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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

There's no shunt East, it has moved it South, more in line with the MetO.

 

Previous run:

 

attachicon.gifviewimage (6).png

 

Current run:

 

attachicon.gifviewimage (7).png

 

For my benefit I hope it moves N again otherwise it's another bust here :(

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Starting to get very excited about this as it looks like it could deliver for quite a wide area, and being on a Friday makes it even better. Annoying thing is I will be stuck in the cinema Friday evening watching the new Jurassic Park film, potentially completely oblivious to stormageddon happening outside lol!

Sell the tickets... It will be the most sensible thing to do!

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snowprincesspboro Apprentice

snowprincesspboro

Posted
  • Location: peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: extremes, snow, thunder, hot heat, ice cold, etc
  • Location: peterborough
Posted

Anyone reckon peterborough may see something? I was just a few miles too west for the nice storm last Friday :(

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

For my benefit I hope it moves N again otherwise it's another bust here :(

To be honest I would rather shunt the lot north too, if this is going to be a bust for the south east I would rather be basking in temperatures into the 80F with plenty of sunshine rather than grey, cool and drizzly because the plume is held south of here.

GFS and NMM outputs both slightly underwhelming in that regard and slightly worrying that they both pulled the same trick (hence to say there could be a possible trend).

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Looking like a bust here, too far North 

 

Aye I was daring to get quite excited last night, the 18z was perfect. Alas it happens every single time. We can only hope we can get a 50 mile or so shunt N to at least bring us into reckoning. As it stands, any more S shifts and I wont even see any precipitation at all. I haven't heard thunder for about 12 months and haven't seen a proper storm since March 2014!

Edited by CreweCold
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

To be honest I would rather shunt the lot north too, if this is going to be a bust for the south east I would rather be basking in temperatures into the 80F with plenty of sunshine rather than grey, cool and drizzly because the plume is held south of here.

GFS and NMM outputs both slightly underwhelming in that regard and slightly worrying that they both pulled the same trick (hence to say there could be a possible trend).

 

I'm hoping it's just because the NMM is based on the GFS? Though the other models do look further S than the 18z of last night generally so I wont hold my breath. The GEM solution wouldn't be too bad as it does at least get the thundery rain here.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

There's such a wide area to be covered, a storm could pop up almost anywhere on Friday (within the parameters of course)

Athough we all want some storm action, there's also a focus on excessive rainfall totals to be had. Devon/Somerset/Wilts/Gloucs & South Wales could well be in the firing line for that, NMM has been quite consistent, GFS to an extent too. I reckon it'll be a lively night for some lucky/unlucky folks?!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

youre not allowed any storms after your snow in the winter just gone!

Ah, ze oberstormbahnfuhrer has spoken! Zere vill be no storms in Chesterfield! :D

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Friday afternoon I will be chasing! Early finish could not be timed better.

 

 

im also thinking of getting out... Where you planning on heading?

 

 

I also finish early on friday(2pm),it could be a long chase for me,i will be watching the 12z behind the sofa lol

 

i hope there is more of a push north,there still is time for that.

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

There's such a wide area to be covered, a storm could pop up almost anywhere on Friday (within the parameters of course)

Athough we all want some storm action, there's also a focus on excessive rainfall totals to be had. Devon/Somerset/Wilts/Gloucs & South Wales could well be in the firing line for that, NMM has been quite consistent, GFS to an extent too. I reckon it'll be a lively night for some lucky/unlucky folks?!

Chasing could be very risky with progged rainfall totals I would think.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Ah, ze oberstormbahnfuhrer has spoken! Zere vill be no storms in Chesterfield! :D

 Not if THE PITS shield is working in Sheff.

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted (edited)

There's such a wide area to be covered, a storm could pop up almost anywhere on Friday (within the parameters of course)

Athough we all want some storm action, there's also a focus on excessive rainfall totals to be had. Devon/Somerset/Wilts/Gloucs & South Wales could well be in the firing line for that, NMM has been quite consistent, GFS to an extent too. I reckon it'll be a lively night for some lucky/unlucky folks?!

