tool:

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

I'm sure the media forecasters have access to more data than we do and they don't seem that interested this morning, what's the betting that theirs a few storms into the SW tonight and that the residual cloud kills he heat tomorrow inhibiting any chance of homegrown storms been there oh so many times in recent years Edited June 11, 2015 by Cableguy

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm sure the media forecasters have access to more data than we do and they don't seem that interested this morning, what's the betting that theirs a few storms into the SW tonight and that the residual cloud kills he heat tomorrow inhibiting any chance of homegrown storms been there oh so many times in recent years

 

Media can make you believe what they want. Why I pay no attention to news papers or the news.

[Supacell]

Media can make you believe what they want. Why I pay no attention to news papers or the news.

 

Absolutely. Also the BBC forecasts stress the uncertainty of tomorrow's forecast and so things could be more or less widespread and in different areas than what they are currently showing. I think it is clear we have a plume pushing in tomorrow and this means things could pop up anywhere from late today onwards - restricted to the SW for today though and Midlands southwards tomorrow. Tomorrow night could still bring thundery weather further north yet, it's not set in stone.

 

My current chase plan could be totally different by the time I get home from work and different again by this time tomorrow.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Supacell