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Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted (edited)

looks like it's a knife edge for my location just have to wait and see but areas to the south of me look more prone

 

met office has nothing tomorrow execpt a bright start with cloud thickening later until heavy and thundery rain pushes north overnight

Edited by Gordon Webb
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Absolutely. Also the BBC forecasts stress the uncertainty of tomorrow's forecast and so things could be more or less widespread and in different areas than what they are currently showing. I think it is clear we have a plume pushing in tomorrow and this means things could pop up anywhere from late today onwards - restricted to the SW for today though and Midlands southwards tomorrow. Tomorrow night could still bring thundery weather further north yet, it's not set in stone.

 

My current chase plan could be totally different by the time I get home from work and different again by this time tomorrow.

Same. My plan now would invite me to take the A421 through MK and on into Oxfordshire.

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Staffordshire Aficionado

Staffordshire

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
Posted

Bit confused as to the evenings band, it seems to be heading in a more northerly direction yet the storms during the day seem to be more NW?

Could anyone confirm what direction each will be moving in?

Thanks

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Tony Gilbert of ukweatherworld have produced his forecast for tomorrow:

 

Potential for cloud tops to punch through above 34,000ft!(This is quite exceptional for the UK) The overall opinion is maybe moderate for thunderstorms though spatial coverage less sure at this point. Models indicate strongest forcing initially occurring over Cornwall then propagate east through the day.Whilst the storm motion will in fact be toward ENE.

attachicon.gifrisk.jpg

34,000 feet in the UK - wow - that is erm amazing!

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

34,000 feet in the UK - wow - that is erm amazing!

Especially as long as their is no cloud cover, and clear skies surrounding such cells; then these storms will be extremely photogenic!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I would position myself north of reading that way you slap bang in the middle

not a bad shout Luke.....I live nr Swindon, so I'll be trawling up and down the M4 corridor tomorrow with camera in tow

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Doing what it should do over here in Limousin - a nice, slow, baking buildup - 24c already. The Limoges METAR says storms from 1300-2300!

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

the big word there is POTENTIAL

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

Been speaking to the guy that owns MET money (weather scientific) 

 

Slight alterations seem possible but if any are necessary they will be made later this evening. You can always expect to see fluctuations in CAPE readings even 12 hours before an event it is natural. As you probably know CAPE is very sensitive to moisture advection and diurnal heat variations and the models do the best they can to try and replicate the most likely outcome. The overall trend so far is for a more Westerly tilt and EC12 and GFS06 and 12 will firm things up a little more. Expect minor changes in CAPE distribution and convergence zones right up until initiation because that is just meteorology and it will never change.


not a bad shout Luke.....I live nr Swindon, so I'll be trawling up and down the M4 corridor tomorrow with camera in tow

 

Shame I can't drive or I would be pulling a sicky tomorrow for this... 

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

the big word there is POTENTIAL

 

Better than no potential!!

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Met office has lots of thunderstorm symbols for here tomorrow at present. Risk of a storm this evening here too. :)

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted

Media can make you believe what they want. Why I pay no attention to news papers or the news.

Completely agree!

 

Chances are far greater than last Friday for a lot of South / South Western areas regardless of what the media say!

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

Calm before the storm - cloudy here in North France, no activity at all through France at the moment but the sunshine is breaking through.

 

Could be a major day

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Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted

Toasty and tasty....

 

lgzKUrJ.gif    124o28W.png

 

I'll tell it to make sure to visit the UK tonight.    :D  :bomb:                                                                                                                

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

The yellow warning will be amended as soon as the MetO have all their data in, there's no doubt about that.

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted (edited)

The yellow warning will be amended as soon as the MetO have all their data in, there's no doubt about that.

 

can't see the yellow area changing much as even though it looks possible that storms before the band of rain will be further south the band of thundery rain is still moving North getting to Bristol by Evening if you believe the met forecast for the area seems best chance of storms might be ealier in the day not that I want any although I'm just guessing

 

just out of curiosity where and when is the peak instability as someone a couple pages back says it was early in the day tomorrow

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Calm before the storm - cloudy here in North France, no activity at all through France at the moment but the sunshine is breaking through.

 

Could be a major day

Slow is best - we want it getting nice and warm which it is doing down here in Limousin. The cloudscape keeps changing here, there's a lot going on up there.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

can't see the yellow area changing much as even though it looks possible that storms before the band of rain will be further south the band of thundery rain is still moving North getting to Bristol by Evening if you believe the met forecast for the area seems best chance of storms might be ealier in the day although I'm just guessing

 

just out of curiosity where and when is the peak instability as someone a couple pages back says it was early in the day tomorrow

Well, the yellow warning could probably be halved. I'm anticipating an amber warning too, for excessive rain for parts of the west/south west. It does sound drastic, but it is slightly worrying how much rain is being modelled to fall across the hillier areas.

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted (edited)

Hot spot update as promised... 

 

Bit more sophisticated this one  :rofl:  :bomb:

 

attachicon.gifHOT SPOT UPDATE.jpg

 

 

 

Hmm I'm just to the north

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Hot spot update as promised... 

 

Bit more sophisticated this one  :rofl:  :bomb:

 

attachicon.gifHOT SPOT UPDATE.jpg

 

Don't forget Devon otherwise William will be pulling his hair out :D looking at the latest charts Devon would also be at risk especially tonight into tomorrow morning. :bomb:

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

Don't forget Devon otherwise William will be pulling his hair out :D looking at the latest charts Devon would also be at risk especially tonight into tomorrow morning. :bomb:

 

Lol where is he?! Oi youngan! haha!!!

 

No I do think Devon will be okay tonight and tomorrow morning, that chart is mainly for areas I think will be at risk from a more organised storm capable of producing large amounts of rain, medium sized hail and frequent CTG lightning 

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Lol where is he?! Oi youngan! haha!!!

 

No I do think Devon will be okay tonight and tomorrow morning, that chart is mainly for areas I think will be at risk from a more organised storm capable of producing large amounts of rain, medium sized hail and frequent CTG lightning 

 

If I don't see an EF5 tornado tearing through my nearest field I will have some strong words for you tomorrow.

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