The latest euro 4 and nnm kill those storms rapidly Thursday night into Friday for the south West :( Edited by Surrey
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

everything has moved further south than east!!!could easily move back northwards on the 12z!!at least its not moved east hey!!!!in these situations the models always drag things further south as we get closer to the time!!!think channel low during winter!!

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SnowJoke Enthusiast

SnowJoke

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
Posted

Hoping to see a storm Friday here. Looks like I'm in a prime location, would love to see clear skies all day building temps and CAPE and the storms break out in the evening and continue into darkness. Really need to try and get some nice lightning shots when it's dark.  :D

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted (edited)

just seen the met weather warning very localised storms then more general rain and thunder later for friday , suspect I'm just on the northern edge of this really hopes it moves south again (prepares for incoming fire)

Edited by Gordon Webb
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

I suspect I'm just on the northern edge of this really hopes it moves south again (prepares for incoming fire)

We can only wait and see Gord! Hope for your sake it misses you. I'll be up for chasing this as to wherever it will impact most.

I'm up for perhaps travelling as far as Berkshire or Surrey, perhaps the M3!

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted (edited)

We can only wait and see Gord! Hope for your sake it misses you. I'll be up for chasing this as to wherever it will impact most.

I'm up for perhaps travelling as far as Berkshire or Surrey, perhaps the M3!

 

hope so too but it's all up in the air even at this late stage but even if i'm unlucky enough (my opinion) to see some it's all gone by Saturday as these plumes don't seem to last like they used to

 

To be honest I'm less worried about the more persistant thundery rain than the storms that might develop ahead of it don't know why I am but I am

 

At least the Met Warning only mentions lightning not frequent Lightning , a very small crumb of comfort

 

on a unrelated note can't believe how close to the longest day we are , days are soon to be drawing in again

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

The latest euro 4 and nnm kill those storms rapidly Thursday night into Friday for the south West :(

 

Hi Surrey - what is that based on? If it is precipitation, could that not just be the fact storms may be more elevated in nature? Have not had the chance to look at other parameters yet.

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Staffordshire Aficionado

Staffordshire

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
Posted

So here's my reckoning from the 12z

Perfect cross model agreement of a super electrified CG-madness MCS cell to envelope the whole country from 3-7pm, lightining every 2 secs and darkness in daylight.... Of course with no damages/injuries

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

The latest euro 4 and nnm kill those storms rapidly Thursday night into Friday for the south West :(

Probably because the initial burst of energy moves off to the West into the Atlantic but there will be plenty more energy to come into Friday. It may well help because less cloud left over means higher temps/humidity building Friday morning and then it could all kick off from midday onwards and particularly mid afternoon into the evening.

 

Having said that I wouldn't be surprised to see some elevated activity moving inland from the South Coast first thing on Friday.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

There is no point in looking at PPN charts as its always different on the actual day best example was last weeks event, best sticking with Cape and LI along with convergence zones and the upper winds to see where things go from there! 

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited)

Uk Weather Scientific's take on things...safe to say my excitement is building being near the middle of a warning zone for a change...subjects to amendments of course:

 

Their probability map (0-1 scale with 1 being 100% risk):

 

post-15172-0-43618100-1433948742_thumb.p

 

http://www.weatherscientific.co.uk/2015/06/10/very-lively-friday-biggest-storms-of-the-year-for-some/

 

Looking forward to ESTOFEX's thoughts.

Edited by Chris K
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

If last Friday was not a good enough lesson for people - plumes mean carnage and complete unpredictability!

 

Storms fired in places which no model accurately depicted and where storms had been shown to fire, they didnt.

 

Once the humid air is in place, sit and wait. 

 

A key thing to be mindful of is storms can fire in 15-20 minutes, going from Cu puff to fully electrified and torrential storm.

 

Look for these signs (taken during last Friday's plume) and keep your fingers crossed :D

post-3790-0-28184600-1433948994_thumb.jp

post-3790-0-21862300-1433949001_thumb.jp

Edited by Harry
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