Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[Snowman.]

Pasted from other thread blue box is the more severe one 

 

TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2015/004 and TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2015/007

A TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH and CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION have been issued at 21:35GMT on Friday July 3rd 2015

Valid from/until: 21:35-06:00 (SVR WATCH) and 21:25-12:00 (CONV DISCUSSION) on Friday July 3rd/Saturday July 4th 2015 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Much of England along with SE Wales (SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH)

Much of western England/Wales into Scotland, and eastern Ireland, and Northern Ireland (CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION)

THREATS

SVR WATCH (blue box): Hail to 20-50mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; frequent CG lightning; locally heavy rainfall.

CONV DISCUSION (yellow box): Hail to 15mm diamter; wind gusts to 50mph; CG lightning; locally heavy rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

A plume of moisture and instability is moving quickly northwards across the British Isles this evening. Scattered thunderstorms have formed along the warm front in N Wales/N Midlands, and within the moisture plume close to Dorset. Other thunderstorms have formed close to southern Ireland. As a strong upper trough moves in overnight, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across much of the British Isles, but the higher instability/shear combination will be reserved for the severe thunderstorm watch area. However, within this area, there is a stronger capping inversion, especially with south-eastward extent. Thus, storms may be more isolated towards SE England, and indeed may not develop here at all.

The mixture of ~1000J/Kg of elevated CAPE and shear values of 30-40 knots across the severe thunderstorm watch area suggests that elevated supercells and well-organised multicells may develop, bringing the risk of large hail and locally strong winds. If storms tend to congeal into one or more clusters, or even an MCS, a more widespread wind threat could emerge. The tornado risk is considered low due to the slightly elevated nature of the storms. However, there may be a brief window of oppurtunity in the higher instability area in the south-east of the watch.

For the convective discussion area, CAPE is somewhat more meagre, although forcing for ascent from the approaching upper trough will be stronger, and so thunderstorms are still likely. A few may become strong with moderately large hail and a few strong wind gusts.

The activity will continue to shift northwards overnight with the risk decreasing quickly in the wake of it across southern and central areas later in the night.

Forecaster: RPK.

 

Edited July 3, 2015 by SN0WM4N

[weathertoski]

I can see the lightning from this ~Sussex cell from my south facing Twickenham loft!

[exodus]

they seem to be pushing in a northerly direction, the biggun should head over east london.

[Lauren]

The main event, if it hits us, isn't until about 2am, yes?

[Nath]

Instant storms appearing  WOW never seen anything like this!

[Storme]

Minor precipitation at 22:45. Small cell moved from south to north very quickly. Not the one previously mentioned. Dog going doolally. I maybe in for a looooooong night me thinks!

[Snowman.]

The main event, if it hits us, isn't until about 2am, yes?

 

Past midnight this is the teaser however this could well be the main event either we score very big or we score nothing at all.

[Lauren]

How are people seeing this from London, I can't see 'owt from Medway?.??

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The main event, if it hits us, isn't until about 2am, yes?

Yes this is right,these cells are a good sign though

[tomp456]

One strike east of Shoreham, so close yet so far !! 

[weathertoski]

Wow! massive strike in the distance to my south. I must be 30 miles away but looked like cloud to ground!

[tomp456]

Nice lot of sferics coming north of Brighton now 

[nicol@]

Wondering if I should get a tiny sleep before something arrives. I don't have much of a view south from East London, but my north view is better if anything comes over.

Phone is charged and camera ready.

[pureasthedriven]

Horley (Gatwick) doing it's usual 'hole in the sky' malarkey but intermittent flashes round and about gathering. No thunder. Breezy.

[weathertoski]

At least half a dozen cells now south of London!

[Dangerous]

Lightning in Dover Straits too. Visible from Ramsgate

Edited July 3, 2015 by Dangerous

[rach76]

quite breezy hear in peacehaven and lots of lightning seems from all directions  

[Mark wheeler]

Lots of activity now . Quite frequent lightning . Developing quickly

[weathertoski]

Distant lightning every 5-10 seconds now from my south facing (loft) vantage point in Twickenham... 

[suffolkboy_]

Some development now over east and mainland kent, all boding well for East Anglia later

[Nath]

Amazing how these can form in 30 mins! Nature is mazing!

[anything-but]

T & L just now in Greenhithe.

[Ellozee]

Happy to report a tall thunderhead looking south toward Dover. Top was visible anvil in the moonlight. Regular lightning and loud rumbles.

[nicol@]

I just heard Thunder, Lightning fork too

[weathertoski]

Starting to rain lightly