Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Meanwhile, 1 year ago today...

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not getting excited yet will wait until Thursday as things can change very rapidly. Even on the day storms can show up where they not supposed to do and not appear where they should.

Best post read this afternoon

Dudes ignore the GFS ppn charts wait for the high res to come in tomorrow afternoon and Thursday to see any finer details, convergence zones etc.

Many of (myself included) got over excited last time (guess due to the fact is was a real chance instead of pulse storms we have been having that last no longer than half an hour)

But come tomorrow afternoon and Thursday I'll be getting beers in for Friday day time if they look like they do now

Edited June 9, 2015 by Surrey

[Mapantz]

I'd happily take both of these..

The 10 and 12KM higher res NMM models have been quite consistent over the last three days. There could be some localised flooding issues if they come to fruition.

GFS: Similar situation, particularly in the West.

Edited June 9, 2015 by Mapantz

[Weather-history]

Meanwhile, 1 year ago today...

 

It was a year ago since this impressive cell hit the NW of England gave hail in places

[A.J]

interesting NMM12z 12k model run....elevated thunderstorms for southern counties late thursday night into friday morning......more interesting for me though though is friday afternoon.....the run infers (IMO) an MCS to develop over northern France drifting into southern counties during the afternoon/evening period with strong CAPE and lift throughout the Trop and a high degree of deep layer shear & strong 850/925 hpa wind flow (definition for low level jet?) suggesting storms could be well organized

[William Grimsley]

interesting NMM12z 12k model run....elevated thunderstorms for southern counties late thursday night into friday morning......more interesting for me though though is friday afternoon.....the run infers (IMO) an MCS to develop over northern France drifting into southern counties during the afternoon/evening period with strong CAPE and lift throughout the Trop and a high degree of deep layer shear & strong 850/925 hpa wind flow (definition for low level jet?) suggesting storms could be well organized

It looks like Devon could be in the firing line on Thursday evening as more general heavy and thundery rain moves up from France along with some embedded or separate thunderstorms. Could see something later on Friday as well.

Edited June 9, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Azazel]

For the past few years i've dreamed of being stood in my spot, which overlooks the town with an uninterupted view to the south and capturing a monster gust-front on camera. Could Friday be the day?

[Daniel*]

Very decent looking around London and Home Counties northwards into Bedfordshire, Northants, Cambs etc.

Not bad at all:

[Hirudine]

Meanwhile, 1 year ago today...

 

 

 

What a monster! Been a very long time since I've seen something like that IRL.

[IanR]

It was a year ago since this impressive cell hit the NW of England gave hail in places

i was under that,  last daytime thunder I have heard to date,  constant thunder for a while , frequent cg's  some local properties were damaged by lighting strikes, it was a true corker and like a beefy continental storm ,   not my vid BTW

 

skip to 7.10  just before the marble size  hail kicks off 

Edited June 9, 2015 by IanR

[Mapantz]

The MetO have been frivolous with the thunder icon on the latest update, particularly for the southwest early Friday and then further north as the day progresses.

It echoes aj's sentiments regarding the NMM, I'd say.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking good for Cornwall and Devon Thursday and Friday so far.  Here does well if the winds are east of South which looks like may happen.

Edited June 9, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Karl83]

I would be over the moon with this. I have not seen the double lightning thunderstorm symbol before but must remain calm! Do not get excited! lol

 

 

 

[Noahjoe]

I would be over the moon with this. I have not seen the double lightning thunderstorm symbol before but must remain calm! Do not get excited! lol

 

Screenshot_2015-06-09-22-06-19.png

Our of interest what is that app?? I think it would get me too over-excited

[Karl83]

Our of interest what is that app?? I think it would get me too over-excited

WeatherPro - Very good app with excellent functionality.

[Mapantz]

I would be over the moon with this. I have not seen the double lightning thunderstorm symbol before but must remain calm! Do not get excited! lol

 

Screenshot_2015-06-09-22-06-19.png

The BBC and MetO certainly do seem to favour the west & southwest from what I've seen.

I suspect a yellow warning may pop up tomorrow or Thursday, for excessive rainfall. :O

[Noahjoe]

WeatherPro - Very good app with excellent functionality.

Good to know! I only have MetO on my android phone

[Thunderbolt_]

The BBC and MetO certainly do seem to favour the west & southwest from what I've seen.

I suspect a yellow warning may pop up tomorrow or Thursday, for excessive rainfall. :O

 

Nice to see a bit of a role-reversal in the favoured areas. There's been so many times where the west has just been a breeding ground for storms that batter the east, without actually getting involved in any of the fun. Hopefully the east will generate them, and the west will take the pounding, this time...

Edited June 9, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Costa Del Fal]

Euro4 looks to bring some of the first storms/rain into Cornwall Thursday morning/Lunch. The SE wind/NW direction really will favour the West this time.

[Cornishdave]

Looking promising though the netweather charts don't look so promising, maybe the storm risk maps will update soon? On another note estofex is back online

[Chris K]

I would be over the moon with this. I have not seen the double lightning thunderstorm symbol before but must remain calm! Do not get excited! lol

 

Screenshot_2015-06-09-22-06-19.png

Let's hope so! Just don't want it to be a frontal mess with the odd rumble

[Ben Sainsbury]

Don't you just love it when the BBC say the T word "Thunderstorms", the latest forecast talking about thunderstorms and intense downpours with flashes of lightning moving north over Friday night across widespread areas!

[Supacell]

The current forecasts and models are indicating to me that there will be a lot of thunderstorms for southern areas on Thursday night and Friday and they will be extended northwards but also tend to become more a spell of thundery rain - i.e. lots of rain with the odd flash and rumble - as opposed to thunderstorms. I am hoping I am reading it wrong for my area and further north of here.

[Convective]

18Z GFS will make people happy. Much more widespread activity on this run! Pushing further north too!

 

Only just seen today's 12Z NMM and that looks stunning too. Lets just get a bit more of northerly momentum on that plume and this could be a good one for many who usually miss out!

Edited June 9, 2015 by Convective

[BlueHedgehog074]

Meanwhile, 1 year ago today...

 

That'll do perfectly for Friday evening.   

(though perhaps I should be careful what I wish for (lol), as a storm like that could be quite dangerous).

Edited June 9, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine